[The-Shoveler]

I am kind of with BG here,

The only mass exit I think that could occur would be caused by some economic catastrophe and it would be the leveraged players being forced most likely.
That said I do think there are a lot of LL who are leveraged to some degree, but most likely it will be the leveraged owner occupiers who will be hurt the worst in such an event.
I don’t see interest rates spiking all of a sudden, I think it will be a very gradual affair Accompanied by equal or more inflation.

All just my opinion of course

Also I will add an economic catastrophe could be a very local event (Natural disaster, qcom decides it would be better off moving to Mexico just kidding).
But it could be a very local thing as well.

[The-Shoveler]

Sounds like a lot of homes,

I hope the SmartPhone Biz stays hot..

[The-Shoveler]

On-Topic
So you think we will be able to buy SD property with Bitcoins?

If so I am in the wrong biz, I need to start mining bitcoins.

“The Bitcoin-to-USD exchange rate had been climbing steadily since January 2013,
from around 30 USD to over 250 USD only 24 hours ago. Now, the value bubble seems to have burst,
at least partially. The primary trading site MtGox reported a drop
in value all the way down to 140 USD today, a loss of almost half in real value.
With many sites unreachable or slow, there are also news of a possible DDoS
attack on MtGox:”

[The-Shoveler]

Really I think all of this applies to anywhere in Coastal SoCal in good school districts (even some not so good).

Even in L.A.

It’s expensive to live along the SoCal coast!!

[The-Shoveler]

All this said, I do know several people who work in Irvine, and live in San Marco’s and Carlsbad area’s
(it’s about an hour commute most days).

You can (well you used to be able to anyway) get a much nicer housing situation in the far northern hinterlands of SD than you could in Irvine for the same money.

Some people are willing to drive (especially if work at home at least part time is possible).

[The-Shoveler]

I would agree with CAR, In L.A. there is a lot more work diversity, import/export is big, entertainment is big, some defense, some Bio-Tech and a lot or tourism etc… (Computer high Tech has really suffered in L.A. the last 12 years however).

Also Public workers generally get quite a bit more than they do in OC or SD and for better or worse that adds quite a bit to the local economies (also to L.A.’s budget problems especially down the road a few years from now).

[The-Shoveler]

Just become a Realtor !!
Just kidding sort of.

I know so many co-workers who have over the years became Realtors after losing their High Tech day job.
(the weird thing is most seem to have been able to make it, which I never thought they would be able to).
That’s why I think RE is a lot more than the 5% of the economy they say it is.
More like 20% I think.
Realtors, insurance agents, different construction types, escrow, etc.. this list goes on.

Yea in high tech you can expect to be looking for work every 5 years or so, me I have been lucky and have been in most jobs 10 or so years, but I am an exception I think.

I think that is why I never got the hang up with CV, it’s kind of a one trick pony (smart phones, app’s etc…). North SD seems more flexible as far as commutes IMO (to me north SD is Carlsbad and points north).

[The-Shoveler]

As far as High Tech software engineering type jobs,
SD is actually not bad especially compared to L.A.
L.A. is a waste land for high tech jobs these days, (most were moved back to San Jose during the tech crash of the early 2000’s).
OC is also not bad compared to L.A. either and is probably about the same commute from SD as it is living in L.A. .
In L.A. Generally you start off working 15 minutes from your work , then after 5-10 years you’re working 40-50 miles away when you next job comes up. (not like San Jose where everything is in one general area).
Everything is far away from everything else in L.A. it seems.

I should say from North SD (Carlsbad etc..) OC is not too bad a commute.
Probably comparable time wise as most L.A. commutes.

[The-Shoveler]

I think there are at least four (well probably more) types of investment animals out there.

1)Big investment groups (wall-street etc…)
These guys I think typically have about five year holding plan.
(these guys are looking in nicer areas generally, they are the real buyers
(non-investment) competition ).

2)Accidental landlords ,
These guys typically have a number (somewhere just above what they paid)

3)Flippers (just out for a quick buck).

4)Long term cash flow investors (retiree’s etc…)
These guys usually don’t buy the homes most buyers are really looking to buy anyway (they might rent them however until they are ready)
Condo’s, smallish three/two’s in just OK areas etc…
Nice homes in nice areas usually don’t cash flow very well.

In short, I think most the real frenzied areas are not long term cash flow investors at this point
Flippers and home owners fighting over what’s available until the builders start to build again.

It takes 6 months to 2 years to get a sizable project started, and the process was almost completely shut down during the crash.

Very very hard to get a sizable project approved in SD these days as well.

[The-Shoveler]

A) there is no place to move to (builders have not started to build the move up homes).

B) even though they are not underwater they would still lose money if they sold now,

C) they are underwater.

[The-Shoveler]

Wow, I had not grasps this fully,
This really could be a watershed moment.

A federal judge earlier this week gave the green light to Stockton, Calif. to restructure under bankruptcy protection despite protests from creditors. The judge signaled that Stockton may have to cut payments to its pension fund, which could set a precedent for other cities. The fight also has pitted California’s pension system, CalPERs, against other bondholders and the Wall Street firms that insure them.

[The-Shoveler]

Yes BG but they want a newer home (2000 or later) with at least a canyon view and good schools.
For that price.

Just kidding sort of.

[The-Shoveler]

I have always driven a truck since the day I started driving,
(very useful my wife loves it).
I don’t own a cowboy hat, but I do have a nice pair of dress-up boots.
I wear a conical paddy hat when working in the yard sometimes.
My neighbors are very confused,

[The-Shoveler]

Japans housing bubble made ours look like mini-me.

At one point the palace grounds were valued by some as more than the value of all the real estate in the state of California.

IMO they never even tried to create inflation as well so a different situation, not the same today however.

[The-Shoveler]

“removed in the next contract will be the cap on COLA.”

Without inflation monetizing I don’t see an option that is not some version of default (more or less).

IMO anyway.

[Author]

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