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17 years ago

Fine analysis, Rich. Given
Fine analysis, Rich. Given the consistent move northward in median price since fall ’06, I think I’ll consider buying, now (not!).

Nah, the fun has just begun.

17 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I am not surprised by a
I am not surprised by a small increase in prices in the short term. I think it is to be expected that there are a certain number of people that have been chasing the market for a while and they feel that they finally gained enough ground to get in. I also think that some activity is going to be driven by people who are selling large, expensive houses and buying more affordable ones. I think that they are fairly strong buyers as they have most likely been patient or they would already be in, or they have made a good profit on thier large house and are wise enough to see that now is the time to get off the gravy train and get into a reasonably priced house at a fixed rate. Their numbers are very limited. Once they are absorbed then I think the tank is dry. This is, of course, pure conjecture. But I am interested to know if anyone else has had the same thoughts.

17 years ago
Reply to  JJsqueeze

The rise has a simple
The rise has a simple explanation, the mix of homes is moving to the upside while price for each of the homes is declining. For example, look at Orange County’s February Numbers:

All resale houses $670,000 -3.6% 1,567 -12.6%
All condominiums $458,000 -1.5% 714 -20.1%
All new homes $626,500 -3.1% 337 -37.2%
All homes $620,000 -0.8% 2,618 -18.8%

Notes the smallest decline in price was condos at -1.5%, yet the overall all homes price only declined -0.8%. Also note that overall, over half of the units sold where resale SFRs.

San Diego’s are similar although not as apparent.