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ucodegen
ParticipantAbout the only guy I respect now on the semi big stage is Doug Kass who out predicted them all and I’ve never heard him mentioned here.
I was looking at some of his predictions done in Dec 2009.. kind of interesting. Many which did come true.
http://wallstreetpit.com/13213-doug-kass-predictions-for-2010
1. Corporate profits soar 100% in the first quarter of 2010 from a year ago, while GDP jumps 4.5%. closer to to half right. GDP increase so far 2.7 2010Q1, 5.44 2009Q4 %
2. Housing and jobs fail to revive.
3. The U.S. dollar explodes higher. Did with respect to EU/Pound Sterling
7. Stocks drop by 10% in the first half of next year. – maybe off by a bit.. since it happened towards the end of the first half
7. Kass predicts that Goldman Sachs (GS) goes private. wouldn’t be surprised if this does occur, considering ‘financial reform’ bill will limit the hedging that GS can do. Most banks currently do less than the limit.. except GSSo far didn’t happen:
4. The price of gold topples. He said it was going to break down from $900.. it went up.. now around $1250
5. Central banks tighten earlier than expected. – TBD
6. A Middle East peace is upended due to an attack by Israel on Iran. TBD
9. Second-half 2010 GDP growth turns flat. TBD
10. Rate-sensitive stocks outperform; metals underperform…. TBD – Traditionally, rate sensitive stocks tend to be dividend stocks – because investors look primarily at return rates. The correlation is usually negative – so I do have a slight problem with this prediction.ParticipantAbout the only guy I respect now on the semi big stage is Doug Kass who out predicted them all and I’ve never heard him mentioned here.
I was looking at some of his predictions done in Dec 2009.. kind of interesting. Many which did come true.
http://wallstreetpit.com/13213-doug-kass-predictions-for-2010
1. Corporate profits soar 100% in the first quarter of 2010 from a year ago, while GDP jumps 4.5%. closer to to half right. GDP increase so far 2.7 2010Q1, 5.44 2009Q4 %
2. Housing and jobs fail to revive.
3. The U.S. dollar explodes higher. Did with respect to EU/Pound Sterling
7. Stocks drop by 10% in the first half of next year. – maybe off by a bit.. since it happened towards the end of the first half
7. Kass predicts that Goldman Sachs (GS) goes private. wouldn’t be surprised if this does occur, considering ‘financial reform’ bill will limit the hedging that GS can do. Most banks currently do less than the limit.. except GSSo far didn’t happen:
4. The price of gold topples. He said it was going to break down from $900.. it went up.. now around $1250
5. Central banks tighten earlier than expected. – TBD
6. A Middle East peace is upended due to an attack by Israel on Iran. TBD
9. Second-half 2010 GDP growth turns flat. TBD
10. Rate-sensitive stocks outperform; metals underperform…. TBD – Traditionally, rate sensitive stocks tend to be dividend stocks – because investors look primarily at return rates. The correlation is usually negative – so I do have a slight problem with this prediction.Participant[quote Arraya]
Back to our original assertion regarding low building being bullish for future RE prices. I stand by my assertion that you are basing your wishful thinking on historical growth patterns, and nothing else, that have extremely low to practically zero probability in manifesting.
[/quote]
There are two ways to increase the price of a good, in this case housing.
1) Increase demand – often through prices or some pseudo price change like gov stimulus.
2) Constrain supply – like building fewer houses. I think this is the one that you are missing.If there is no growth in supply, while demand grows albeit very slowly(population growth), prices will climb. Right now there is a surplus. In a condition of no new construction, prices will slowly go up as the ‘best’ properties get picked up and people over-bid on the remaining – trying to avoid being locked out. The increase in property prices will be very slow until most of the supply has been consumed.
