Hey Jimmyle,
Really interesting. Fun facts to spead when someone says housing never goes down, or if it does, it will only be by a few percent.
Ok, to add alittle of my own information. It isnt as good as yours, but considering I am sick in bed and bored out of my mind, please forgive.
I have been noticing that alot of the price reductions are local. This is obvious on the break down of the case shiller index into high, medium and low catagories. I decided to think of a few traditional middle class/lower middle class neighborhoods that would correspond to “median” income buyer, and see what was happening with sales. (I know this has been done a few times, but I wanted to do it myself.) I left out the really nice areas, and the inner city ghetto areas, mostly because I dont want to do the work.
Ok, first the problems I have identified, then the data. I dont have all the tools available to some on this board, so I just limited myself to was was available on Signonsandiego.com homesearch. They have sales data available going back years, and a nice easy number of total sales available today in a certain zipcode/area. I used Nov. 07, and Nov. 05 as comparisons since those are the years you chose in this thread, correspond ok to peaks, and are the latest data available to me (Nov.07) There was the problem of the fact that I am comparing today’s inventory with Novembers sales. However I tried to go back and use the first week of November inventory as listed on the SDlookup page for each. However, the numbers were not too different and some were higher and some lower, so I just stuck with one source.
Here is what I got.
Considering that 4-6 months is traditionally considered a healthy market, this is a really mixed bag. December is usually a slow month, with low inventory and sales. The fact that Escondido (92025,6,7,9) has 17+ months on the market, in DECEMBER, spells price drops to me. But Clairmont(92117), has a very healthy market according to these numbers and sales were picking up, not going down. Since overall sales are still falling, and inventory, especially when gaged by one month in winter, is still high in alot of SD, there is no real bottom to be seen yet.
One more thing, I lumped condos, new building, and resales in together. Different segments are sure to be doing differently.
