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9 Comments

  1. spdrun
    November 19, 2012 @ 8:53 PM

    Good.
    Good.

  2. moneymaker
    November 28, 2012 @ 4:11 AM

    It would be interesting to
    It would be interesting to see the San Diego months of resale inventory going all the way back to 2000. Wonder if this was what really caused the peak/frenzy leading up to the peak in 2005/2006.

    • Rich Toscano
      November 28, 2012 @ 7:00 AM

      moneymaker wrote:It would be
      [quote=moneymaker]It would be interesting to see the San Diego months of resale inventory going all the way back to 2000. Wonder if this was what really caused the peak/frenzy leading up to the peak in 2005/2006.[/quote]

      Unfortunately that’s as far back as I have it. But, months of inventory was super-low during the hottest times, getting to its lowest iirc in spring 2004. I wouldn’t say it was the cause of the price rise, though… it was the effect of the insatiable demand driven by the bubble mentality and super-easy financing.

      • moneymaker
        November 30, 2012 @ 8:53 AM

        I would say that now is
        I would say that now is similar to pre boom times. Although money is not “loose” it is certainly cheap to those with access to it. So with low interest rates, so much money sitting in cash, and low inventory, I think it’s triple witching time for the “rich” to start a real estate bubble of their own. I predict in the next 2 years a small bubble that will run real estate up 50%.

      • carlsbadworker
        December 2, 2012 @ 8:22 PM

        2 years is a bold prediction,
        2 years is a bold prediction, but 50% is not. We can get 50% by 7% a year for 6 years. As flu said in other thread, we got 12% this year. So at this rate, we just need 3-4 years for 50%.

      • livinincali
        December 5, 2012 @ 10:02 AM

        carlsbadworker wrote:2 years
        [quote=carlsbadworker]2 years is a bold prediction, but 50% is not. We can get 50% by 7% a year for 6 years. As flu said in other thread, we got 12% this year. So at this rate, we just need 3-4 years for 50%.[/quote]

        What evidence over the long term is there for 7% appreciation in home values. The 10+% per year during the bubble was an extreme outlier, traditionally you might get 2-3% at best over 10 year time frames. This past year just happened to produce a situation where December 2011 marked a low point so things are up, but look at the past 2 years, 3 years, or 4 years, and the return are low single digits even after the 12% gain.

      • carlsbadworker
        December 5, 2012 @ 10:22 AM

        livinincali wrote:
        What

        [quote=livinincali]
        What evidence over the long term is there for 7% appreciation in home values. The 10+% per year during the bubble was an extreme outlier, traditionally you might get 2-3% at best over 10 year time frames. This past year just happened to produce a situation where December 2011 marked a low point so things are up, but look at the past 2 years, 3 years, or 4 years, and the return are low single digits even after the 12% gain.[/quote]

        You are right. It is probably nonsense. I wrote that reply after reading this:

        http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-15-best-housing-markets-for-the-next-five-years-200056059.html?page=all

        But I think traditionally, it should track inflation which is not going to be up that much in the next few years.

      • moneymaker
        July 30, 2013 @ 7:26 PM

        Could I have been right? Stay
        Could I have been right? Stay tuned.

  3. carlsbadworker
    November 29, 2012 @ 4:04 PM

    With inventory shrinking and
    With inventory shrinking and price rising, I wonder if people have wrongly accused the “government manipulation” on this board. After all, the US housing market has a good crash and it now seems to be a short one as well.
    It might be shorter if we remove all the “government manipulation” starting from middle of 2008, but three years at the bottom is not that bad, comparing to other countries. Unless, people think we haven’t seen the end of it yet. But almost every indicator right now is saying that the worst is behind us:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/trulia/2012/11/28/housing-market-recovery-accelerating-now-47-back-to-normal/

    Comment?

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