[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]Things are deteriorating faster than 2008 crash. This shouldn’t be surprising given the extreme overvalue due to Covid money. That crash started in early 2007 with the subprime lenders going under. It wasn’t for another year or so that broad market started to tank.
This collapse seems more like a hybrid of 2000 and 2007/8 crash. But I fear this will be much worse, at least for equities, since the Fed cannot pivot anytime soon. If they do, it will be clear to the world that they are strictly looking to protect the Wealthy (as if 2009 bailouts this wasn’t obvious to anyone with a brain cell). But this time there would be mass riots I fear as 8% inflation is crushing the lower class.[/quote]
The real question is, did you benefited from the crash (buying PUTs or shorting the stocks)? If you didn’t, did you benefited from the 2008 bounce back? If you didn’t, will you be able to recognize the bottom and take advantage of the next run up?[/quote]
Good point. While I made a lot of money shorting the 2007/8 crash, I did not recognize the 2009 bottom and lost back some of those gains by staying short too long. Specifically, the turning point was the Fed implementing QE in March 2009. At the time, nothing like QE had ever been done before in U.S. so there was no historical precedent (although Japan has been doing similar money printing for decades).
Fast forward to today, I see this market being far more predictable. Since 2009 the playbook has been “don’t fight the Fed”. That hasn’t changed. The folks getting crushed in the market today are making the mistake of fighting the Fed when they are in tightening mode. So the inflection point will be obvious, whenever the Fed decides to “pivot” and turn back on the money spigots. At this point, if you haven’t already, cover all your shorts and buy bitcoin, gold and long equities.[/quote]
If you didn’t exit those shorts in 07 and 08 you didn’t make a lot of money. You make it when you actually sell which was 09 and made less by your own admission.
And no comment about this year making money. So I guess it’s safe to assume you did not and are just cheering for bad things for others as usual.
Got In and out of nail long agoand made money by actually selling and realizing those gains. That’s how it works! You don’t seem to understand this either Edgar
