I don’t want to keep hijacking Andy Majumder’s thread on Northeast PQ but I just want to make some observations and opinions on AN’s take of price- ranges in certain zips.

AN, are you using recent ACTIVE listings to come up with your price ranges or are you using recent SOLDS??

It also appears you are using condo listings to skew the comps. A “condo” is NOT real property, IMO. It is a fractional interest in an “Association.” My post only referred to SFR’s but I did not make that clear.

I do NOT subscribe to Realist. I typed that piece in the NE PQ thread late last night without a map and from my HEAD. I’ve had many years experience sending subpoenas and performing service of process and also working as a RE salesperson in the street and going on caravans, but almost NONE of that experience was in North County. I just have a memory of certain landmarks in a particular area or on a particular corner and a pretty intimate knowledge of housing stock in SD, South and East County.

Many active listings are older actives where the sellers are still in La-La land, thinking they can get a certain “bubble” price for their property. They are worthless to use for the reason below.

Most of the purchase prices between 2004 and 2007 were inflated to “bubble” proportions because lenders loaned to anyone who could fog a mirror. UNDER A NORMAL LENDING ENVIRONMENT, the only folks who could pay over $600K for a home typically brought in a large chunk of cash. This appears to be where lending is returning to (hopefully).

AN, you might want to ask some active Pigg realtors here but people who qualify to purchase luxury property don’t necessarily qualify for a “jumbo” loan product or any loan at all. They plunk down cold hard cash. They may not necessarily even have any “income” except for trust, annuity and interest income. A person who is “wealthy” is not necessarily a “worker-bee” with a W-2 income. “Wealthy” means having substantial assets. They may take a loan out just for an income tax writeoff if they don’t have enough. But their qualifications for that loan may NOT necessarily be based solely upon “income.”

Now, back to your analysis.

92122 is congested LJ Colony, no? No SFR’s except for PUD’s, little to no lot and very few families. Check recent SOLDs.

92121 good family area, yes upper MC, some large lots, decent schools. Tracts heavily remodeled on west side. This is NOT a “starter zip.” Buyers who come into here either inherit or put down 20-40%. I would venture very little PMI. Check recent SOLDs.

92126 “starter” home area, yes MC, all on tract, check recent SOLDS.

92129 “starter” and “move-up” area, yes MC, all on tract, check recent SOLDS.

91910 “starter,” “move-up” and “wealth” areas. Diverse housing stock on west side of 805, 50-85 years old. Tracts (many remodeled), customs and numerous vintage “move-ons,” many with Mills Act in place. Lots from 6000 sf to 4 acres. Majority are 7000 – 9000 SF. A $260K, 1300 sf WWII box could be 1-2 blocks from a $1.5M+ custom or vintage on 1+ AC. East side of 805 MC tracts (some with MR ending 2012) and 3 sts. custom on lg. lots and two small $1M+ tracts on large lots (16 – 42 yrs. old).

91911 “starter” and “wealth” area. Yes, AN, this is a lower MC area with views but has a large pocket of wealth (SD Country Club area). These 150 or so units are well-built customs and tracts on larger lots that do NOT turn over very much. MC pockets as well. MR east of 805 (Sunbow) terming 2021-2022. Many condo complexes.

91913 “starter” and MC area (MR on LK Cottages and Fieldstone Classics termed 2007-2008). 2 upper MC tracts (Vineyards and [Rosewinds MR termed 2007].) All tract exc. very small pocket of customs on lg. lots (wealth). Several very lg. condo projects. Almost all MR (exc. College Estates and St. Claire), to be terminated 2013 to 2021 .

91915, yes MC, almost all sold in “bubble era.” Many condo and PUD projects. All MR to terminate 2030 to 2037. The REAL value of this area is yet to be determined.

91902, yes, upper MC and wealth. Tracts and custom, many with views. Lived there 12 years and have intimate knowledge of every block. AN is skewing comps with condos. Min. SFR lot size is 1/3 AC. Yes, there are currently SFR listings under $400K but they are HEAVY FIXERS which may need foundation work, are gutted inside (or may need gutting), thus not liveable and may still be on septic. These are typically purchased as REO’s by licensed general contractors and flipped. No MR, anywhere.

North County inland has a tighter range in housing stock/prices because most of the area primarily consists of tracts which were built in the last 35 years.

AN, truly “wealthy” buyers typically gravitate towards one thing, PRIVACY. There is little privacy living on a tract w/avg. to small lots.

In South Bay, it is not uncommon for “wealthy” buyers come in from all parts of MX and purchase a property for cash. They don’t have social security numbers or FICO scores so they might not be able to qualify for a loan from a US bank. They often reside in the property 3-6 mos. per year and then have a gardener/pool svc. maintain it for the rest of the year. Some move their families or relatives into the property and remain in MX to work. I’m sure this is also the case with other parts of the county.

Household incomes in SD County:

$00 to 45K = low income
$45K to 100K = lower MC income
$100K to 200K = MC income
$200K to 350K = upper MC income
wealth = non RE and non-retirement assets of $1.5M or more

Existing MR will keep prices at bay on affected “unmatured” tracts and areas until the bonds are paid off.

The ever-present inflow of foreign cash is what drives the prices of upper MC and wealth areas in SD County, IMO.