OT: Is Apple's heyday over?

Submitted by flu on November 1, 2012 - 7:28am
Yes: short the stock
22% (7 votes)
No: you haven't seen nothing yet.
25% (8 votes)
Yes: but markets are irrationale, so you're asking for it if you short.
53% (17 votes)
Total votes: 32
Submitted by flu on November 1, 2012 - 7:30am.

I'm too chicken for this in real life but I voted for yes, short the stock...

The thing that made me decide was the recent exec being fired kinda divulged there's something internal going on in terms of direction...That's not a good sign....

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 1, 2012 - 7:51am.

I saw an article where some company (not available in the U.S. yet) is selling a ipad type device running on linux OS or android OS (forgot which), selling it for $40 dollars (yes that’s right I did not leave a zero off), currently they have to connect it to cell phone, but they have one for $100 that uses wi-fi.
Google coming out with I think 200 dollar Lap-Top running Chrome type OS, this type of thing will only become cheaper.

The I-Clones are coming the I-Clones are coming,

Submitted by SK in CV on November 1, 2012 - 8:29am.

Amazon is selling at 300 times earnings.
Facebook is selling at almost 200 times earnings.
Google is selling at almost 21 times earnings.
Microsoft is selling at almost 16 times earning.
Apple is selling at under 14 times earnings.

and just for fun:
Catapillar is selling at 9 times earnings.
Ford is selling at 2.5 times earnings.

Which one is under-priced?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 1, 2012 - 8:48am.

The Problem with Tech (and working in Tech),
Is you can become so yesterday so quickly.

Apple is not IBM where they have huge service revenue

Submitted by enron_by_the_sea on November 1, 2012 - 10:25am.

I think Apple's long march to dominance has finally been halted so Apple stock will probably not double from here. In order for Apple to double from here they need to invent another new category of product. They could do it but what are the chances? Or another 1999-style stock bubble can double Apple but what are the chances of that?

However that does not mean that it is a short at present levels either. Low PE, cash on hand, dividends and still-decent revenue growth rate will put a floor under its stock price ...

Submitted by no_such_reality on November 1, 2012 - 10:29am.

Tech isn't about tech. It's about marketing and fashion. It's about stroking egos.

IMHO, Apple has found just the right level of dumbed-down. Their users feel like they're tech-savvy movers and shakers, while the underlying tech prevents them from doing anything that takes them off the carefully maintained corporate revenue path.

Most people can't root their phones and don't want to.

Submitted by blahblahblah on November 1, 2012 - 7:11pm.

Apple is BMW/Mercedes.

Everything else is Ford/Chevy/Dodge.

The difference is quality is very dramatic, at every level. That said, there is plenty of market for both BMW/Mercedes and Ford/Chevy/Dodge.

Apple has a couple of areas they could enter that would really change everything and could make them grow to unimaginable proportions if they succeeded.

1) Corporate IT world
2) Television

The likelihood of these are low and I think the gov would bring antitrust lawsuits if they were making too many inroads there.

But if they're looking for growth there is huge potential in those. Very stale old markets, nothing new happening in ages, ripe for a revolution.

Submitted by spdrun on November 1, 2012 - 7:17pm.

Actually, Apple's desktop OS's are hugely flexible and relatively hacker-friendly. It's just iOS that's deliberately crippled, due to the legacy of a senile, ill old man that should have resigned a year earlier.

The sad thing is that a system can be BOTH user-friendly AND open, and Apple doesn't seem to acknowledge that with iOS.

Submitted by SK in CV on November 1, 2012 - 10:10pm.

CONCHO wrote:
Apple is BMW/Mercedes.

Everything else is Ford/Chevy/Dodge.

The difference is quality is very dramatic, at every level. That said, there is plenty of market for both BMW/Mercedes and Ford/Chevy/Dodge.

Apple has a couple of areas they could enter that would really change everything and could make them grow to unimaginable proportions if they succeeded.

1) Corporate IT world
2) Television

The likelihood of these are low and I think the gov would bring antitrust lawsuits if they were making too many inroads there.

