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  1. spdrun
    February 18, 2013 @ 9:42 PM

    Good to see PPSF easing up a
    Good to see PPSF easing up a bit, but the volatility in the condo price is unreal.

    • Rich Toscano
      February 20, 2013 @ 8:44 AM

      I think the condo volatility
      I think the condo volatility is largely an artifact, which is why I don’t pay too much attention to that series.

      There is a much smaller sample size for condos (597 sales last month vs. 1854 for detached), and also a bit more variance in prices (first standard deviation is 64% of the median price, vs. 57% for detached).

      So it’s mostly noise I think…

      • EJ
        February 21, 2013 @ 11:05 AM

        I think the volatility is
        I think the volatility is also a symptom of the low inventory. There are less data points used find the median and thus greater error in the results.

  2. Ed
    February 21, 2013 @ 4:11 PM

    What do you think might be
    What do you think might be causing the low inventory? It doesn’t look like sales volume is too far off from prior years. Maybe a drop in new construction? Are people just not interested in selling their homes for some reason?

    This is big contrast from a couple years ago when “shadow inventory” and the effects of builders overbuilding during the bubble were thought thought to be a drag on home prices for years to come.

    • spdrun
      February 21, 2013 @ 5:05 PM

      Why sell if they can sit in
      Why sell if they can sit in them without making payments and wait for (maybe) prices to go up enough for them to get above water? New laws have made it very hard to foreclose in CA, so there’s less incentive to sell short.

    • FormerSanDiegan
      February 22, 2013 @ 8:44 AM

      Ed wrote:What do you think
      [quote=Ed]What do you think might be causing the low inventory? It doesn’t look like sales volume is too far off from prior years. [/quote]

      I think you are on to something here for the most part, but have to disagree regarding sales volume. Sales volume was up significantly in 2012.

      EVERY SINGLE MONTH in 2012 had higher sales than the same month for the preceding two years. Sales look to have been about 10-15% higher, each and every month from July – December.

      But, I think you are correct in alluding to other factors. Certainly the minimal significant new construction over a 5-year period plays a role. As does the employment and interest rate situation.

      Salt in some marginally above water or below water owners (resistant to putting on the market) and you have a recipe for scarce inventory and price increases.

      • Ed
        February 22, 2013 @ 1:43 PM

        That’s a good point about the
        That’s a good point about the sales volume being up for the 2nd half of 2012, this shouldn’t be overlooked, but it seems disproportionate to the huge drop in inventory.

        That’s an interesting point about marginally above water or below water owners. Along a similar line, perhaps some of the government programs are contributing.

        Since inventory looks to be driving the increase in home prices, it might be helpful to have insight on what is driving the inventory besides the recent uptick in sales volume (and related factors such as interest rates).

      • moneymaker
        February 23, 2013 @ 8:01 AM

        I suppose this should put to
        I suppose this should put to rest any thoughts of shadow inventory,assuming prices resume their upward tick this spring.

      • spdrun
        February 23, 2013 @ 8:54 AM

        Shadow inventory is
        Shadow inventory is unreleased, not released. (Not that there ever was a huge amount in SD/SDCo compared to other places.)

  3. sdduuuude
    February 26, 2013 @ 2:10 PM

    One thing to note – it’s
    One thing to note – it’s going to get difficult to keep the year-over-year growth pattern. This month, last year, marks the bottom.

  4. poorgradstudent
    February 26, 2013 @ 2:26 PM

    There definitely is a serious
    There definitely is a serious lack of inventory out there right now. Bidding wars for mediocre homes, houses listed on Tuesday with several offers on Wednesday… I’m starting to think we’re in a mini-bubble. Of course, until inventory catches up, it’s probably going to continue this way.

    It’s funny, because our realtor who had all the time in the world for us a year and a half ago when we were looking has pawned our friends we referred to her onto her assistant. Said friends are actually going to ditch said realtor for that exact reason. It’s a crazy market!

    • Jazzman
      March 7, 2013 @ 11:49 AM

      I’ve read that inventory
      I’ve read that inventory always shrinks at the bottom of a cycle, as sellers anticipate a turnaround. However, I don’t think this explains the sudden and large inventory drop earlier last year. Foreclosures have been a dominant force in sales, as has investor activity. Firstly, inventory has been low since the bubble burst, but mainly there’s been so many problems with getting foreclosed properties onto the market, from judicial procedures to moratoria, the robo-signing scandal, and anecdotal evidence of properties deliberately being held off the market, with higher end homes receiving preferential treatment. We know that preventing home prices from falling has been a stated aim of this administration. Add in record low interest rates, and you have a contrived recovery. Now if you want to buy under those conditions, that is your right, but just remember it’s my tax dollars making that possible so I want a room in your house for one weeks vacation please.

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