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The-Shoveler
Participant19% does seem rather high to me as well but who knows!
Actually I like the TV area, I think it has a great future but obviously it’s not for everybody.
If you found the area acceptable I think it you would find it a great investment 10 years from now.
How you get there is another issue.
But good luck.I need to find that crystal ball, where is TG when you need him LOL.
ParticipantOK My bad I thought it was a condo.
Still I would think you should be able to find a condo in North county for that 300-350K (maybe an older 3-2) a little inland.
ParticipantWow, 300K for a Condo in TV!
Sounds like a real nice condo, I would think you could find a condo in north county for that. maybe not walking distance to the beach however.
Just remember The HOA Nazi’s are much the same all over, if that is the issue.
Participant[quote=no_such_reality]
Shoveler, how many of those boomers will consume their house in retirement? For today’s generation of home buyers to replicate what happened, those $800K homes in Irvine will need to be ten million in 30 years. Maybe Cali will keep growing that way.
Personally, I think the boomers have simply benefited by the pig in python effect coupled with a happy timing of a real estate bubble currently being redriven by historically low interest rates. The next 30 years will be interesting as the boomers become net sellers.
There’s a reason most wealth managers look at assets outside of a primary residence. It’s in what you cited, they won’t sell, or more maybe, can’t sell. Can’t sell without massively changing their life, relocating usually out of the area. In effect, their house is a sunk cost.[/quote]
It’s a small sample to be sure, but all my family has stayed in their SoCal homes until they passed.
That’s what prop-13 will do for you LOL.
The few friends I grew up with (who stayed) are planning to do the same and pass their home to their kids (who will likely sell in most cases, so it most likely won’t be these boomers who sell but their heirs).Not a sunk cost I think, just an investment you live in.
I have to add, the current low inflation we have been living since 1990 or so, is very unusual (strange even), we have China to thank for that I think.
ParticipantYea I have heard that story so many times from people I have known who have left and got established somewhere else, they always say how much they regret leaving SoCal, most of these left before age 30.
Maybe that’s what made me stay LOL.
ParticipantVery few natives stay past age 30, most everyone else is from somewhere else so they generally planned to go back from where they came from the beginning (even those who can afford to stay) at least that is what I have seen.
Once you leave (and get established somewhere else) it is incredibly hard and expensive to move back, even from somewhere like NY where it is even more expensive generally.
Most the natives I know who have stayed have long since paid off their homes before retirement and you can’t get them to move. maybe I run with a small crowd however.
That is actually a big complaint in San Jose, Retiree’s don’t want to sell and move!!! LOL
The Natives I am talking about are boomer’s who originally bought their homes in the 80’s and 90’s and did not take all the equity out to buy new BMW’s (yes there are many believe it or not).
ParticipantWhen Godzilla comes into town, you don’t see him coming to shore in SD.
OK OK just kidding. (but the wealth effect/depression) would take it’s toll.ParticipantIn the case of Irvin I think you have two things going on.
1) There are a lot of people with old house wealth (they originally bought in OC way back in the 80’s & 90’s)
2) Dual income families (each earning 6 figures), no way close to the national average (or even OC average, top 5-10 %).
ParticipantWell if the stock market went back to the way it was in the 70’s (not saying that’s going to happen), but if banking suddenly became boring.
I think NY would be in the same boat as they were in the 70’s
Not far from Detroit actually,(part of that depression/”lack of wealth effect” type of thing).
For those who remember, or who have seen any number of movies set in NY at the time (Death Wish, etc.): New York City resembled a disutopian vision of a dark future. The city government was so broke the police had to go on strike to get paid. The perception, true or false, that crime and gang activity were threatening the survival of the middle class. Garbage strikes, decayed infrastructure, rat infestation. New York was a mess in a league of it’s own.
Participant[quote=spdrun]General deflation is bad. Deflation in sectors that were artificially inflated can be a positive thing, despite the mewling of the muppets who bought homes they couldn’t afford in the 2000s bubble and are now under water.[/quote]
Which again circles us back to #3,
They can’t afford the pension and promised benefits without the inflated home prices.
Participant#3 Is what the Fed is worried about mostly.
Well that and deflation/depression.
ParticipantKind of why I think all the Central banks are desperately inflating the markets in unison, they have no choice. They can’t afford another crash (at least or a while).
Can you imagine what a 50% decline in the market would do right now ?
What’s not tolerable will not be allowed to happen IMO.
ParticipantI got no hard stats but From 2008-2009 then from 2011 to early 2012, there were a lot fewer organic listings compared to 2013 IMO.
There were a lot more REO’s however.
ParticipantJust my 2-cents.
I think the SD market is a lot more sensitive to interest rates above 4.5% – 5% than most think.But at the same time I think we have seen that if prices go down, sellers will go back into hiding unless they are forced to sell for one reason or the other.
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