But if they're looking for growth there is huge potential in those. Very stale old markets, nothing new happening in ages, ripe for a revolution.

The likelihood of Apple's entrance into the corporate IT world is pretty strong. It's one of the issues addressed during their earnings phone call last week that didn't get much press, but investors loved it for about 45 seconds. The pentagon just ended their exclusive with RIM. My only hesitancy to call Apple's entry into the enterprise market as having a huge potential is that RIM, which had that market locked up for so long, didn't generate numbers big enough to move the needle much for Apple. But it could be significant, at least sufficient to add to growth for another couple years.

Submitted by spdrun on November 1, 2012 - 10:15pm.

Phones? Tablets? What about selling the corporate desktop as well?

I was always surprised that US government organizations had such a strong connection to RIM. After all, all 'berry traffic is passed through servers controlled by a foreign company.

Submitted by zk on November 1, 2012 - 11:44pm.

"Yes: but markets are irrationale, so you're asking for it if you short."

I vote for this one.

And I think we've got something with that new word you used.

Rationale: a reasoned exposition, esp one defining the fundamental reasons for a course of action, belief, etc (dictionary.com)

Irrationale: What a woman uses instead of a reasoned exposition. (zk)

I kid because I love.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 2, 2012 - 7:24am.

well, im not even qualified to vote, but im gonna go buy a new ipad today, if bestbuy has one. I have a few hundred dollars in bestbuy credits from a dispute and I want to spend them before the company goes bankrupt, voids the credits or, most likely, I misplace them. take this info into account before shorting the stock.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 2, 2012 - 7:51am.

I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,

"Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables."

Submitted by blahblahblah on November 2, 2012 - 10:38am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,

"Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables."

This won't phase Apple for a moment. They will simply give it a new cool Mexican name and people will still flock to stores to buy them in droves. They don't like it because of its name, they like it because all the coolest people they see on TV, in magazines, in movies, etc... use them.

Every TV show that is cool, all over the world, shows the coolest people using Apple products. Apple is a premium brand like BMW/Mercedes which appeals to the coveted "aspirational" consumer tranche. PC/Samsung/Microsoft/Dell are all viewed as 2nd rate and worse, products for dorks who like tinkering or people who are thrifty. Not cool.

I'm not saying this is an accurate perception, it's just the way people think at the moment. It could change at any time.

Submitted by Tickles on November 2, 2012 - 11:28am.

I trade aapl options. Stock is undervalued now and going through a correction before a massive rally.

This correction by the way is smaller (% wise) than the one that occurred in the middle of the year. Market makers are squeezing every last drop out off options (with Jan expiry) and stock holders.

$650 in 3-4 weeks, around $700 around Jan. $1000 by 2014.
Due your own diligence before buying.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 2, 2012 - 11:42am.

That's my problem I guess,

I’m just not cool enough !!

Submitted by outtamojo on November 2, 2012 - 12:03pm.

CONCHO wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,

"Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables."

This won't phase Apple for a moment. They will simply give it a new cool Mexican name and people will still flock to stores to buy them in droves. They don't like it because of its name, they like it because all the coolest people they see on TV, in magazines, in movies, etc... use them.

Every TV show that is cool, all over the world, shows the coolest people using Apple products. Apple is a premium brand like BMW/Mercedes which appeals to the coveted "aspirational" consumer tranche. PC/Samsung/Microsoft/Dell are all viewed as 2nd rate and worse, products for dorks who like tinkering or people who are thrifty. Not cool.

I'm not saying this is an accurate perception, it's just the way people think at the moment. It could change at any time.

These folks just epitomize cool...

Riots With iPads: When SF Won The World Series
http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/29/riots-w...

Submitted by poorgradstudent on November 2, 2012 - 12:36pm.

Is Apples heyday over? Yes.
Will the stock decline appreciably in the next year? I doubt it.
AAPL is up something like 7000% in the past 10 years. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they will not go up another 70-fold in the next 10 years. Crazy, I know! But could AAPL become another KO? Not exactly an innovator, but keeps putting out decent products that people keep buying? Keeps making money, although possibly not at the clip it is today? Totally possible.

