[The-Shoveler]

IMO can’t discount the sugar high,

In the mid 80’s mortgage rates were in the 10’s housing was going up 15-20% a year in LA (defense spending boom sugar high).

[The-Shoveler]

Not an expert so take my opinion with a large grain of salt.

IMO we are still way way underbuilt so this can go on until that is resolved (seems that could take a few more years IMO).

Plus any crash would be not even close to anything like 2007-10 crash unless two things happen IMO.

1) Builders way over build (not as likley this time IMO).
2) Lenders go crazy like last time (also not likely this time but you never know LOL).

There is still a lot of stimulus sugar for housing being talked about (like 25K grants to first time home buyers) so that will just make it go up more IMO.

IMO only your mileage may vary.

[The-Shoveler]

I bought my first new car in 1976, by the time I paid it off in 1979 I could have sold it for about the same or maybe a little more than I paid.

Another inflation story. My friend who was married to someone from brazil told me his father in-law bought a boat a few years later it cost more for a new set of spark plugs than what the boat originally cost.

[The-Shoveler]

OK same question 3 years later
Would you invest in an S&P500 ETF now?

3 years ago the correct answer was yes Obviously, There is still lots of stimulus sugar to spend which I am fairly confident will benefit the housing market but not so sure stocks IMO.

Also China Bans Financial Institutions From Participating in Crypto Services.
Does not want competition with the digital yuan I guess.
IMO I think that is coming here as well.

[The-Shoveler]

One thing I remember about 1999 that reminds me of today is stocks/industries that were easy to put a hard number on were not worth crap but fantasy/story stocks with no real earnings were worth billions LOL.

That said, IMO housing still a ways to go I think.

[The-Shoveler]

To be honest it does remind me of the end of 1999.

Party!!

[The-Shoveler]

Keeping all my old vehicles, Plan to turn them into EV’s when low cost conversion kits become available.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=an]
I would say the positive vs negative will depend on which side is in the white house. Every time I turn on CNN during Trump, I would get an impression that the sky is falling and now, it’s Fox’s turn.[/quote]

LOL yes its a sad state of affairs where our major news media outlets have basically become propaganda outlets for one extreme view or the other.

Probably the only thing keeping CNN alive is Trump LOL, they don’t really do world news anymore or for the last 5 or so years.

[The-Shoveler]

LA in the 80’s was on a defense spending sugar high, we had rates in the 11’s and housing was going nuts. well until the sugar was removed about 1989.

I am super busy and company is doing very well as well even with covid and everyone working at home (just a data point).

One more data point I think people forget, back in the 80’s California was a red state (it goes back and forth believe it or not).

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=njtosd]Haven’t posted here in a while, but every time I’m on reddit and I see something from the subreddit ZillowGoneWild I think about you guys: https://www.reddit.com/r/zillowgonewild/ It’s not all unpleasant homes for sale. Some are – but others are just weird. This one is a heavy duty prepper mansion (described as having “Nuclear/Biological Fallout Shelter & Separate Mother-In-Law Suite” – are they the same thing?): https://www.reddit.com/r/zillowgonewild/comments/n8f14h/picture_48_is_where_you_wanna_start_if_you_want/
This one looks like it’s out of the movie “Outrageous Fortune” (very modern 80s): https://www.reddit.com/r/VaporwaveAesthetics/comments/mzacxg/this_house_on_zillow/
What looks like a dungeon: https://www.reddit.com/r/zillowgonewild/comments/mmzvxt/i_thought_it_was_a_gun_safe_at_first_now_i_think/
I love reddit – or at least parts of reddit. My kids are concerned because they think it’s all smut (and they say it’s for “neck beard” guys, which is confusing), but I have a well curated list of subreddits that are PG at worst. r/ BrandNewSentence is one of my current favorites.
I’m surprised there aren’t more “when is this bubble going to pop?” threads here. We’re probably going to sell in the next year or so and move up to SLO – get a little farm and some chickens. Hopefully this will last til then :)[/quote]

I am surprised more people are not complaining about the extreme stimulus sugar high.

Or maybe that’s something again no one is supposed to talk about.

[The-Shoveler]

LOL if you have an everything bubble (including wages) would that not be the definition of inflation?

( or at least a super stimulus sugar high )

I think it will end up being a combo IMO, high inflation followed by muted sugar high crash (that’s “IF” TPTB allow it LOL). Or could just be more and more super stimulus until we adopt the Zimbabwean dollar as official US currency (just kidding sort of LOL).

[The-Shoveler]

LOL one more funny thing I remember was sometime in late 1970’s (I think 1978), my friends dad (same guy I visited last week) predicted inflation was going to be so bad, that we would be paying 1 million+ for our houses (well he was a bit too early on that call but still close LOL, his house still the same house he lived in then would probably sell for about 1 million today).

🙂

[The-Shoveler]

hmmm don’t have exact figures but it seems to me home prices in LA went up about 4x from 1970 to 1980.

I remember my father bragging about paying off the ~1971 30 year mortgage with the Christmas bonus about 1980 or so.

Then it seems they went up about 2x between 1980 ad 1988 most of that was inflation IMO. Then 90’s defense crash in LA and 94 quake I think prices were about 40% lower in 1995 or so (from 1988).
Home prices were basically flat from 1996 – 1999 Late 1999 prices started to sky rocket with the internet bubble.
After the Stock Market crash of 2000 no one wanted anything to do with stocks LOL so they put it all in RE.

[The-Shoveler]

Duplicate

[The-Shoveler]

Biden: Jobs report shows “Long way to go”

IMO expect even more Stimulus sugar high ahead LOL

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