Situations that can affect the price/demand interrelation:
1) Continued low employment, causing people to ‘go-off-the-grid’ so to say, or to double up(grown children moving back in with parents) which will reduce the demand for housing, and thereby the prices
2) Inflation will actually cause house prices to rise. In an inflation scenario, tangible goods.. ie food, housing, gold.. etc will rise in relation to the dollar. Right now we are seeing deflation still – part because of drop in true money supply (it also included all leverage-able tangible goods – largest of which are houses). The ‘printing’ of money is trying to offset this, but watch out for the ‘recoil’ when this type of slack is taken up.The large home builders, ie KB, have effectively locked out the small contractors who would build houses .. through relations with cities & counties as well as locking up the land through land purchase options. The housing market is not a true ‘free market’ anymore.
Participant[quote Arraya]
Back to our original assertion regarding low building being bullish for future RE prices. I stand by my assertion that you are basing your wishful thinking on historical growth patterns, and nothing else, that have extremely low to practically zero probability in manifesting.
[/quote]
There are two ways to increase the price of a good, in this case housing.
1) Increase demand – often through prices or some pseudo price change like gov stimulus.
2) Constrain supply – like building fewer houses. I think this is the one that you are missing.If there is no growth in supply, while demand grows albeit very slowly(population growth), prices will climb. Right now there is a surplus. In a condition of no new construction, prices will slowly go up as the ‘best’ properties get picked up and people over-bid on the remaining – trying to avoid being locked out. The increase in property prices will be very slow until most of the supply has been consumed.
Situations that can affect the price/demand interrelation:
1) Continued low employment, causing people to ‘go-off-the-grid’ so to say, or to double up(grown children moving back in with parents) which will reduce the demand for housing, and thereby the prices
2) Inflation will actually cause house prices to rise. In an inflation scenario, tangible goods.. ie food, housing, gold.. etc will rise in relation to the dollar. Right now we are seeing deflation still – part because of drop in true money supply (it also included all leverage-able tangible goods – largest of which are houses). The ‘printing’ of money is trying to offset this, but watch out for the ‘recoil’ when this type of slack is taken up.The large home builders, ie KB, have effectively locked out the small contractors who would build houses .. through relations with cities & counties as well as locking up the land through land purchase options. The housing market is not a true ‘free market’ anymore.
Participant[quote Arraya]
Back to our original assertion regarding low building being bullish for future RE prices. I stand by my assertion that you are basing your wishful thinking on historical growth patterns, and nothing else, that have extremely low to practically zero probability in manifesting.
[/quote]
There are two ways to increase the price of a good, in this case housing.
1) Increase demand – often through prices or some pseudo price change like gov stimulus.
2) Constrain supply – like building fewer houses. I think this is the one that you are missing.If there is no growth in supply, while demand grows albeit very slowly(population growth), prices will climb. Right now there is a surplus. In a condition of no new construction, prices will slowly go up as the ‘best’ properties get picked up and people over-bid on the remaining – trying to avoid being locked out. The increase in property prices will be very slow until most of the supply has been consumed.
Situations that can affect the price/demand interrelation:
1) Continued low employment, causing people to ‘go-off-the-grid’ so to say, or to double up(grown children moving back in with parents) which will reduce the demand for housing, and thereby the prices
2) Inflation will actually cause house prices to rise. In an inflation scenario, tangible goods.. ie food, housing, gold.. etc will rise in relation to the dollar. Right now we are seeing deflation still – part because of drop in true money supply (it also included all leverage-able tangible goods – largest of which are houses). The ‘printing’ of money is trying to offset this, but watch out for the ‘recoil’ when this type of slack is taken up.The large home builders, ie KB, have effectively locked out the small contractors who would build houses .. through relations with cities & counties as well as locking up the land through land purchase options. The housing market is not a true ‘free market’ anymore.
Participant[quote Arraya]
Back to our original assertion regarding low building being bullish for future RE prices. I stand by my assertion that you are basing your wishful thinking on historical growth patterns, and nothing else, that have extremely low to practically zero probability in manifesting.
[/quote]
There are two ways to increase the price of a good, in this case housing.
1) Increase demand – often through prices or some pseudo price change like gov stimulus.