Submitted by flu on November 2, 2012 - 1:00pm.

Well, it's below 200 day moving average after I posted. Darn...

Submitted by Tickles on November 2, 2012 - 1:11pm.

Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.

They have just completely revamped their product line - phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.

They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.

In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.

Submitted by Tickles on November 2, 2012 - 1:16pm.

deleted

Submitted by spdrun on November 2, 2012 - 1:18pm.

Except that they sell crippleware in the form of iOS. Google chooses to cripple their OS much less. Sooner than later, people are getting wise to that fact, plus you can't argue with the fact that Android devices offer much more bang for a buck.

It's a shame that they didn't become less anally controlling after Jobsie left the building.

Submitted by Tickles on November 2, 2012 - 1:17pm.

flu wrote:
Well, it's below 200 day moving average after I posted. Darn...

Best thing that could have happened. AAPL has reached capitulation on technical and valuation fronts.

Submitted by Tickles on November 2, 2012 - 1:17pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
Is Apples heyday over? Yes.
Will the stock decline appreciably in the next year? I doubt it.
AAPL is up something like 7000% in the past 10 years. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they will not go up another 70-fold in the next 10 years. Crazy, I know! But could AAPL become another KO? Not exactly an innovator, but keeps putting out decent products that people keep buying? Keeps making money, although possibly not at the clip it is today? Totally possible.

Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.

They have just completely revamped their product line - phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.

They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.

In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.

Submitted by doofrat on November 2, 2012 - 1:20pm.

I think aapl's valuation is largely based on the innovations of a single person who is not with the company anymore. Look at what happened to Apple the first time Jobs left.

According to Trefis http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=AAPL.tr... (don't know how accurate that is though) a full 70% of Apple's valuation comes from products developed in the last 5 years. Products developed before that time account for 12% of valuation. Lesson: unless Apple keeps producing new groundbreaking products, its valuation isn't headed in a good direction.

My prediction:
I think they will keep churning out iPads, iPhones, iPods, sales on iTunes, and high margin boutique laptops and computers for several years at least as competitors catch up. My guess is that they will eventually have to release their full computer OS tablet to stay competitive when/if somebody else's becomes viable, but that will be their last big innovation and even this will likely eat into their highly profitable laptop and desktop market.

I hope I'm wrong.

Submitted by blahblahblah on November 2, 2012 - 2:11pm.

iOS is only crippled for techno-nerds who want to play with different browsers or try compiling their OS and watching it crash to show their friends how smart and tech-savvy they are. People like this make up about %0.0000001 of the market, although the tech press will have you believe otherwise because they depend on ad revenue from Apple's competitors to stay alive.

Apple tightly controls the software on their devices because software quality is a huge part of overall product quality and consumer perception. Microsoft was viewed as having poor quality for many years because they didn't control a lot of the device driver software that PCs used. This wasn't Microsoft's fault and was no reflection on their quality, which has always been very high. But facts like that don't matter in the marketplace. Customers saw PCs crash (almost always due to non-MS device driver bugs), saw the MS Windows label, and made the mental association that "MS=bugs". The fact that it's incorrect doesn't matter, the damage is done and will take years to undo.

Apple "cripples" their products primarily to prevent them from crashing and to control the user experience. This prevents Apple from being associated with poor product quality. High quality is the ONLY thing that will keep them alive, since their prices are high relative to the competition. No one would buy a Mercedes if they didn't have good quality. Does Mercedes cripple their cars because they don't make it easy to swap transmissions?

Submitted by flu on November 7, 2012 - 10:15am.
Submitted by livinincali on November 7, 2012 - 11:04am.

