When will market crash ? Opinions?

[23109VC]

When do you think prices will start to drop? I am in temecula abs prices are going up and up. Houses list and sell immediately for way over asking. Feels like 2005 all over again …. is it gonna implode or just Peter out ?

[spdrun]

I don’t think it will crash, but it will normalize this summer, since people will be more comfortable listing their homes and having open houses if COVID is no longer a major issue. People will list to take advantage of higher prices.

[The-Shoveler]

Not an expert so take my opinion with a large grain of salt.

IMO we are still way way underbuilt so this can go on until that is resolved (seems that could take a few more years IMO).

Plus any crash would be not even close to anything like 2007-10 crash unless two things happen IMO.

1) Builders way over build (not as likley this time IMO).
2) Lenders go crazy like last time (also not likely this time but you never know LOL).

There is still a lot of stimulus sugar for housing being talked about (like 25K grants to first time home buyers) so that will just make it go up more IMO.

IMO only your mileage may vary.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I don’t think it will crash, but it will normalize this summer, since people will be more comfortable listing their homes and having open houses if COVID is no longer a major issue. People will list to take advantage of higher prices.[/quote]

Huh? I don’t think COVID is really detracting people from listing their houses or having open houses because of the virus itself….

when a house comes on the market, you have to sign a bunch of waivers and then schedule a viewing time. The listing agent, given how hot the market is, usually provides a few days (usually over the weekend) where you can schedule and view the house in 15-20 minute time slots. Then usually all offers are accepted up to monday…Then there’s usually
multiple counter offer across the 10-30+ offers on that one house, if the seller even bothers with a counter. In my last case, the seller didn’t even bother to counter and just picked one offer.

I don’t know. Where’s there’s 200 new construction homes in 3Roots / Sorrento Mesa, and there’s 14,000 applicants interest in those 200 homes (and that’s only the number of applicants before the builders stopped accepting more applicants…) …. I don’t know… That seems to me there’s still a lot of people looking for a home an no inventory relieve in sight….

If I were to guess, some people probably aren’t selling because maybe, just maybe they are holding on thinking that they can get an even higher price a few months from now.. Who knows. There was a condo that the seller countered 6 of us, me one of them being cash. I already put a bid slightly above asking $608k, cash offer, 15 day close no loan contigency. A few days later, seller cancelled selling the condo and decided to hold onto it and rent it out. Go figure…

I mean think about it. 200 homes 14,000 applicants….
https://www.piggington.com/3roots

That seems pretty consistent with what some of the on-the-ground realtors are saying that when a nice north county home comes on the market, there’s like 40+ families bidding on that 1 home. In some cases 70 families bidding… 70:1 ratio as crazy as it sounds probably happens more frequently these days.

[sdrealtor]

Dude, he doesn’t even live here

[Coronita]

The other thing about the 70:1 buyer to house ratio…

1. Sellers can simply choose the highest offer even if it has a loan contigency. There’s virtually no need to worry about things falling out of escrow of a need to rush to close escrow out of fear of losing the buyer…Because if the buyer doesn’t perform, there’s 69 other backup buyers to choose from, lol…
Cash is trash unless you want to overbid on cash or totally leverage up the ying yang to participate in this game…As an investor, I don’t want to compete against 70 people looking for a home to live in…because since it will be an owner occupied home, they are more likely to spend a lot more money on a home even to the point of irrationality…

Also, with a 70:1 ratio, I’m pretty sure some new construction builders will stop with the traditional lottery system of determining who can buy a new home…It would make much more sense for the builders to auction off the homes and put them into a bidding war… Come on, builders aren’t dumb. There’s 14,000 applicants for 200 homes… The builders would have to be stupid NOT change the sales process to maximize their profits… Or at least what they will to is totally fully option out the homes and make the buyers pay for all the upgrades with the builder’s markup. Think limited edition car sold at MSRP, but fully loaded with options also at MSRP.

I mean, right now, it’s a total seller’s market on steroids, I think most homes are going well above asking. I forget where I read that statistics.

[Anonymous]

[quote=spdrun]I don’t think it will crash, but it will normalize this summer, since people will be more comfortable listing their homes and having open houses if COVID is no longer a major issue. People will list to take advantage of higher prices.[/quote]

Certainly it can’t stay on this trajectory forever. When Covid and it’s associated policy changes peter out the market will certainly cool off.

But as discussed ad nauseum in other threads, a major market correction or crash is unlikely to happen unless the Fed raises interest rates and takes away the proverbial punch bowl.

Unfortunately, the Fed induced “wealth effect” is basically the entire economy so they know they can’t pull the plug. Just like in the 2000s the housing market basically was the economy. They let it crash and it nearly took down the entire financial system. This time the bubble is much bigger and broader so I don’t really think the Fed cares about inflation regardless of their so called “mandate”.

Last year Powell said he wasn’t even thinking about thinking about inflation. Now that inflation is clearly visible to everyone, he is calling it “transitory”. So not holding my breath.

