Yes, but my point is prices could drop, easily, another 30-50% before we hit bottom in 2012…
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Anything is possible. But the probabilities for various scenarios vary significantly. A 20% decline from here isn’t a stretch. A 30%-50% decline is a bit of a stretch, based on where prices would be relative to rents and income (even assuming some measure of decline in both). Doesn’t mean it can’t happen – anything is possible, after all – just means it’s unlikely. Also, more importantly (and more relevant to this thread), I’m guessing the folks here aren’t buying “average deals” – they’re looking for “bargains,” and today’s bargains (all relative, of course) will fall less than the median. Hell, even OCRenter (“renting sucks”) is buying. It doesn’t mean he’s right; just means a lot of the risk has been taken out of the equation if you do your homework.