It's relatively obvious that AAPL growth days are numbered. If you just assume that maybe 2 billion people in the whole world could even afford a smart phone and assume that 60% of them already have one it's hard to see where the growth is going to come from. Replacements don't equal growth that just helps maintain the numbers you current have. Let's take the best case scenario AAPL maintains 35-40% of the smart phone market and the total smart phone market approaches my 2 billion number. That gives AAPL 800 million total phones. Then lets assume AAPL is super innovative and 80% of those 800 million users upgrade every 2 years. So you now have 640 million phones every 2 years or 320 million per year. AAPL has been selling 150-200 million iPhone for the last couple of years, so your looking at a maximum of 50-70% growth from current levels in the extreme optimistic scenario. Most likely it will be something less.

My guess is that AAPL will have it's all time record quarter in Q4 this year if it didn't already in Q4 2011. It will go down hill from there unless they come up with a product that those 2 billion people don't have and want. Right now I haven't seen it and I don't expect to. Major technology revolutions such as the internet or mobile only happen about once every 10-15 years and we just had one. Mid 2020 will come up with something must have, but that won't get AAPL to the first 1 trillion dollar company.

Submitted by SK in CV on November 7, 2012 - 11:20am.

livinincali wrote:
It's relatively obvious that AAPL growth days are numbered. If you just assume that maybe 2 billion people in the whole world could even afford a smart phone and assume that 60% of them already have one it's hard to see where the growth is going to come from. Replacements don't equal growth that just helps maintain the numbers you current have. Let's take the best case scenario AAPL maintains 35-40% of the smart phone market and the total smart phone market approaches my 2 billion number. That gives AAPL 800 million total phones. Then lets assume AAPL is super innovative and 80% of those 800 million users upgrade every 2 years. So you now have 640 million phones every 2 years or 320 million per year. AAPL has been selling 150-200 million iPhone for the last couple of years, so your looking at a maximum of 50-70% growth from current levels in the extreme optimistic scenario. Most likely it will be something less.

My guess is that AAPL will have it's all time record quarter in Q4 this year if it didn't already in Q4 2011. It will go down hill from there unless they come up with a product that those 2 billion people don't have and want. Right now I haven't seen it and I don't expect to. Major technology revolutions such as the internet or mobile only happen about once every 10-15 years and we just had one. Mid 2020 will come up with something must have, but that won't get AAPL to the first 1 trillion dollar company.

iphones make up less than 50% of Apple's revenues. Next comes ipads, followed by both desktop and laptop computers. The biggest reason that they've been able to sustain their growth is because they've come out with new products. Can they do it forever? It would seem unlikely, and it's pretty likely that they have hit a place where continued growth in their existing product lines is pretty limited.

But none of that makes them a bad future play. They've proved in the past that they can be innovative and create new product lines where there is no competition. Worst possible scenario over the next few years is that they become microsoft, where good money goes to sleep. The difference between them and Microsoft when Microsoft revenue growth stopped is that the stock is currently priced as if it won't grow. And they can afford to pay a shit load of dividends to keep the stock price up.

Submitted by flu on November 8, 2012 - 8:06am.

delete.

Submitted by livinincali on November 8, 2012 - 9:06am.

SK in CV wrote:

But none of that makes them a bad future play. They've proved in the past that they can be innovative and create new product lines where there is no competition. Worst possible scenario over the next few years is that they become microsoft, where good money goes to sleep. The difference between them and Microsoft when Microsoft revenue growth stopped is that the stock is currently priced as if it won't grow. And they can afford to pay a shit load of dividends to keep the stock price up.

It depends on what you're looking for. In general when a mega brand ends it's growth phase it tends to have it's stock price chopped in half from the peak and it usually takes a few years for the value investors to replace the growth investors. Look at KO or MSFT. They'll be a right place to buy AAPL for value investing. Probably around $400/sh but they may not get that low for awhile because there's still a lot of hope in the company.

Submitted by flu on December 5, 2012 - 3:21pm.
Submitted by afx114 on December 5, 2012 - 6:27pm.

Still up nearly 40% for the year. Not bad for a company whose heyday is over.

Submitted by flu on December 7, 2012 - 12:07pm.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl&ql=1

Submitted by flu on December 14, 2012 - 8:21am.
Submitted by SK in CV on December 14, 2012 - 8:45am.

