[XBoxBoy]

Haven’t bothered to add many of the recent sales lately, but I thought this one really deserves to be mentioned. Just in case anyone thought that La Jolla was not going to fall as far as other areas, here’s a Seahaus condo that lost 29% or $469,900 since it was bought in late 05.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-3A8602EE-5480_La_Jolla_Blvd_J203_La_Jolla_CA_92037

This has got to be a major blow to all the other Seahaus owners who are thinking their property is immune.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Haven’t bothered to add many of the recent sales lately, but I thought this one really deserves to be mentioned. Just in case anyone thought that La Jolla was not going to fall as far as other areas, here’s a Seahaus condo that lost 29% or $469,900 since it was bought in late 05.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-3A8602EE-5480_La_Jolla_Blvd_J203_La_Jolla_CA_92037

This has got to be a major blow to all the other Seahaus owners who are thinking their property is immune.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Haven’t bothered to add many of the recent sales lately, but I thought this one really deserves to be mentioned. Just in case anyone thought that La Jolla was not going to fall as far as other areas, here’s a Seahaus condo that lost 29% or $469,900 since it was bought in late 05.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-3A8602EE-5480_La_Jolla_Blvd_J203_La_Jolla_CA_92037

This has got to be a major blow to all the other Seahaus owners who are thinking their property is immune.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Be sure to see the thread “Treasuries, another bubble?”

http://piggington.com/treasuries_another_bubble

Two questions I have about the last weeks treasury action. 1) Will this continue, or is this just people liquidating treasuries for temporary reasons? 2) Just how high will the yield on 10yrs go, and what will be the impact on housing?

I think it remains to be seen if treasury yields will continue to rise. They’ve given reason to believe they were going to rise several times in recent years, but always came back down before getting very far out of hand.

Given the unattractiveness of mortgages to most investors now (the US Govt. not included) what would happen to mortgage rates if 10yrs went to 5%, what about 10yrs at 6% or even more? Is it safe to assume that mortgages (30yr fixed) will stay at rates at least a couple percent above 10years? How will we have a housing recover if mortgage rates go up?

If rates do go up, will the government still be able to pursue all these bailouts? Could the fed start buying 10yrs to drive down long term rates? If so, wouldn’t they have to print money to do that, causing more problems?

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Be sure to see the thread “Treasuries, another bubble?”

http://piggington.com/treasuries_another_bubble

Two questions I have about the last weeks treasury action. 1) Will this continue, or is this just people liquidating treasuries for temporary reasons? 2) Just how high will the yield on 10yrs go, and what will be the impact on housing?

I think it remains to be seen if treasury yields will continue to rise. They’ve given reason to believe they were going to rise several times in recent years, but always came back down before getting very far out of hand.

Given the unattractiveness of mortgages to most investors now (the US Govt. not included) what would happen to mortgage rates if 10yrs went to 5%, what about 10yrs at 6% or even more? Is it safe to assume that mortgages (30yr fixed) will stay at rates at least a couple percent above 10years? How will we have a housing recover if mortgage rates go up?

If rates do go up, will the government still be able to pursue all these bailouts? Could the fed start buying 10yrs to drive down long term rates? If so, wouldn’t they have to print money to do that, causing more problems?

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Be sure to see the thread “Treasuries, another bubble?”

http://piggington.com/treasuries_another_bubble

Two questions I have about the last weeks treasury action. 1) Will this continue, or is this just people liquidating treasuries for temporary reasons? 2) Just how high will the yield on 10yrs go, and what will be the impact on housing?

I think it remains to be seen if treasury yields will continue to rise. They’ve given reason to believe they were going to rise several times in recent years, but always came back down before getting very far out of hand.

Given the unattractiveness of mortgages to most investors now (the US Govt. not included) what would happen to mortgage rates if 10yrs went to 5%, what about 10yrs at 6% or even more? Is it safe to assume that mortgages (30yr fixed) will stay at rates at least a couple percent above 10years? How will we have a housing recover if mortgage rates go up?

If rates do go up, will the government still be able to pursue all these bailouts? Could the fed start buying 10yrs to drive down long term rates? If so, wouldn’t they have to print money to do that, causing more problems?

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Be sure to see the thread “Treasuries, another bubble?”

http://piggington.com/treasuries_another_bubble

Two questions I have about the last weeks treasury action. 1) Will this continue, or is this just people liquidating treasuries for temporary reasons? 2) Just how high will the yield on 10yrs go, and what will be the impact on housing?

I think it remains to be seen if treasury yields will continue to rise. They’ve given reason to believe they were going to rise several times in recent years, but always came back down before getting very far out of hand.

Given the unattractiveness of mortgages to most investors now (the US Govt. not included) what would happen to mortgage rates if 10yrs went to 5%, what about 10yrs at 6% or even more? Is it safe to assume that mortgages (30yr fixed) will stay at rates at least a couple percent above 10years? How will we have a housing recover if mortgage rates go up?

If rates do go up, will the government still be able to pursue all these bailouts? Could the fed start buying 10yrs to drive down long term rates? If so, wouldn’t they have to print money to do that, causing more problems?

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Be sure to see the thread “Treasuries, another bubble?”

http://piggington.com/treasuries_another_bubble

Two questions I have about the last weeks treasury action. 1) Will this continue, or is this just people liquidating treasuries for temporary reasons? 2) Just how high will the yield on 10yrs go, and what will be the impact on housing?

I think it remains to be seen if treasury yields will continue to rise. They’ve given reason to believe they were going to rise several times in recent years, but always came back down before getting very far out of hand.

Given the unattractiveness of mortgages to most investors now (the US Govt. not included) what would happen to mortgage rates if 10yrs went to 5%, what about 10yrs at 6% or even more? Is it safe to assume that mortgages (30yr fixed) will stay at rates at least a couple percent above 10years? How will we have a housing recover if mortgage rates go up?

If rates do go up, will the government still be able to pursue all these bailouts? Could the fed start buying 10yrs to drive down long term rates? If so, wouldn’t they have to print money to do that, causing more problems?

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=stockstradr]Now, help me out. Best way to take advantage of this reversal? I think we need to find a good short-term treasury fund to short.
[/quote]

Wouldn’t it be better to short a long term treasury fund? Long term bonds are the ones that are going to suffer the most if the bubble bursts I would think.

[quote=stockstradr]Don’t forget to consider that really smart economists with good track records of predicting this overall financial mess (Roubini..etc) see this recession pulling CPI down to ZERO or even a couple percent BELOW zero, during the most intense quarters of deflation.[/quote]

Yeah, but don’t forget to consider that the CPI is massaged by the government to produce the results they want, and is a fairly worthless statistic.

If this stock market rally continues for a couple of days, and main stream media continues to sound the all clear, I suspect we will find out whether or not treasuries are a bubble very quickly here.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=stockstradr]Now, help me out. Best way to take advantage of this reversal? I think we need to find a good short-term treasury fund to short.
[/quote]

Wouldn’t it be better to short a long term treasury fund? Long term bonds are the ones that are going to suffer the most if the bubble bursts I would think.

[quote=stockstradr]Don’t forget to consider that really smart economists with good track records of predicting this overall financial mess (Roubini..etc) see this recession pulling CPI down to ZERO or even a couple percent BELOW zero, during the most intense quarters of deflation.[/quote]

Yeah, but don’t forget to consider that the CPI is massaged by the government to produce the results they want, and is a fairly worthless statistic.

If this stock market rally continues for a couple of days, and main stream media continues to sound the all clear, I suspect we will find out whether or not treasuries are a bubble very quickly here.

XBoxBoy

[Author]

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