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  1. Anonymous
    April 10, 2007 @ 12:41 PM

    Fine analysis, Rich. Given
    Fine analysis, Rich. Given the consistent move northward in median price since fall ’06, I think I’ll consider buying, now (not!).

    Nah, the fun has just begun.

    • JJsqueeze
      April 10, 2007 @ 3:00 PM

      I am not surprised by a
      I am not surprised by a small increase in prices in the short term. I think it is to be expected that there are a certain number of people that have been chasing the market for a while and they feel that they finally gained enough ground to get in. I also think that some activity is going to be driven by people who are selling large, expensive houses and buying more affordable ones. I think that they are fairly strong buyers as they have most likely been patient or they would already be in, or they have made a good profit on thier large house and are wise enough to see that now is the time to get off the gravy train and get into a reasonably priced house at a fixed rate. Their numbers are very limited. Once they are absorbed then I think the tank is dry. This is, of course, pure conjecture. But I am interested to know if anyone else has had the same thoughts.

      • no_such_reality
        April 10, 2007 @ 3:15 PM

        The rise has a simple
        The rise has a simple explanation, the mix of homes is moving to the upside while price for each of the homes is declining. For example, look at Orange County’s February Numbers:

        All resale houses $670,000 -3.6% 1,567 -12.6%
        All condominiums $458,000 -1.5% 714 -20.1%
        All new homes $626,500 -3.1% 337 -37.2%
        All homes $620,000 -0.8% 2,618 -18.8%

        Notes the smallest decline in price was condos at -1.5%, yet the overall all homes price only declined -0.8%. Also note that overall, over half of the units sold where resale SFRs.

        San Diego’s are similar although not as apparent.

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