Now selling cheaper than msft. Maybe a lot of eoy selling? I thought it was cheap a few days ago. Cheaper now. Selling a weekly put spread if it ever fills, betting it will bounce back at least $10 by a week from now.

Submitted by flu on December 14, 2012 - 10:25am.

I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point....
*edit*...

I bought in this morning at 59.70

Submitted by AN on December 14, 2012 - 11:14am.

flu wrote:
I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point....
*edit*...

I bought in this morning at 59.70


Wow, good job. It's now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.

Submitted by flu on December 14, 2012 - 11:35am.

AN wrote:
flu wrote:
I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point....
*edit*...

I bought in this morning at 59.70


Wow, good job. It's now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.

I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don't think what most retail "investors" realize is qc isn't just dependent on apple. They're pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc.....

So we'll see.

Submitted by desmond on December 14, 2012 - 11:39am.

I'd rather hear from Tickles..........

Submitted by flu on December 14, 2012 - 11:48am.

I know a few people that bought into apple's hype at around $700/share just a few months ago, after listening to "analysts" saying it was going to $1000/share...

Ouch.

I'm wondering what's really gonna happen if we have a broader market correction....Seems like even when the broader market is holding ok these days, appl can't.

Lol...

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-575587...

Submitted by patb on December 14, 2012 - 6:46pm.

too many hedge funds holding AAPL if they can't meet their 2% annual fee, they will get a lot of redemptions

Submitted by patb on December 15, 2012 - 11:19pm.

Tickles wrote:
Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.

They have just completely revamped their product line - phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.

They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.

In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.

iPhone/iPad/IOS is now 6 years old.

Macbook/iMac/MacPro are mature products.

iTunes now has competitors with Amazon/Google...

Apple needs something new and amazing.

Look we have an iPad 1, but, we didn't rush out to buy an iPad 2,3 or mini.
Heck even if they make the improvements we want (8x11) format, thinner, longer battery life.

There is no reason to replace the iPad we have.

great company great products, but i have an Android phone, why do i want the iPhone?

Submitted by flu on December 17, 2012 - 7:58am.

flu wrote:
AN wrote:
flu wrote:
I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point....
*edit*...

I bought in this morning at 59.70


Wow, good job. It's now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.

I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don't think what most retail "investors" realize is qc isn't just dependent on apple. They're pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc.....

So we'll see.

Cha ching

Submitted by flu on December 18, 2012 - 10:17am.

flu wrote:
flu wrote:
AN wrote:
flu wrote:
I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point....
*edit*...

I bought in this morning at 59.70


Wow, good job. It's now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.

I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don't think what most retail "investors" realize is qc isn't just dependent on apple. They're pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc.....

So we'll see.

Cha ching

I'm out @$63.11....

Enough to pay for the miata + parts + part of the supercharger... Not bad for 2 day's of clicking....

Submitted by AN on December 18, 2012 - 10:29am.

flu wrote:
I'm out @$63.11....

Enough to pay for the miata + parts + part of the supercharger... Not bad for 2 day's of clicking....


Not bad, but it's now at $63.30. That would have been enough for a new set of tires and a track day paid admission :-D.

Submitted by SK in CV on December 18, 2012 - 11:15am.

SK in CV wrote:
Now selling cheaper than msft. Maybe a lot of eoy selling? I thought it was cheap a few days ago. Cheaper now. Selling a weekly put spread if it ever fills, betting it will bounce back at least $10 by a week from now.

Cha ching here too. Bot back the put for a nickel. +$3,400. 4 days. I think 5 clicks.

Submitted by flu on January 23, 2013 - 2:44pm.

Apple misses....
I think their golden days are over.

Submitted by no_such_reality on January 23, 2013 - 2:49pm.

delete.

Submitted by flu on January 23, 2013 - 3:30pm.

Apple down over 9% now AH....

I think the egosystem around it's going down also. Qualcomm AH is down also...