[temeculaguy]

Brian, some reporter in OC did an in depth piece on it. It’s not scientific research but at least a reporter is asking questions like “where are you from and how did you get here.”

Are drug rehab centers fueling homelessness in Southern California?

He affirmed some of your assertions but not that small towns send them to coastal cities, for profit treatment centers fly them out until their insurance runs out, then kick them out and they don’t wander far. Plus they prefer the weather.

[temeculaguy]

“Seattle is dying” is from a local ABC news affiliate so it’s not a fox news production and at the end of the hour things seem clear, evidence based solutions are needed. I’ll be the first to admit documentaries can be biased, not sure if this one is but instead of just showing a problem, they show a solution. Complaining is not a strategy, show me proof that an alternative can work, now that is a strategy. It’s not a partisan problem, SD should go with what works. The Seattle model doesn’t work but maybe Rhode Island has something that can be replicated. Rhode island is a Blue State for those keeping score, perhaps that will make this an easier pill to swallow since this is a liberal vs liberal argument being made and the Rhode island liberals seem to have the better answer. I don’t care who comes up with the the answer as long as it works. My apologies if it takes an hour of your life but it’s worthwhile to watch it to the end.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=svelte][quote=FlyerInHi]I wanted Avenatti because it would have been satisfying to have a fighter give Republicans a taste of their own medicine, but he’s no longer in that running.
[/quote]

Boy, after reading about all of Avenatti’s shenanigans, I bet you regret endorsing that messed up individual.

He just seemed sleazy to me since the first time I saw him speak on TV. He just came across that way.[/quote]

I don’t regret supporting Avenatti. I would still send him a nice contribution check if he got the nomination. I love Avenatti’s beautiful expensive suits, his IQ, his hardball tactics, his love of money and the high life. Why not? *Shrug* Nothing Trump didn’t do.[/quote]

Way to double down. I believe the saying goes “better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.”

[temeculaguy]

Scardey, no need to apologize, I only used the example as a historical reference. Everything happens for a reason. Had I lucked into a windfall I would have squandered it. Keep in mind I was a 40 year old divorced guy, I wouldn’t have paid off my house I would have bought some exotic car, found a gold digger for wife #2 and been on these boards looking to make up for poor decisions once again. Because I pussed out, I found a wonderful, reasonable, low maintenance wife who insisted on a pre-nup so my kids would not resent her as an inheritance thief. A decade later, my wife is still the same person I met and I’ll never have to donate real estate again or find another wife. So you did me a favor, because I do not believe I was mentally equipped to handle that money at the time. Once again, everything happens for a reason, and I chose to take that advice so it’s on me and any regrets are in jest, I’m grateful for how life turned out. I did like your self actualization on your wife and how her strategy is likely better. Even Brian admitted others are better at this, thus his endorsement of mutual funds. I like these new admissions.

FLU, spot on once again. Leaving alone retirement funds is fantastic advice, my experience in the investments I’ve left passive have been the most successful, furthering my understanding as I age that my emotions are my greatest enemy. When I enter a casino and play 3 card poker, I win more at 3 card poker when I play “blind.” Furthering my theory that emotion and money should be kept separate, not that casinos are a good investment. I only say this because I have to attend a wedding in vegas soon and I’ve decided I’m not playing any games of skill while there, especially given my proclivity to partake in the free beverages on offer there. It took 50 years to learn my faults, but at least I learned them.

[temeculaguy]

You might be the lucky winner or you might just realize the MSM has been less than honest since the majority of people benefited. I ended up about the same, perhaps slightly worse off. But my kids and step kids who do not own homes benefited greatly. I do their taxes, and those who do not itemize but were kinda on the cusp of would be buyers were the big winners, but nobody will tell you that, most polls and articles say the opposite. I still encourage those in low price and low tax states to buy, but those still in So Cal I think this may be the X factor, however I have seen no evidence yet that it impacting prices. The reality is the people that can afford So Cal homes pay enough in state taxes to use up the salt limit that property taxes are no longer deductible, self included. But no sign of that yet in prices, not sure if we will see it. The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent, as the saying goes.

