[quote=deadzone]
Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).
Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.[/quote]
If it’s that predictable, then you’d be sitting with tens to hundreds of millions in the bank already. You might have missed the bottom in 2009, but if you leveraged to the hilt and buy a ton of real estate in 2009, you’d be sitting pretty. You’d then sell all those houses 6 months ago and take the tens of millions that you made and shorted the market by buying a TON of PUTs. By now, you’d have to have at least a few hundred million if not a billion.
