Hi everyone — the Case-Shiller data for August was released today. I am very busy this week so I’m going to put up a few graphs with a minimum of commentary.

Here is the nominal HPI decline since the November 2005 peak:

And here is the same series with the plain vanilla median and the size-adjusted median overlayed. The HPI is only available through August but I graphed the medians through September to show how much round two of the credit crunch has done to remove the artificial strength in the median-based indicators, especially the plain vanilla median.

Here is the same series deflated by the CPI. If you believe that the CPI has understated actual "inflation" in recent years, as I do, then the real decline from the peak has been even larger than the 14% displayed below. This graph at least gives a ballpark of real declines, however.

Here are long-term graphs of the HPI, nominal followed by real:

Note that round two of the credit crunch didn’t really show up in the price data until September, so it’s not actually reflected in the HPI numbers above. Nonetheless, the 1.3% month-to-month decline is the first we’ve seen since early 2007. I imagine that between seasonal weakness, increasing oversupply (in which the homes lost in the fire would only make a small dent), increasing must-sell inventory, and the phase 2 credit crunch, the HPI will continue to decline at a fairly rapid clip in the months ahead.