[temeculaguy]

While i won’t dispute the cyclical expectation of a recession, the fact that everyone is predicting it makes me suspicious. I also won’t dispute the winning streak of adjustable mortgages, which is why mine is fixed. Contrarian has worked more for me than trendy. I went trendy once based on advice from this site when I was poised to invest just after the crash.

https://www.piggington.com/dow_to_4000#comment-115789

read down a few comments, it’s my fault but I picked 6 stocks and everyone talked me out of it. I just checked some of them, okay three of them and I was too nauseous to keep checking. Costco at $38, it’s $244 today, Harley at $8 is $38 now. HOV was .58 and now $13, oh the humanity. But everyone said buy gold at 1200, just checked, 1300. When everyone zigs, you should zag.

BTW FLU, you win, playing the market to eliminate debt is the bomb. I would have just used my profits for hedonistic endeavors as it was a different time for me personally so perhaps I’m better off. Or I’ll just keep telling myself that so I can feel better.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=FlyerInHi]That’s why we need CalExit. Homeless people come to our mild California weather and generous benefits by the thousands (not really that many in the scheme of things). I don’t think Californians are moving to Kentucky to become homeless.

What burns me is that the states that send us their worst people think that the homeless problem is a coastal city thing. People come here to beg because of the attractive environment. We need CalExit so we can deport these people them back home to their folks.[/quote]

But if you said this same thing about other countries rather than other states you’d have to hate yourself?

I like the new brian!

Sorry guys, I know I said at lunch today I was going to ignore these types of things and stay with real estate, my bad.

[temeculaguy]

Just some data:

Interesting in depth article from orange county on how the homeless are being imported by for profit drug treatment centers in so cal.

Are drug rehab centers fueling homelessness in Southern California?

Then there was some references in this thread to somehow tail light tickets and run down house violations are leading to homelessness.

Perhaps, but it’s not your city or county causing this, it’s the state.

https://www.ticketsnipers.com/article/where-money-from-your-traffic-fines-go

https://newsroom.courts.ca.gov/facts/anatomy-of-a-traffic-ticket-in-california

That second article shows where a fine goes. The local jurisdiction like a city who pays the cops to enforce traffic laws barely makes it’s money back and have kept fines the same for 20+ years. It’s the state legislature that has tacked on fees tripling the fines mostly to pay for things they are responsible for. Both teams are to blame, when Pete Wilson was in office it started and I remember back then reading an article that LAPD traffic citations fell by half because they lost money on tickets since the lion share of the money went elsewhere. It’s okay to get mad, just get mad at the right people and it’s been incremental by leaders from both teams, but it’s not the city of San Diego, it’s not Todd Gloria that can fix it, ask Gavin to fix it. I’m not defending Todd, not a fan at all, just pointing out that the fault may lie elsewhere. Plus Todd is a progressive, it’s against his ideology to act against the homeless so that’s the wrong tree to bark up. Not sure there is a tree to bark up these days. Funny thing is, Brin actually mentioned something about a 5 year residency test for services, that’s an idea that is worth looking into and since he is as progressive as they come perhaps Todd will go for that. That may very well be the solution if the OC article is not just anecdotal, which I cannot prove or disprove just from an article.

Final article but to give some data to the assertion that cities attract the poor, California is just a little more attractive. Sorry it’s an old article but I’m sleepy so I went with the first one and I doubt the UT would run an article like this today since that paper has downsized so much it’s all regurgitation nowadays.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sdut-welfare-capital-of-the-us-2012jul28-htmlstory.html

disclaimer: the opinion of the author in no way indicates an opposition to the points expressed by other posters, just adding some reference material to previous assertions. Consider it added flavor and not an alternative entree.

[temeculaguy]

Thejq, nice SALT reference, I think that is the X factor moving forward. AN and FLU, spot on stuff. The math is not the same, it makes more sense now. It’s not an automatic buy in every town and in every deal but it is in certain instances.

I’ve purchased three primary homes in my time on the planet and timed the market exactly once. I’m not a huge fan of that strategy. When I timed it incorrectly I had to stay a few extra years, when I hit the middle it didn’t matter due to a divorce and when I nailed it I attributed it to this site. But in retrospect, rnting and timing is a fools errand. Just be fundamentally sound and hope to get lucky.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=flu]

There is an excessive compulsive like addiction between alt-left post by BrianSD and this real estate website…just like some people are addicted to chocolate, and some people are addicted to porn… and others are alcoholi
Tcs… same thing…[/quote]

I like chocolate but I’m not addicted to it, I’ll concede the other two.