2) Constrain supply – like building fewer houses. I think this is the one that you are missing.If there is no growth in supply, while demand grows albeit very slowly(population growth), prices will climb. Right now there is a surplus. In a condition of no new construction, prices will slowly go up as the ‘best’ properties get picked up and people over-bid on the remaining – trying to avoid being locked out. The increase in property prices will be very slow until most of the supply has been consumed.
Situations that can affect the price/demand interrelation:
1) Continued low employment, causing people to ‘go-off-the-grid’ so to say, or to double up(grown children moving back in with parents) which will reduce the demand for housing, and thereby the prices
2) Inflation will actually cause house prices to rise. In an inflation scenario, tangible goods.. ie food, housing, gold.. etc will rise in relation to the dollar. Right now we are seeing deflation still – part because of drop in true money supply (it also included all leverage-able tangible goods – largest of which are houses). The ‘printing’ of money is trying to offset this, but watch out for the ‘recoil’ when this type of slack is taken up.The large home builders, ie KB, have effectively locked out the small contractors who would build houses .. through relations with cities & counties as well as locking up the land through land purchase options. The housing market is not a true ‘free market’ anymore.
Participant[quote Arraya]
Back to our original assertion regarding low building being bullish for future RE prices. I stand by my assertion that you are basing your wishful thinking on historical growth patterns, and nothing else, that have extremely low to practically zero probability in manifesting.
[/quote]
There are two ways to increase the price of a good, in this case housing.
1) Increase demand – often through prices or some pseudo price change like gov stimulus.
2) Constrain supply – like building fewer houses. I think this is the one that you are missing.If there is no growth in supply, while demand grows albeit very slowly(population growth), prices will climb. Right now there is a surplus. In a condition of no new construction, prices will slowly go up as the ‘best’ properties get picked up and people over-bid on the remaining – trying to avoid being locked out. The increase in property prices will be very slow until most of the supply has been consumed.
Situations that can affect the price/demand interrelation:
1) Continued low employment, causing people to ‘go-off-the-grid’ so to say, or to double up(grown children moving back in with parents) which will reduce the demand for housing, and thereby the prices
2) Inflation will actually cause house prices to rise. In an inflation scenario, tangible goods.. ie food, housing, gold.. etc will rise in relation to the dollar. Right now we are seeing deflation still – part because of drop in true money supply (it also included all leverage-able tangible goods – largest of which are houses). The ‘printing’ of money is trying to offset this, but watch out for the ‘recoil’ when this type of slack is taken up.The large home builders, ie KB, have effectively locked out the small contractors who would build houses .. through relations with cities & counties as well as locking up the land through land purchase options. The housing market is not a true ‘free market’ anymore.
ParticipantCostco quality stinks imho…For me, it’s fine for stuff I don’t care about like holiday cards, or for pictures I give away…But for slightly more important stuff, it’s hard to get consistency at Costco, mostly probably because they don’t keep those machines well calibrated all the time.
I have had good luck with the Target near Balboa & Genesse. I am not certain of the Target in Mira Mesa. The Target near Balboa & Genesse has new machines, so they still work correctly. Their printing is oriented towards digital. I don’t know if they can even do film. The 8×10 is on to paper, the smaller sizes are thermal dye transfer. Another place for large prints would be Calumet in North County. One part that worries me about places like ‘Nelson’s is their ‘retouching’ of the image to ‘make it better’.
On top of this, our technicians will make sure that every photo print turns out just the way you want it by adjusting the color, the brightness and even cropping them if necessary.
I have had problems with some photoshops not leaving the image alone when I tell them to. Much of the retouching is geared to pocket cameras with poor contrast and cheap DSLRs with the plastic ‘kit lenses’. Putting a good quality image through those ‘auto retouch’ algorithms blows out the contrast.
Alternatively, go to Chrome in Mira Mesa (more expensive, but also pretty consistent).
Didn’t know of them.. though looking at their ‘scanning’ costs, I should go into business. My Nikon film scanner can do 35 negative film and slides as well as 120 base film slides, negatives and medical negatives(4×4 to 4×6). They are doing it at 300dpi and I scan at 4000dpi(optical). Their flatbed is a higher resolution, but I get nervous using a flatbed on film..