[sdrealtor]

I do a little business up that way not a ton so take this with a grain of salt. With prices so high in SD, young families and others will increasingly get pushed further up that way. Thats tough when you are commuting to an office in Sorrento valley everyday but a lot less so when you do it 2 or 3 days a week with a flex workplace. Even if SD turns, Temecula should continue to benefit from that. More than anything though that area is interest rate sensitive as most of those pushed up there will be mid range incomes. I think it would take rates into the mid 4’s to have any real impact up that way. Even then it should be fine. Prices could pull back 10% here or there but 20% or more just doesnt seem to be in cards Im reading

[Escoguy]

Meanwhile

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-21/mega-landlords-are-snapping-up-zillow-homes-before-the-public-can-see-them?sref=AtMgUiWa

The other day I got a call from a “buyer” asking me for a price on one I had bought a few months ago 92027 4BR 2400 SF. I threw out 950K partly to be ridiculous but partly as I think that is where the market will go in a year.

Sure enough, just down the street one is now listed at 990K (with a pool) and they are lining up to buy with 600 views in one day and 36 saves. Rule of thumb, every save on Zillow adds 1K above list.

Back in 2000 when I bought my first home, I thought about the theoretical possibility if the US went to Japanese interest rates of 1% or less.

I guess my point is, in a world with zero rates, US/So Cal and specifically San Diego real estate is a very appealing asset class. I’ve seen a few asset price collapse Texas in the 1980s, Russia in 1999. There will be a softening here, but not at all on the radar now.

[svelte]

[quote=Escoguy]
The other day I got a call from a “buyer” asking me for a price on one I had bought a few months ago 92027 4BR 2400 SF. I threw out 950K partly to be ridiculous but partly as I think that is where the market will go in a year.

Sure enough, just down the street one is now listed at 990K (with a pool)[/quote]

As you elude to, probably for sale by the “buyer” who called you!

[gzz]

Sellers can simply choose the highest offer even if it has a loan contingency.

I never got the whole “cash offer is king I’ll take that over the higher financed offer” thing.

If I get an offer that includes a bank statement showing the ability to easily put 25% down and a preapproval letter for the whole amount, I will take that over a cash offer 1% lower.

Maybe “cash offer” is being used as a short-hand for “very firm no-BS offer” and the buyers who complain about losing out to lower cash offers have shaky finances and picky contingencies.

I also have some solidarity with people who don’t have huge piles of cash, as long as they show me strong evidence they can get financing.

[sdrealtor]

I always say everyone is cash at closing. However not everyone is 25% down and there are lots of factors to consider. Each situation is unique and different. It’s one of the reasons real estate data is so suspect. With all that said in nearly all cases highest offer wins the day

FWIW the cash offer is king comes from the cash buyer not the seller

[Coronita]

[quote=gzz]

Sellers can simply choose the highest offer even if it has a loan contingency.

I never got the whole “cash offer is king I’ll take that over the higher financed offer” thing.

If I get an offer that includes a bank statement showing the ability to easily put 25% down and a preapproval letter for the whole amount, I will take that over a cash offer 1% lower.

Maybe “cash offer” is being used as a short-hand for “very firm no-BS offer” and the buyers who complain about losing out to lower cash offers have shaky finances and picky contingencies.

I also have some solidarity with people who don’t have huge piles of cash, as long as they show me strong evidence they can get financing.[/quote]

In certain times, there was value for someone that can close quicker than someone who has a loan contigency. For example, if someone is selling to buy another place, the seller sometimes would rather choose a more “sure” thing IE someone like me who could remove all contingencies within 10-15 days, versus say 17-19 days + still have a loan/appraisal contingency because maybe part their funds used for selling their current place is needed for the new home because the longer someone takes to close, the greater the chances are for people to back out or get cold feet and then restart the process and find another buyer.

But these days, when there’s like a 20:1 or 30:1 buyer to house ratio, quick closing is much less important because chances are if the first buyer can’t perform, there’s probably 19-29+ other buyers that will gladly take their place. And who knows you might even be able to get even more money for it….
So sellers are more inclined (probably) to go with the highest offer, even if there’s a possibility that the buyer can’t perform.

And there’s no way I probably will beat these people getting a loan to try to buy their primary home..Because for me, there’s a point which I think this doesn’t make financial sense and can’t push myself further to buy. But for others who are buying this home as their primary, some aren’t thinking purely financially but looking at it as something they plan on living for a long time, and so it’s probably ok to spend more for home ownership. Me, I’m not as attached to that specific property, and just want any property that makes slightly sense. So in this market, I’ll probably lose close to 99% of the time…But that’s ok, because I just need that 1% win every so often so i can park my money somewhere in between a 0.1% CD and a overheated stock market….And i like rental properties when the target audience is for your seasoned professional, like a qualcomm engineer just starting out or someone similar who is more than well qualified to rent… The search continues…

[sdrealtor]

Every situation is different. Sometimes cash matters sometimes it highest price (more often than not). You dont find out until you step up to the plate and take a swing. Those are always risk free to take

[svelte]

The only way housing will tank is if something hits employment and the government doesn’t ease the pain by giving them cash.

That would force some homeowners into selling or foreclosure, but any of that happening is still awhile away. At least in SoCal. It will happen again at some point in the future but not this year.

The stock market, on the other hand. That’s a different story.

[Author]

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