[wallers]

Good one from the WA Post. Arms are back. But they are different this time so it’s all good.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2015/04/17/wary-homeowners-offered-new-ways-to-finance-their-next-move/

[wallers]

Just fyi today from my realtor. I should buy!

I just wanted to update you on the Felton Home.
Seller received 5 offers and will be in escrow this week.

Agent didn’t disclose if they are over the list price yet but I assume they have gotten at least $515K offers.

I know that you are a bit discourage about the market in the metro area but more and more people want to live here and they are driving up the prices.

Best Wishes,

[wallers]

[quote=rockingtime]Cash in chase investment account and their conservative model pay almost 4-5%/year, their moderate model pays almost 7%/year.
The money is liquid.
One can always argue there are better options but I am not aware of any. I chose chase as I bank with them primarily.[/quote]

Yes would like more info on that as well if possible.

[wallers]

yep that’s the other issue. I know nothing about getting 4-5% and my money is just sitting at .08 money market right now. i guess that’s a whole other thread.
probably look into that here in the next several weeks because just doing nothing will hurt in the end.

[wallers]

But that train might be circling back to the station or at least part way. One never knows. Anyways, I agree also with the comments about over thinking things because it would just be a lot of frustration. Now that I have made the decision I basically am going to put this to rest and move on with rest of my life. If I start seeing some headlines about the housing market moving the other way cause the fed has to pay the piper then I will perk back up. But for now I am going to live and let live. And yes, single with no kids and lots of savings. thanks for the therapy. I will post a follow up in a year/two/three/four or more… who knows!

[wallers]

yep. I’m out. 3127 McKinley just listed. check the history. in my opinion wow.

[wallers]

ok thanks everyone! great info. I think I am going to rent and see how this all plays out.

From all the info here and everywhere generally speaking it seems prices will either remain somewhat the same/maybe a bit up for sometime and things will trudge along or go down. So financially it might be prudent to wait and see with minimal risk of a continued large price increase (buy now or be priced out forever!). Plus there is the possibility of staying calm and being rewarded for waiting for lower prices.

On the personal side I like being a homeowner. But if I can’t get what I want perhaps than maybe it’s not a great idea to buy anyways.

[wallers]

Yes, I have heard all the same arguments about why SD will be stable from realtors.
But one thing that boggles me a bit is that if that were the case then the 1920’s house that took 90 years or so to get to 400k. In 4 years it hit 600k (minimal to no improvements also all loose estimates)but point is 200k in 4 years and 400k over 90 years. Well… that seems off. Maybe not. But from what I understand (and again don’t know) household income has not had even close to that sort of growth. If everyone was moving here and buying up the place and that is why it is what it is I feel there would be a different historical trend. Not everyone decided to move here in the last 4 years. But again maybe I just see what I want to see.
On the investor fleeing comment from what I see they are still in the game. At least where I am looking. I asked my realtor about a fixer house that just went on. Sold all cash in a few days. Think there is a dumpster outside now waiting for the demo to begin. And this house wasn’t a steal of a deal either. For an investor to make money at the price point they paid they are going to have to ask a sizable price even in this market.

[wallers]

Yes you are correct about that as well. If I buy now can’t buy later. Have to stick with I bought long term.

[wallers]

Thanks everyone. Yes, all of what posted makes sense.
I can google housing crash and lots of articles about the doom and why. Some well written from respected people. Same for house prices remaining flat. Same for house prices moving up. You can find anything you want depending on what you want to find.

Last time around I didn’t even think about bad loans etc. SO with this latest craze I guess I am looking to dig deeper to see what is really going on and if we are on solid ground with the economy/investors since that seems to be the driver? And then all the info about the fed pumping money in.

The thing I am wary about (but again don’t know) is that if house prices were so investor driven what happens when investors start dumping and leave. Will they dump. Will they hold. Who owns what. Is the market really investor driven? It seems to me the housing market now is treated more like the stock market instead of people just buying homes. So are homes just like the stock market? Big ups and downs. Speculative driven. Then the Fed pushed all cheap money in. That is said to be unprecedented. What is that going to mean?

In the end just as people have said I guess we don’t now till something happens or it doesn’t. Some bullish, some bearish, some in between. But was curious about the “indicators” of what potentially could happen. You know where you just say to yourself how did I not see that coming.

And yes I just moved here. Want to buy a house. I won’t lose money because I will have a long hold. The homes I want are 20% more than I can afford (well revise that to I could get it but I would be uncomfortable if I had any job issues) But could be somewhat happy with buying something 20% less and it would be less than rent. But then what if I wait two years and buy that house for 20% less and get what I want. But then what if I live in a rental and pay more than owning and things just plug along and am not happy renting. Or what if things keep going up (the herd mentality that is also scary buy now but it gets to me like everyone)

Ah the questions. I wish I had a crystal ball.

[wallers]

Yes you are correct. Sorry did not give all the info. I would be putting 50% down which makes it cheaper for me to own than rent. But yes, with lower down payments it is cheaper to rent than buy from what I see where I am looking in San Diego.

[wallers]

I think one of the potential pitfalls is that a 450k house 3 years ago is now 650k. So for the 700k and under market there eventually/if not already although it still seems to keep going up will be an affordability issue based on incomes.

Investors drove this up. Followed by Jim and Jane in a panic that they will be priced out forever if they don’t pay these prices. Most investors buy low. Jim and Jane buy high. At a certain point investors don’t invest because Jim and Jane can’t afford to buy even in their panic mode. Investors leave. Jim and Jane who stretched to buy are now underwater. Media interviews with Jim and Jane about the poor state of the housing market and screaming headlines about things going bad and what are they to do now. And it’s time once again for investors to come back and buy Jim and Jane’s house for a fraction of what they bought it for.

Alot of people don’t peel the onion. They take prices for face value. And doubt things will ever change. Good for some. Bad for alot.

[wallers]

I am wondering who the buyers are as well. If someone here makes an above average living (for here) but still has to stretch to afford an average or less than average small home (with the last few years increase) it makes me wonder what is going on and if a price correction will be coming. Looking at incomes and housing prices it does not pencil out unless it’s all driven by outside investors. Who will come and go but when they go prices go down. From what I see it is cheaper to rent than buy now (much cheaper) so that seems off as well.

[wallers]

thanks

even though the rules are more relaxed it sounds like parking is still an issue with the street wall and construction can add up especially with the plumbing.

thanks again

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