ParticipantCostco quality stinks imho…For me, it’s fine for stuff I don’t care about like holiday cards, or for pictures I give away…But for slightly more important stuff, it’s hard to get consistency at Costco, mostly probably because they don’t keep those machines well calibrated all the time.
I have had good luck with the Target near Balboa & Genesse. I am not certain of the Target in Mira Mesa. The Target near Balboa & Genesse has new machines, so they still work correctly. Their printing is oriented towards digital. I don’t know if they can even do film. The 8×10 is on to paper, the smaller sizes are thermal dye transfer. Another place for large prints would be Calumet in North County. One part that worries me about places like ‘Nelson’s is their ‘retouching’ of the image to ‘make it better’.
On top of this, our technicians will make sure that every photo print turns out just the way you want it by adjusting the color, the brightness and even cropping them if necessary.
I have had problems with some photoshops not leaving the image alone when I tell them to. Much of the retouching is geared to pocket cameras with poor contrast and cheap DSLRs with the plastic ‘kit lenses’. Putting a good quality image through those ‘auto retouch’ algorithms blows out the contrast.
Alternatively, go to Chrome in Mira Mesa (more expensive, but also pretty consistent).
Didn’t know of them.. though looking at their ‘scanning’ costs, I should go into business. My Nikon film scanner can do 35 negative film and slides as well as 120 base film slides, negatives and medical negatives(4×4 to 4×6). They are doing it at 300dpi and I scan at 4000dpi(optical). Their flatbed is a higher resolution, but I get nervous using a flatbed on film..
ParticipantCostco quality stinks imho…For me, it’s fine for stuff I don’t care about like holiday cards, or for pictures I give away…But for slightly more important stuff, it’s hard to get consistency at Costco, mostly probably because they don’t keep those machines well calibrated all the time.
I have had good luck with the Target near Balboa & Genesse. I am not certain of the Target in Mira Mesa. The Target near Balboa & Genesse has new machines, so they still work correctly. Their printing is oriented towards digital. I don’t know if they can even do film. The 8×10 is on to paper, the smaller sizes are thermal dye transfer. Another place for large prints would be Calumet in North County. One part that worries me about places like ‘Nelson’s is their ‘retouching’ of the image to ‘make it better’.
On top of this, our technicians will make sure that every photo print turns out just the way you want it by adjusting the color, the brightness and even cropping them if necessary.
I have had problems with some photoshops not leaving the image alone when I tell them to. Much of the retouching is geared to pocket cameras with poor contrast and cheap DSLRs with the plastic ‘kit lenses’. Putting a good quality image through those ‘auto retouch’ algorithms blows out the contrast.
Alternatively, go to Chrome in Mira Mesa (more expensive, but also pretty consistent).
Didn’t know of them.. though looking at their ‘scanning’ costs, I should go into business. My Nikon film scanner can do 35 negative film and slides as well as 120 base film slides, negatives and medical negatives(4×4 to 4×6). They are doing it at 300dpi and I scan at 4000dpi(optical). Their flatbed is a higher resolution, but I get nervous using a flatbed on film..
ParticipantCostco quality stinks imho…For me, it’s fine for stuff I don’t care about like holiday cards, or for pictures I give away…But for slightly more important stuff, it’s hard to get consistency at Costco, mostly probably because they don’t keep those machines well calibrated all the time.
I have had good luck with the Target near Balboa & Genesse. I am not certain of the Target in Mira Mesa. The Target near Balboa & Genesse has new machines, so they still work correctly. Their printing is oriented towards digital. I don’t know if they can even do film. The 8×10 is on to paper, the smaller sizes are thermal dye transfer. Another place for large prints would be Calumet in North County. One part that worries me about places like ‘Nelson’s is their ‘retouching’ of the image to ‘make it better’.
On top of this, our technicians will make sure that every photo print turns out just the way you want it by adjusting the color, the brightness and even cropping them if necessary.
I have had problems with some photoshops not leaving the image alone when I tell them to. Much of the retouching is geared to pocket cameras with poor contrast and cheap DSLRs with the plastic ‘kit lenses’. Putting a good quality image through those ‘auto retouch’ algorithms blows out the contrast.
