[Wiley]

I am constantly talking about this issue. Believe me it is the same in OC and LA. I travel a lot and also notice that people are much more cold in So Cal. My theory (based on nothing) is people are much more stressed about their life here. May have to do with cost of living, etc.

Many studies of the great depression showed people were actually relieved the depression came because the values reverted back to people helping each other. Many people were living beyond their means in the 20’s and values were all about money. Seems prescient to me.

[Wiley]

JG,
I stand corrected on Hitler. I should have said he came to power in a democratic government.

On your other statement that democracy is a proven method for ensuring freedom I’d disagree. Do you think we are more free then say someone living under a monarchy?

Even the thought that a democracy is sustainable is highly dubious. A professor from Scottland once said during the formation of our government that democracies can only last approximately 200 years because as the people realize they can vote themselves more and more from the public treasury they slowly vote themselves into a tyranny. (or something close to that). I’d say he was pretty astute.

I don’t know if democracy would be better for them or not. I do know this. If a people wants a new form of government then it is their responsibility to make it happen. You cannot liberate a country. Only they can.

I think it very naive to think our government cares about the plight of the Iraqi’s (or our moral obligation). This is about money and power. If it were otherwise we’d send our army to Sudan.

[Wiley]

Oh and for Wiley, history has shown in general that democratic nations tend not to attack one another. If you bust up the center of the Arab world with a democratic nation, you could potentially have a more far reaching peace. This is why I believed in the effort. As it stands there is only one democracy in the Middle East.

I'm glad you put the disclaimer "in general". Off the top of my head we've interfered with Democratically elected governments in Chile and Nicaragua. If we're so peaceful why are we constantly waging war? Why do we spend more than all other countries in the world combined on our military? 

Wasn't Hitler democratically elected?  

The fact is we are an empire and act like all other empires before us. Waging war around the world in an attempt to show others how much better our way of life would be. The only big difference is other empires collect tributes from their newly conquered lands. We don't. But our will end as all others. Debasing our currency in an attempt to pay for all the folly, leading to ruin. All else is noise (imho).

 Bagdad has been invaded so many times by people who had the answers its incredible. Each one grew tired of the expense and eventually left. We will too. 

 

 

 

[Wiley]

Questions JES,

How is spreading Democracy a noble cause? Where is the proof Democracy is a superior form of government?

Obviously you supported the invasion and thought the outcome would be much differnent. Why do you think you now have the answers?

You can’t “bring” people anything. People must liberate themselves. Check history.

Would it be Noble for communists to come here with war because they truly felt their form of government was a better way for us to live?

This area has already been divided many times by the west. Why would more division solve the problem?

I’m not saying I have the answers. It just always bugs me that everyone (including people who can’t even manage their own personal affairs) believe they have the solutions for a people and country they know little about.

[Wiley]

If there is so much excess liquidity (which I totally agree) then you’ve got inflation. Me thinks it will show up in cost of goods thereby affecting earnings negatively.

[Wiley]

Hey PS,

Did you put on you wamu short? Good day to be short. Looks like those loans are catching up to them.

[Wiley]

Like it or not gold is money. Current monetary policy supports much higher gold price. If and when you see a radical change in monetary policy its probably time to exit. I doubt we’ll see that anytime soon. Probably see gold re-enter the the monetary policy in some form when it gets out of hand.

Not to hijack the thread but I’m curious if everyone is inclined to believe we are in an inflationary times why so much focus on equities and not commodities (in general no just pm’s)?

[Wiley]

The German market also went up during the Weimer Republic (but you still got creamed).

So in the last six years gold has doubled while the Dow clawed its way back to even. And only one Dow stock actually made a new high.

Anyone can usually bias their arguement based on which time reference you want to use and look good.

Fundamentals support precious metals, not equities. Fundamentals always win in the end. Just my take.

[Wiley]

Gold is all in the dollar.They are completely inverse eachother with the short term exceptions of the hedge/momentum players pushing too far either way.

Inflation=increase money supply. I think there is little doubt we’ve had plenty of that. I believe we’ll have even more when the foreigners stop buying our debt and the fed starts monetizing it. If they haven’t already.

If you cut out all the noise and look at every instance in history that a country (well empire) debased it’s currency as we are then you have to be gold bullish.

Chris, I like technical analysis also but I truly believe without a fundamental view it won’t work.

[Wiley]

http://www.sunamericafunds.com/sun.nsf/indyk?OpenForm

[Wiley]

http://www.sunamericafunds.com/sun.nsf/indyk?OpenForm

[Wiley]

I sometimes wonder if there is a concerted effort to keep the general public confused and uneducated. Actually I’m sure there is. Of course loose monetary policy drove housing prices and the fraud that enabled it. Money always goes looking for yield.

I am curious that there is almost no discussion about the carry trade between the billions borrowed from Japan at 0% and lent here. A liquidity drop of historic porportions as I understand it. (also why must I always end my sentences in a preposition?)

[Wiley]

I think the real point is the buyers/holders of the mbs would care. If not then why would you even ask about the debtors debt/income ratio in the first place. True there isn’t anything they can do about it but the information may change how they view the overall markets fundamentals and further purchases going forward.

[Wiley]

I take back what I said earlier. I would use this guy if was to use a broker. I think more of a money manager then broker. He occaisionally posts to this site (which is excelllent also by the way).

http://www.jsmineset.com  (post by Monty Guild)

[Wiley]

Couple thoughts,

A. I have yet to meet a broker that wasn’t just a salesperson disguised as a market seer. I’m sure they are out there but if they are that smart they are probably managing a fund (ok a bear fund).

B. I really hate this perpetual hype that shorting is so dangerous because stocks can go to infinity. If you get caught the wrong way you just cover and get out.

C. Nothing ever goes straight one way or the other and the decline in housing stocks does seem to be getting long in the tooth. Ultimately I agree they are going down more.

[Author]

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