[temeculaguy]

You see Astrid, that is why some of us think you might be Brian. You gave a heartfelt personal story that I thought might be credible to explain your weak street cred and track history. But your comment assuming I’m a troll is lost on the old timers, however it may be Brian’s latest incarnation to throw us off because even Brian wouldn’t call me a troll using the two names we know hm by.

What FLU refers to as old timers were a group of people with similar observations but differing opinions. Many of whom have shared the little ups and downs life throws at all of us, health, family, etc. I was proud to be a part of it. We were a community and I’m thinking of getting a MPGA hat, because I want to make piggington great again. I think the hat should be gray, because we don’t represent a political ideology, we were just geeks who figured out the great recession before it happened.

FLU, I’m glad to see you doing well. I absolutely loved your explanation. Flyer/brian/astrid may be the same person but that remains to be seen. Astrid might not be brian playing dumb, just someone who doesn’t remember or didn’t really retain what they read back in the day. But in the Immortal words of Omar, “you come at the king, you best not miss.”

Quotes from “the wire” are just coming naturally now, next I plan to to find my sense of humor again and then my reclamation will be complete. Thanks Astrid, I’m back to my old self.

[temeculaguy]

Sd was listed in some study as the 7th least affordable of the 50 largest metros. LA and SF being the worst. That still doesn’t mean the quote from Keynes from a century ago isn’t true today “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

We saw this with the great recession, SD did not have the 50% declines experienced elsewhere so it probably wont next time either. It pains me to say but brian has a point, if it makes you happy and you can afford it, just sell there and buy where you want.

[temeculaguy]

I do not dispute any of your assertions phaster, just trying to correct brian’s comment where he said the conservative court will likely take the case. He was missing the point as to why there were recent posts because the news of the day was they already reviewed and declined to take up the case. As a follower of scotus but not the city’s pension I was trying to point out and give an analogy that brian’s comment was akin to saying that team X will lose the game because of y, when in fact the game ended an hour ago and they won. And as a younger man I would have challenged him with a wager, seeing that he was predicting the outcome of something that already happened and the result was the opposite of what he predicted.

[temeculaguy]

I think SCOTUS denied it today, thus the lower court ruling stands. BG referenced that, I think Phaster did to (kinda telling brian). On national issues a new case could come forward in the future, but this was a unique local case, thus the refusal upholding the lower courts ruling makes it case law. So there’s no hope scotus will ever take it since they only see retreads from other jurisdictions with different circumstances, even of slight. However your statement about the new conservative court taking the case would have given me a fantastic opportunity to take a wager from you but that would be about as unethical as betting on the superbowl an hour after it ended with someone who didn’t watch it. Age is a curse, 20 years ago I would have offered that bet.

[temeculaguy]

First off, bless your heart, I remember you from 2007 and this is housing related. Also, thank you for keeping your screen name.

Secondly as I remember, we gave you lots of advice back then and you didn’t take it.

But it was fun reading the old posts

https://www.piggington.com/harveston_down_the_drain

You are older and wiser, perhaps the advice will resonate now. You caught the falling knife due to spousal pressure and regretted it within a year. But looks like you hung in there and won anyways.

I’m with the others, I don’t see a nominal fall in prices in SD, but I do see an inflation adjusted correction. What AN said is mathematical support for this, the ratios aren’t out of whack like they once were in many parts of SD and inventories support his theory as well, plus there is no shadow inventory these days.

If you can afford it, just sell in Temecula and buy in SD. Just know your housing dollar stretches less in that direction than someone going the opposite direction. If you can sell and live super cheap, with family like someone mentioned, then you might be able to time the market. But odds are your rent in SD will cost more than your mortgage in Temecula, so if you are not saving now it will be worse with that move and you will end up eating your profit. Sell and rent worked great in 2006, I’m just not seeing the same math today. I am glad to see you are still with the same wife, her wants and your desire to fulfill them were your downfall last time, but wives are worth it. Reminds me of Michael Dell’s high school teacher who invested the money he saved for a new wedding ring for his wife when dell was just starting. He saved to buy a better ring for his wife who married him when he was poor but invested it in dell at the beginning when ot was in a garage. Once it was worth something he sold half of his interest and bought her a 7k ring( his original investment), leaving the remaining investment in the company which ended up being worth some crazy number like 100 mil. So he reminds his wife daily that he hopes she likes her 100 million dollar ring because that is what he lost because she had to have it right then. I made up the numbers from memory so apologies in advance of they are wrong but the sentiment is the same. But again, they are worth it.

[Author]

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