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Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

Rich: You were suprisingly

Rich:

 You were suprisingly generous with those assumptions.

 The one that I wish you would have put into the article is that markets over-react.

 We had irrational exuberance and we will have irrational despondency.  Those emotions cause prices to overshoot equilbrium points.

Hence there is conservative evidence for a slightly larger downside forecast than what you published due to over-reaction.

Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

I know I wasn’t faulting you

I know I wasn't faulting you and I would make the same choices in your shoes. 

 I think that it improves the bear case to give every benefit of the doubt to the bulls and still paint a bearish picture.  Good work, I will post it over at Lansner's blog. 

Has the vitriol increased?  Or is it mostly anons on the internet that prefer ad homimen attacks? 

 On another topic Jon Lansner at OCR is matching your articles.  Here is his on house price forecast for 2006. 

 http://tinyurl.com/s4sw2

 

Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

That is interesting. I will

That is interesting. I will post at Voice of San Diego.

This is snipped from John T. Reed's site.

Here is a pertinent statement that Adlai Stevenson once said in a speech: “You will find that the truth is often unpopular and the contest between agreeable fancy and disagreeable fact is unequal. For, in the vernacular, we Americans are suckers for good news.”

In his book The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America, historian Daniel J. Boorstin said, “[P.T.] Barnum’s great discovery was not how easy it is to deceive the public, but rather how much the public enjoyed being deceived.” Media consultant Ellen Hume says, “The problem is you get to the point where people prefer to believe the myth.”

P.S. How do you get to post with hard returns preserved?

powayseller
18 years ago

I left a comment yesterday,
I left a comment yesterday, but I see 0 comments.

They’re having some problems with their website. Today’s Will Carless story missed the graph he referred in his article.

powayseller
18 years ago

You’re welcome. I notified
You’re welcome. I notified the Editor at the Voice of missing charts in articles and comments, and they are aware and fixing it.

Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

I can’t see any comments on

I can't see any comments on the Voice of San Diego page?

 

Do they filter out IP's that don't correspond to SD.

 

I am in OC.

powayseller
18 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Did you read the comments
Did you read the comments above yours? That answers your question.

Anonymous
Anonymous
17 years ago

I read in a recent forbes
I read in a recent forbes issue that housing needs to come down by apprx 1/3 to be in line with inflation. If this happens the economy is bound to suffer.