Not too much change last month. This continues to be an interesting story of very low demand (not far off the lows of the GFC)…
Set against fairly low supply (nothing at all like the supply glut we saw post-GFC… and while inventory may seem high compared to the last couple years, it’s still quite low compared to the post-GFC/pre-Covid years).
Putting it together, we have kind of a normal-ish months of inventory level that’s actually conducive to pretty stable prices.
So, I think inventory will be the thing to watch here. I discussed this in last month’s update, suggesting that an increase in inventory resulting from economic weakness was a real risk. That’s speculation about the future, though; as of now inventory is still low and the standoff continues.
More graphs below…
December 9, 2022 @ 8:44 AM
I am now tracking RSD,
I am now tracking RSD, eastern El Cajon and eastern La Mesa as well as OB.
Despite that diversity, the markets all seem pretty quiet but strong. No more dramatic price cuts and inventory lower than normal, though obviously above the crazy 0.3 month levels from 2021-early 2022.
The main difference is that rather than dramatic price cuts from overpriced listings, the listings start reasonable and then sell without cuts.
December 27, 2022 @ 1:05 PM
So we are getting closer to
So we are getting closer to the data actually showing whats happening. CS for OCT just came out and its 391. Its a 3 month moving average so it is based upon Aug/Sep/Oct closings. The December CS will be out in 2 months and wont have those Aug or early Sept closings in it. It should be in the 370-380 range. At that point it will be compared with the March and April figures of 416 to 430 of a year earlier.
That will be early Spring peak selling season and the data will be showing a decline well over 10% in less than a year. Thats where we start to find out how buyers and sellers respond going forward.
December 28, 2022 @ 4:49 PM
Just too few new homes in San
Just too few new homes in San Diego to be greatly impacted by this oncoming glut of new housing completions in 2023.