Tons of inventory in San Diego, none in Orange County

[kev374]

I was under the impression that all of Southern California has a huge problem with inventory but after searching I realized that this affects only Orange and LA counties.

San Diego and environs not only has quite a lot of nice homes for sale but there is also quite a bit of GOOD selection in the under $400k range. I saw a few nice homes all over sub-urban San Diego for $325-400k.

By contrast, Orange County has NOTHING, ZERO close to decent for under $400k unless you really want junk. $400k-500k yields a few listings but most are in the $500k+ range even in nasty neighborhoods.

Why the huge difference?

[SD Realtor]

ummm I am not sure what parts of San Diego you are looking at. In most neighborhoods in San Diego inventory is anywhere from 25% and up below normal. In these same areas homes of any quality are getting double digit offers well over asking price. I cannot comment on OC but if you think San Diego has plenty of inventory you are seriously incorrect.

Perhaps you should look at the San Diego active inventory on the front page of this blog under Riches posts.

[CA renter]

Yep, what SDR said.

I’ve been tracking certain parts of SD and LA counties for over a decade, and the pattern is the same in both right now. Inventory down around 50%, YOY. It is a horrible time to be a buyer right now, no matter where you are.

[Wah-Wah]

it’d be very interesting this buying season if inventory remains this low.

[SD Realtor]

If you call buyers getting squeezed and double digit appreciation interesting then yeah I guess so. I call it pretty crappy for people trying to buy a home.

[no_such_reality]

You didn’t read between the lines.

OC, sub-$400K isn’t to his or her liking. There are 4000 listings in OC (roughly one month supply at peak sales) 25% of them are below $400K. 166 are SFRs

San Diego has 5000 units for sales west of Ramona. 626 are SFRs.

This is a typical sub-$400K SFR listing in SD. http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/6109-Kerch-St-92115/home/5519733

This is a typical sub-$400K SFR listing in OC http://www.redfin.com/CA/Anaheim/1401-W-Dogwood-Ave-92801/home/3196204
Actually this one of the nicer ones and low priced for some reason

[SD Realtor]

Well funny because the San Diego listing you showed is the home I listed for a client a few months ago. His parents passed away and they sold it. The reality is that the neighborhood is a mid 200k hood for homes but the flippers have come in, swamped it, and are now making good bucks on flips. It would not be considered a nice neighborhood with decent school districts by any means.

I do understand your point from a numerical standpoint. I think that the quantity of sub 400k homes in San Diego is higher simply because of a mix of lower income spread between the middle of the county. Additionally out to the east and northeast there are plenty of lower priced options.

Still the stress for the neighbourhoods that most residents want to be in and/or desired school districts can be classified as historically high.

[no_such_reality]

I don’t doubt that’s not the greatest neighborhood from a socio-economic standpoint.

The one in OC requires you to not wear the wrong colors.

and the obvious point.. $400K post flip /= $400K pre-flip condition

[bearishgurl]

[quote=kev374] . . . By contrast, Orange County has NOTHING, ZERO close to decent for under $400k unless you really want junk. $400k-500k yields a few listings but most are in the $500k+ range even in nasty neighborhoods.[/quote]

[quote=no_such_reality]You didn’t read between the lines.

OC, sub-$400K isn’t to his or her liking. There are 4000 listings in OC (roughly one month supply at peak sales) 25% of them are below $400K. 166 are SFRs

San Diego has 5000 units for sales west of Ramona. 626 are SFRs.[/quote]

You’re damn straight there are, NSR. Thank for for pointing this out about the OC and SD County.

[quote=SD Realtor]Well funny because the San Diego listing you showed is the home I listed for a client a few months ago . . . Additionally out to the east and northeast there are plenty of lower priced options.[/quote]

And so you acknowledge this fact so you must also know that Santee has great schools! And some of the schools in EC are also very good, right??

