[The-Shoveler]

Funny, I was just on the phone with a colleague, said he was coming down to TV to look for future retirement home and spend some time at Pechanga.

Pechanga has to be the biggest draw for newbees comig to TV.

[The-Shoveler]

While I can see the exurbs taking longer to recover, over the long term in SoCal we are forecast to keep growing population at a fair clip. I think the exurbs will look a lot less exurbesh in 20 years.

SoCal is not quite Detroit either. The two are different, I think Shiller was painting with a wide brush.

[The-Shoveler]

SoCal is one big Burb for the most part.
I think it is every environmentalist dream that the remaining people in the world, move to high density cities, and impose some constraint on population growth as well.

But I don’t see that happening at least not in SoCal. Also cities once they become very dense are their own worst enemy as if you really do need to grow a business it is very hard to scale in crowed expensive cities. Telecommuting is not just for work anymore as well, more and more schooling is being be done via telecommute as well.

Gas will be less an issue with 100MPG and Nat-Gas cars (which are coming), someday there may even be some convent mass transit who knows. Look around, every time the city or utility needs to replace a Truck or car, it usually is with a Nat Gas vehicle these days.

As the economy improves the burbs will get back to cost to build+5-20% or so fairly quickly.
With inflation eventually the price will get back to peak nominal price, but that will probably be a while yet.

[The-Shoveler]

25 million jobs a year

http://stanfordreview.org/article/should-america-be-worried-about-china/

OK you tell them they need to slow down.

And we worry about how we are going to get 3 million over the next few years ?

[The-Shoveler]

Me I am not worrying about basic food or security, (I can always go fishing or eat the dang squirrels and gophers that seem in great abundance at my place).
But I am not quite as confident as flu or sdr either.
I am 90% out of market and have about 10% bearish bets (that have been somewhat a disaster as of late admittedly).
I think there is a fair chance that we are seeing a market blow-off currently, also there is a fair chance IRAN or Europe will make headlines again sometime in the next year or so.
Call me hopeful but paranoid. And I am really really good with a shovel, lots of practice.

Fact I once got a gopher with a shovel toss.

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t know if any of you are watching, but man we are in the mists of a market melt-up (or blow-off), that looks all the world like 2000.

Now if this persists Shadow or no shadow, people in general are going to be feeling a lot better and they are going to be looking to upgrade their lives.
Now the real questions IS “is this for real ?”
If this market is for real and not a blow off, Standing in front of that is going to feel like standing in front of a mac truck.,
If it is just a blow off, then look out below!!!!

[The-Shoveler]

So about how long does it take to get a response from the bank to a full price offer on a short sale these days ?

[The-Shoveler]

Really you can make money playing games ?

I got to start doing more of that instead of working.
Just kidding..

[The-Shoveler]

Freddie & Fannie mae have much the same plan starting in April.

WallStreet/DC 2
main street 0

[The-Shoveler]

Wait, Guys isn’t RE supposed to only go down in a unstoppable deflationary spiral until at least 2020 or 2025 ?
I mean shouldn’t there be free (or 1 dollar) homes in coastal SD by 2020 ? well at least in TV anyway ?

[The-Shoveler]

Now only if the States could print their own money, Just kidding,

Did I hear someone say inflation?

[The-Shoveler]

Starting in April I think, Fred&Fan are going to be selling bulk foreclosures to large corporations, who are obligated to rent them out for a period of time. This I think will almost completely kill the foreclosure flip and mom and pop landlords plans.

JMHO.

[The-Shoveler]

Unless the Prez (or something else) reins them in , I am supremely confident the fed can buy an unlimited number treasures and keep rates exactly where they want.
(Inflation is an entirely different matter however),
NOTE:
They print the money, they return every dime profit back to the U.S. treasury once everyyear.
There are very few Gov’s out there that can do that, we can “BECAUSE WE DON’T REALLY NEED ANYONE ELSE, THEY NEED US A LOT MORE THAN WE NEED THEM”
At least for now.

[The-Shoveler]

If our immigration policy was like Canada’s, this web site would probably have died a long time ago.
(but I think it has now taken a new life with a new purpose these days however).

[The-Shoveler]

Saw something saying that 80% of stocks are above their 40 day moving average as of yesterday.

Looks like a circa 2000 blow off to me.
But then again Marc may be right as well, (don’t jump in front of a running printing press.)

[Author]

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