[yoyoyah1]

This is a simplification of the Greek problem.

They are spending at a rate faster than the tax revenue. Also, % of population working for the government is quite high.

This is not a rich vs poor problem.. its structurally unsound economy over reliant on government jobs.

[yoyoyah1]

My “hypothesis” is that we are at a turning point..

Banks and other financial institutions supply are slowing down.

Demand will pick up with unemployment improvement this year (see initial jobless claims trend..)

Interest rates are very low and will remain low until mid 2013 at the earliest.

I know these thoughts are heresy on this site, and can ‘t be proven today… so go easy..

[yoyoyah1]

I didn’t say it wasn’t being manipulated.. I said that manipulation by itself can’t explain what’s different over the last 6 months…

If we set a lower high in inventory during the spring/summer.. then prices have to increase to create more supply..

[yoyoyah1]

I am not so sure that it will grow and match the level’s we have seen the last two years.. even with demand bought forward in 2010. Lower low’s and a lower highs says that sellers are exhausting at current price levels..

In the last two years.. rolling 3 month demand hasn’t even been close to supply levels.. but looks like its touching now..

if supply was being manipulated.. i don’t think they would wait far below the two year minimum..

[yoyoyah1]

Agree with the seasonality.. but to be 31% below the two year low seems odd..

Since sales are not driving down inventory its a supply side problem..

[Author]

Posts