Do you really believe Poway, for example, is better-located than Santee or El Cajon? Or that is has better weather or better houses, even for $100K more than Santee?? And, as a “RE professional,” (former/current, full or PT, doesn’t matter) are comparable houses in size and age located within the PUSD REALLY WORTH $100-$200K more than those in Santee or EC??

Be honest. And, if you really believe similarly-situated SFRs are worth $100K ++ more in the PUSD than, say, Santee, for instance, tell us why.

Have you considered that any school-aged children in the the neighborhood of your former listing (Rolando) could likely “choice” into Lewis/Pershing MS and Henry HS in accordance with the NCLB Act?

There is no difference in the quality of education between the Henry High cluster and the Poway High cluster (where young families seem to be “flocking to” and upbidding each other for SFR’s … even marginal ones, lol).

[quote=SD Realtor]The reality is that the neighborhood is a mid 200k hood for homes but the flippers have come in, swamped it, and are now making good bucks on flips. It would not be considered a nice neighborhood with decent school districts by any means. . . . .

Still the stress for the neighbourhoods that most residents want to be in and/or desired school districts can be classified as historically high.[/quote]

SDR, you’re an experienced agent in SD Metro/East Metro and former flipper yourself, no?

Do you think flippers are entitled to make a profit? Do you think the typical buyer of your former Rolando listing would be able to improve it in this manner after purchase? Do flippers serve a purpose? Are they asking too much for it? Do you honestly believe it would resell in the “mid $200K” price range today if it had not been purchased in 12/12 for $275K and susequently flipped and re-marketed? Do you think this cyn-lot home was “worth” $275K in its former state (when the “flippers” purchased it)?

What kind of crap was listed within the PUSD in the last quarter of 2012 for ~$275K? Anything?? Are the “low end” houses within the PUSD so special that they are somehow “worth” $100K – $200K more than those in Santee or EC?

And WHO exactly are “most residents?” You don’t consider the Rolando charmer on a HUGE (18K++? sf) canyon lot to be “desirable” to a buyer? Are current buyers out there representative of “most residents?”

If they are one and the same, do you think it is “wise” for “most residents”/current buyers to grossly overbid for marginal properties within the (heavily indebted) PUSD?

[quote=no_such_reality]This is a typical sub-$400K SFR listing in SD. http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/6109-Kerch-St-92115/home/5519733

This is a typical sub-$400K SFR listing in OC http://www.redfin.com/CA/Anaheim/1401-W-Dogwood-Ave-92801/home/3196204

Actually this one of the nicer ones and low priced for some reason[/quote]

Nice house in Anaheim as well and no doubt extremely conveniently located to all. Lots of goodies for that price. Thanks for sharing, NSR!

You made your point . . . and mine. I’ve been saying all along that the “perceived inventory problem” (especially for FTB’s) is bogus.

[The-Shoveler]

Yes BG but they want a newer home (2000 or later) with at least a canyon view and good schools.
For that price.

Just kidding sort of.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“Why the huge difference ?”

Simple: OC is more expensive than SD county.

Sometimes, the simplest explanation is the best.

The median price for SD County is ~ 400k
The Median price for OC is ~ 530k

SO, it’s no surprise really that if you restrict your sites to under $400 k there is less desirable inventory in OC compared to SD.

[sunny88]

Is it your opinion that the homes are overpriced again. If that’s the case why are buyers so crazy to get in?

[SD Realtor]

It is not the case that people are crazy to get in. It is simply the case that the inventory that buyers have to choose from is a fraction of what it normally is. You don’t have a huge increase in buyers, you have a severely reduced supply. The result is that you get a frenzied atmosphere for any property out there.

[Wah-Wah]

the real question is why aren’t more sellers? is this a best time to sell?

[The-Shoveler]

A) there is no place to move to (builders have not started to build the move up homes).

B) even though they are not underwater they would still lose money if they sold now,

C) they are underwater.

[Author]

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