Alternatively, go to Chrome in Mira Mesa (more expensive, but also pretty consistent).
Didn’t know of them.. though looking at their ‘scanning’ costs, I should go into business. My Nikon film scanner can do 35 negative film and slides as well as 120 base film slides, negatives and medical negatives(4×4 to 4×6). They are doing it at 300dpi and I scan at 4000dpi(optical). Their flatbed is a higher resolution, but I get nervous using a flatbed on film..
ParticipantCostco quality stinks imho…For me, it’s fine for stuff I don’t care about like holiday cards, or for pictures I give away…But for slightly more important stuff, it’s hard to get consistency at Costco, mostly probably because they don’t keep those machines well calibrated all the time.
I have had good luck with the Target near Balboa & Genesse. I am not certain of the Target in Mira Mesa. The Target near Balboa & Genesse has new machines, so they still work correctly. Their printing is oriented towards digital. I don’t know if they can even do film. The 8×10 is on to paper, the smaller sizes are thermal dye transfer. Another place for large prints would be Calumet in North County. One part that worries me about places like ‘Nelson’s is their ‘retouching’ of the image to ‘make it better’.
On top of this, our technicians will make sure that every photo print turns out just the way you want it by adjusting the color, the brightness and even cropping them if necessary.
I have had problems with some photoshops not leaving the image alone when I tell them to. Much of the retouching is geared to pocket cameras with poor contrast and cheap DSLRs with the plastic ‘kit lenses’. Putting a good quality image through those ‘auto retouch’ algorithms blows out the contrast.
Alternatively, go to Chrome in Mira Mesa (more expensive, but also pretty consistent).
Didn’t know of them.. though looking at their ‘scanning’ costs, I should go into business. My Nikon film scanner can do 35 negative film and slides as well as 120 base film slides, negatives and medical negatives(4×4 to 4×6). They are doing it at 300dpi and I scan at 4000dpi(optical). Their flatbed is a higher resolution, but I get nervous using a flatbed on film..
ParticipantMAKE SURE YOU ARE ADEQUATELY COVERED. REVIEW YOUR POLICIES. YOU ARE YOUR OWN BEST ADVOCATE.
If you have a safety deposit box, I would also recommend you doing the following:
Take general digital pictures of inside and outside the house, inside and outside of any cars you have(clean the cars ahead of time – include odometer in one picture), tools or other things of value.. Also scan any important documents that you need to have with you, any passwords etc that you have written down on paper (with all the passwords these days, I know that some people have them written down.. if the browser manages them for you, you will need to locate where the archived – hopefully encrypted password file that the browser uses is located) and copy all of that in some organized fashion onto a thumb drive(USB memory stick). Then place the thumb drive in the safety deposit box.If you are not afraid of a little more tech.. look up TrueCrypt.. you can set up another thumb drive to be an encrypted file system (256bit AES which is considerably stronger than the old mil triple DES) and carry it with you. If you lose it.. no big deal. The password on this one is the one you would have to remember though…
ParticipantMAKE SURE YOU ARE ADEQUATELY COVERED. REVIEW YOUR POLICIES. YOU ARE YOUR OWN BEST ADVOCATE.
If you have a safety deposit box, I would also recommend you doing the following:
Take general digital pictures of inside and outside the house, inside and outside of any cars you have(clean the cars ahead of time – include odometer in one picture), tools or other things of value.. Also scan any important documents that you need to have with you, any passwords etc that you have written down on paper (with all the passwords these days, I know that some people have them written down.. if the browser manages them for you, you will need to locate where the archived – hopefully encrypted password file that the browser uses is located) and copy all of that in some organized fashion onto a thumb drive(USB memory stick). Then place the thumb drive in the safety deposit box.If you are not afraid of a little more tech.. look up TrueCrypt.. you can set up another thumb drive to be an encrypted file system (256bit AES which is considerably stronger than the old mil triple DES) and carry it with you. If you lose it.. no big deal. The password on this one is the one you would have to remember though…
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