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  • June 2, 2008 at 9:35 PM #12931
    niy38
    Participant

    I’m a first time buyer and hopefully can get some advice from guru here.

    I’ve been watching for North county housing market
    for a while, particularly Carlsbad, Southern Vista and San Marcos. Recently I think probably it’s time to buy:

    There are a lot of short sales and REO in Santa Fe
    Hills deveolpment, and after putting down 20% and excellent credit score, I can get a deal of 2100 sqt in high 300k, which I think is pretty good
    deal because my mortgage payment+ mell ros + property
    tax will be around $2500, which is just a little bit over rental+tax benefit=$2100+$300.

    My concern is since there are so many REO and short sale there, price will continue to down. but I think
    down space is probably at most 10%, otherwise
    investors will jump in. Even now I can see some houses are sold and put in the rental market immediately.

    any suggestion ?

    June 2, 2008 at 9:53 PM #215816
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    You know my stance. If you are buying because you feel it is best for your family then that is fine. If you are buying because you think that San Marcos is at or near a bottom, then I absolutely disagree. I feel that over the next 2 years San Marcos and heavily built out areas in NC may indeed follow and Eastlake path, (if you are familiar with Eastlake down in Chula Vista) then you know what I mean.

    As for trying to measure the bottom, yes you may want to do a price calculation and when you find it is much cheaper to own then to rent, indeed you will see investors jump in. Also the process for rental property purchases has feedback. If lots of investors buy rentals then the inventory of rental property grows, and rents go down due to competition… Thus the purchase prices get pushed down even more.

    I do not agree that 10% is the maximum downside risk to San Marcos.

    Again though, some people buy because of other reasons then timing the market. Just make sure that if you buy now, you are okay with further depreciation that may well (better then 50/50 chance) exceed 10% in San Marcos.

    Just my opinion.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:53 PM #215951
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    You know my stance. If you are buying because you feel it is best for your family then that is fine. If you are buying because you think that San Marcos is at or near a bottom, then I absolutely disagree. I feel that over the next 2 years San Marcos and heavily built out areas in NC may indeed follow and Eastlake path, (if you are familiar with Eastlake down in Chula Vista) then you know what I mean.

    As for trying to measure the bottom, yes you may want to do a price calculation and when you find it is much cheaper to own then to rent, indeed you will see investors jump in. Also the process for rental property purchases has feedback. If lots of investors buy rentals then the inventory of rental property grows, and rents go down due to competition… Thus the purchase prices get pushed down even more.

    I do not agree that 10% is the maximum downside risk to San Marcos.

    Again though, some people buy because of other reasons then timing the market. Just make sure that if you buy now, you are okay with further depreciation that may well (better then 50/50 chance) exceed 10% in San Marcos.

    Just my opinion.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:53 PM #215978
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    You know my stance. If you are buying because you feel it is best for your family then that is fine. If you are buying because you think that San Marcos is at or near a bottom, then I absolutely disagree. I feel that over the next 2 years San Marcos and heavily built out areas in NC may indeed follow and Eastlake path, (if you are familiar with Eastlake down in Chula Vista) then you know what I mean.

    As for trying to measure the bottom, yes you may want to do a price calculation and when you find it is much cheaper to own then to rent, indeed you will see investors jump in. Also the process for rental property purchases has feedback. If lots of investors buy rentals then the inventory of rental property grows, and rents go down due to competition… Thus the purchase prices get pushed down even more.

    I do not agree that 10% is the maximum downside risk to San Marcos.

    Again though, some people buy because of other reasons then timing the market. Just make sure that if you buy now, you are okay with further depreciation that may well (better then 50/50 chance) exceed 10% in San Marcos.

    Just my opinion.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:53 PM #215926
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    You know my stance. If you are buying because you feel it is best for your family then that is fine. If you are buying because you think that San Marcos is at or near a bottom, then I absolutely disagree. I feel that over the next 2 years San Marcos and heavily built out areas in NC may indeed follow and Eastlake path, (if you are familiar with Eastlake down in Chula Vista) then you know what I mean.

    As for trying to measure the bottom, yes you may want to do a price calculation and when you find it is much cheaper to own then to rent, indeed you will see investors jump in. Also the process for rental property purchases has feedback. If lots of investors buy rentals then the inventory of rental property grows, and rents go down due to competition… Thus the purchase prices get pushed down even more.

    I do not agree that 10% is the maximum downside risk to San Marcos.

    Again though, some people buy because of other reasons then timing the market. Just make sure that if you buy now, you are okay with further depreciation that may well (better then 50/50 chance) exceed 10% in San Marcos.

    Just my opinion.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:53 PM #215899
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    You know my stance. If you are buying because you feel it is best for your family then that is fine. If you are buying because you think that San Marcos is at or near a bottom, then I absolutely disagree. I feel that over the next 2 years San Marcos and heavily built out areas in NC may indeed follow and Eastlake path, (if you are familiar with Eastlake down in Chula Vista) then you know what I mean.

    As for trying to measure the bottom, yes you may want to do a price calculation and when you find it is much cheaper to own then to rent, indeed you will see investors jump in. Also the process for rental property purchases has feedback. If lots of investors buy rentals then the inventory of rental property grows, and rents go down due to competition… Thus the purchase prices get pushed down even more.

    I do not agree that 10% is the maximum downside risk to San Marcos.

    Again though, some people buy because of other reasons then timing the market. Just make sure that if you buy now, you are okay with further depreciation that may well (better then 50/50 chance) exceed 10% in San Marcos.

    Just my opinion.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215904
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215931
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215984
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215821
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215956
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215989
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215909
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215826
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

    June 2, 2008 at 9:54 PM #215936
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    If you decide to pull the trigger, find one you love. The lower prices get the harder it will be to find one you love that doesnt have a few others clamouring for it. If you buy one and prices keep falling, at least you will be living in a home you love.

    The decision to buy or not is yours alone.

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