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spdrun
9 years ago

Any chance of a breakdown of
Any chance of a breakdown of the data by price tiers?
Why the drop in PPSF from March to April?

joec
9 years ago
Reply to  spdrun

I think for folks who bought
I think for folks who bought when rates were very low…with low interest rates now to redeploy money, with the increase in prices, a lot of homes are probably just being rented now making inventory so low. 1.5 months is much less than the normal norm of 6 months.

Until this changes or rents drop in price, I don’t see this working out for people hoping to buy anytime soon.

I’m sure for a lot of folks here that bought in the past ~5 years of so (and there were a lot of us), everyone is sitting pretty happy since near most places have gone up and I’m guessing a lot of people are paying less than the price to rent now.

For a primary to live in, it’s such a load off your mind to not have to worry about this, really.

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago
Reply to  joec

I’ve been thinking roughly
I’ve been thinking roughly the same thing lately. Indeed, it does feel very comfortable.

On the other hand, anyone dependent on their equity should sell now. This bubble is piggybacking on the stimulus thrown after the last bubble. Smart piggs will tread cautiously, imho.

bewildering
9 years ago
Reply to  joec

http://files.zillowstatic.com
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/rental/ZRI.San%20Diego.395056.pdf

This is the rental information for San Diego from Zillow. The rent price data (I pasted link below) passes the sniff test, at least for the neighborhoods I know.

From the rent data it takes about 2 years to break even to buy a house in San Diego.

With low inventory, and a break even point of 2 years I see house prices rising.

I have no idea about affordability based on salary.

http://www.zillow.com/research/data/

spdrun
9 years ago
Reply to  bewildering

The breakeven horizon is very
The breakeven horizon is very artificial, because it takes home price appreciation into account. i.e., it’s low in San Diego BECAUSE home prices were rising quickly, thus making it advantageous to buy.

bewildering
9 years ago
Reply to  spdrun

Rent rises are more important
Rent rises are more important than house price rises. The reason is that mortgage payments stay constant over time, whereas rent changes. the breakeven in san diego is low in san diego because landlords are responding to demand. I’m glad i am no longer competing with other renters.

spdrun
9 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Why the drop in contingents
Why the drop in contingents vs actives the last few years? Do contingents include pendings — i.e. are sales more likely to go pending directly?

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

Thanks for the update Rich.
Thanks for the update Rich.

gzz
gzz
9 years ago

Thanks Rich. I look forward
Thanks Rich. I look forward to new long term graphs. I especially like the rent to mortgage payment ratio one.

I think starting this summer we will see a 12 month increase in prices of 7 to 10%. Rents are rising, job growth is strong, and unemployment in SD is now 4.7%. All those newly employed people will either pressure purchase prices or rents up since new construction is minimal and offset by foreign buyers.

spdrun
9 years ago
Reply to  gzz


poorgradstudent
9 years ago
Reply to  spdrun

Thanks, Rich!
It’s

Thanks, Rich!

It’s interesting that although months of inventory is low, the total inventory isn’t especially low. So it’s largely being driven by sales.

Thinking longer term, rates are still low but rising, which may be pushing a few fence-sitters off that fence. Employment is also quite strong. SD unemployment is (supposedly) 5.3%, which puts it down at pre bubble levels. Rents are also quite high, which tends to support that side of the Rent vs. Buy equation.

At some point prices will rise to the point they will discouage demand and encourage more potential sellers. I still disagree with anyone calling this a “bubble”, but it’s probably a mediocre to poor time to buy and a pretty good time to sell. Potential buyers may want to wait until the fall when inventory tends to seasonally catch up a bit.

svelte
9 years ago
Reply to  gzz

gzz wrote:
I think starting

[quote=gzz]
I think starting this summer we will see a 12 month increase in prices of 7 to 10%. Rents are rising, job growth is strong, and unemployment in SD is now 4.7%. All those newly employed people will either pressure purchase prices or rents up since new construction is minimal and offset by foreign buyers.[/quote]

Certainly possible…

svelte
9 years ago

Thanks Rich!
Thanks Rich!

fun4vnay2
9 years ago

It’d be interesting to see
It’d be interesting to see how does the housing market do in the next few years
With affordability in SD at 28% with median price/income and jobs being created are mainly low paying jobs, it’s gonna be a tough ride.

joec
9 years ago
Reply to  fun4vnay2

rockingtime wrote:It’d be
[quote=rockingtime]It’d be interesting to see how does the housing market do in the next few years
With affordability in SD at 28% with median price/income and jobs being created are mainly low paying jobs, it’s gonna be a tough ride.[/quote]

I really think people need to realize that in some cities (like Bay Area, LA, even SD), the median person is NOT supposed to be able to buy a home here. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking of people who are looking for a collapse or want to take advantage if that ever were to happen again, but it’s all just wishful musing.

Lower income people should really just move to lower housing places where you can buy a nice house in a decent school area for 100k…In CA, that place is not here so just leave and not contribute putting 50% of your income in rent/housing.

fun4vnay2
9 years ago

CA real estate has always
CA real estate has always been cyclical. More so now as real estate in CA has become like stock with lot of investors in the last few years
Someone saying it is not or it won’t happen is a wishful musing for sure.

It is amusing to see how easily people forget the recent past. At the same time, past is not guarantee for future. Only time would tell

an
an
9 years ago
Reply to  fun4vnay2

rockingtime wrote:CA real
[quote=rockingtime]CA real estate has always been cyclical. More so now as real estate in CA has become like stock with lot of investors in the last few years
Someone saying it is not or it won’t happen is a wishful musing for sure.

It is amusing to see how easily people forget the recent past. At the same time, past is not guarantee for future. Only time would tell[/quote]I don’t see anyone on this forum saying CA RE is not cyclical and won’t be cyclical.

It’s also wishful thinking to expect a repeat of this last crash with the same magnitude. You obviously don’t believe it yourself either, that’s why you’re not selling your primary house and rent. If you believe we’ll see a repeat of 2005 again, then it’s a no brainer to sell everything including your primary and rent.

BTW, I find it amusing that you brought up the recent past, yet you seem to forget the actual data of the recent past. Here’s some data from Rich for you:
http://piggington.com/shambling_towards_affordability_housing_valuations_surpass

fun4vnay2
9 years ago
Reply to  an

I am selling my rentals and
I am selling my rentals and keeping my primary as I need a place to live.

an
an
9 years ago
Reply to  fun4vnay2

rockingtime wrote:I am
[quote=rockingtime]I am selling my rentals and keeping my primary as I need a place to live.[/quote]Rent and buy back in 2-3 years several hundred grand cheaper. That’s what happened the last time.

fun4vnay2
9 years ago
Reply to  an

Yeah, I did that last time
Yeah, I did that last time and made $$
This time my kids r bit grown up and am getting resistance about moving to a different place..

Trying to see if I can find some rental in my own neighborhood.

OTH: I feel this price rising has some leg to go but one can never buy at bottom n sell at peak