So let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that San Diego is going to experience a housing downturn.
If you don’t want to grant that assumption right off the bat, you could read part one and part two of the series dedicated entirely to the idea that a soft landing is unlikely. Another alternative would be to skip all that reading and start crafting a vitriolic letter to the editor right now.
Either way, in order to get on with this article, we need to allow the assumption that there will be a housing bust. Because our task today is to try to figure out what past housing downturns say about how our hypothetical bust might play out.
read more at voiceofsandiego.org
June 8, 2006 @ 12:32 PM
Rich: You were suprisingly
Rich:
You were suprisingly generous with those assumptions.
The one that I wish you would have put into the article is that markets over-react.
We had irrational exuberance and we will have irrational despondency. Those emotions cause prices to overshoot equilbrium points.
Hence there is conservative evidence for a slightly larger downside forecast than what you published due to over-reaction.
June 8, 2006 @ 1:27 PM
I know I wasn’t faulting you
I know I wasn't faulting you and I would make the same choices in your shoes.
I think that it improves the bear case to give every benefit of the doubt to the bulls and still paint a bearish picture. Good work, I will post it over at Lansner's blog.
Has the vitriol increased? Or is it mostly anons on the internet that prefer ad homimen attacks?
On another topic Jon Lansner at OCR is matching your articles. Here is his on house price forecast for 2006.
http://tinyurl.com/s4sw2
June 8, 2006 @ 4:08 PM
That is interesting. I will
That is interesting. I will post at Voice of San Diego.
This is snipped from John T. Reed's site.
Here is a pertinent statement that Adlai Stevenson once said in a speech: “You will find that the truth is often unpopular and the contest between agreeable fancy and disagreeable fact is unequal. For, in the vernacular, we Americans are suckers for good news.”
In his book The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America, historian Daniel J. Boorstin said, “[P.T.] Barnum’s great discovery was not how easy it is to deceive the public, but rather how much the public enjoyed being deceived.” Media consultant Ellen Hume says, “The problem is you get to the point where people prefer to believe the myth.”
P.S. How do you get to post with hard returns preserved?
June 9, 2006 @ 5:33 AM
I left a comment yesterday,
I left a comment yesterday, but I see 0 comments.
They’re having some problems with their website. Today’s Will Carless story missed the graph he referred in his article.
June 9, 2006 @ 6:35 PM
You’re welcome. I notified
You’re welcome. I notified the Editor at the Voice of missing charts in articles and comments, and they are aware and fixing it.
June 10, 2006 @ 9:21 AM
I can’t see any comments on
I can't see any comments on the Voice of San Diego page?
Do they filter out IP's that don't correspond to SD.
I am in OC.
June 10, 2006 @ 11:48 PM
Did you read the comments
Did you read the comments above yours? That answers your question.
July 18, 2006 @ 6:25 PM
I read in a recent forbes
I read in a recent forbes issue that housing needs to come down by apprx 1/3 to be in line with inflation. If this happens the economy is bound to suffer.