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Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › The stock market is tanking, we should be happy right????

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  • February 6, 2018 at 7:46 AM #22514
    Coronita
    Participant

    I remember there were a lot of folks here banking on a large correction to allow them to come out financially ahead versus everyone else….The rational was to sit out the market for a very long time, maybe years, and then when the market correct , jump right in and do much better than everyone else.

    I am just curious, now that we have a 1500+ pt Dow plunge, are you folks hoping for that crash now jumping in or are you waiting for an additional 1500pt plunge on top of another 1500pt plunge, just like waiting for real estate to correct 40-50% after previously correcting during the last meltdown.

    ….or were you a bear that finally capitulated after seeing the markets going up week after week, and jumped right into the market head and toe, when the markets were high..
    and are now part of this market correction just like most everyone else?

    it just seems like there are no cheerleaders of the market correction here, which is sort of surprising….because I thought this is exactly what some folks wanted… things seem really quite…

    What says you spdrun?

    February 6, 2018 at 8:23 AM #809189
    Anonymous
    Guest

    Look at the five year chart and the past few days is not even visible.

    February 6, 2018 at 8:46 AM #809190
    The-Shoveler
    Participant

    LOL I am still waiting for 5% FDIC CD’s to make a comeback.

    I am mostly out of the market just because of my age.

    The decline so far is interesting but not enough to get me excited yet and I don’t really think the market will sell off enough to get me back in.

    (The economy I think is still doing fairly well yet).

    Dow down 40-50% maybe I could get excited to put more money in (even despite my age).

    February 6, 2018 at 8:51 AM #809191
    scaredyclassic
    Participant

    I’m excited.

    February 6, 2018 at 7:46 PM #809193
    moneymaker
    Participant

    I’m happy that I’m not in but I may get back in if it drops more! My issue is that I’m talking about 401k here and I know bonds are not a good place to be either when rates are rising. I’m starting to think about retirement so I disagree with Vanguard that I should be 65% in. Perhaps later this week I will get 50% in, we’ll see.

    February 7, 2018 at 10:32 PM #809212
    kev374
    Participant

    c’mon man… 7% decline is not tanking, it went up that much just in Jan, mathematically it has to correct otherwise what kind of annual return are you expecting.. 150%?

    February 8, 2018 at 12:46 AM #809213
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=kev374]c’mon man… 7% decline is not tanking, it went up that much just in Jan, mathematically it has to correct otherwise what kind of annual return are you expecting.. 150%?[/quote]

    if you bought into the indexes at the beginning of the year, you are now negative . 7% is a lot. it’s slightly above a reasonable annual return.

    February 8, 2018 at 9:52 AM #809216
    Coronita
    Participant

    Dow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.

    February 8, 2018 at 9:56 AM #809217
    carlsbadworker
    Participant

    [quote=flu]Dow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.[/quote]

    500pts is a tiny blip in the long view:

    http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

    We are about 50% over-valued according to the chart above, so wake us up when you have 20 days like this in a roll.

    February 8, 2018 at 12:40 PM #809220
    carlsbadworker
    Participant

    [quote=flu]Dow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.[/quote]

    There are a few individual stocks that are dropping close to my buying range after today. Index still seems too expensive for me.

    February 8, 2018 at 12:58 PM #809221
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=carlsbadworker][quote=flu]Dow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.[/quote]

    There are a few individual stocks that are dropping close to my buying range after today. Index still seems too expensive for me.[/quote]

    I’ll just wait for my $5000 monthly auto investment to kick in end of February, March April, etc.

    10% loss since the beginning of the year. it will take a long time just to break even….home prices don’t even fall that quickly that fast in better parts of town. why worry about how expensive home prices are…at least one can live an an overpriced home that correct say 10%. one can’t live in index funds that correct 10%…

    I guess this is why a good portion of wealth is still made from old school rental property….much more predictable it seems.

    February 8, 2018 at 1:27 PM #809223
    FlyerInHi
    Guest

    [quote=flu]
    I guess this is why a good portion of wealth is still made from old school rental property….much more predictable it seems.[/quote]

    That’s a very observation flu. I prefer real estate.
    But, in real estate, you won’t become billionaire, or even multi-millionaire. Much easier and faster with stocks.

    February 8, 2018 at 2:07 PM #809224
    ucodegen
    Participant

    [quote=FlyerInHi][quote=flu]
    I guess this is why a good portion of wealth is still made from old school rental property….much more predictable it seems.[/quote]

    That’s a very observation flu. I prefer real estate.
    But, in real estate, you won’t become billionaire, or even multi-millionaire. Much easier and faster with stocks.[/quote]
    I ran some calcs a few years back and came up with decent and consistent returns above 10% for long periods of time with rentals. I factored in many things including tax advantages including depreciation allowance at income tax rate vs recapture capital gains at cap gains rates on taxes, the counter balance of asset appreciation vs money depreciation etc. It was part of a rent vs buy calc I did years ago. It was interesting and almost made me pull the trigger on getting rental property.

    As for the downturn, I expected it and am expecting a total of nearly 15%. Since I have been in the market (w/ not much churn), I am still ahead for the past year + 1 month by about 16%. Because I was expecting it, I was and am keeping a good sized block of cash on the side and am planning to use it once the day-traders wring and wipe themselves out.

    I think that part of what sparked it was that day-traders were expecting an ‘instant’ jump in earnings within the first month of the new tax law and panicked when they didn’t see it. They forgot it all depends upon what the date is for the corporate tax year, and one month does not a quarter’s earnings make.

    So its time to keep the cards close to the chest and keep the green casino visor down low over your eyes.. its still going to be bumpy, but patience pays off… ☺

    PS: With reference to Shiller PE graph, I find PEG more useful because it factors in growth. One is willing to tolerate a higher PE if there is strong growth. I also look at growth in revenues and how much is being paid for that and whether they have a chance of recapturing the cost. Looking at only PE is oversimplification.

    February 8, 2018 at 2:34 PM #809225
    Coronita
    Participant

    ouch. markets ended badly….are we back to March 2017 prices yet?

    funny thing is I got a bunch of CDs maturing on March 2018 too. maybe that was a good thing afterall, lol…..

    me thinks the indexes will be negative this year. gonna be difficult to recover this loss ….

    February 8, 2018 at 3:01 PM #809229
    spdrun
    Participant

    We’re back to Nov or Dec 2017, not March…

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