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February 2, 2022 at 11:25 AM in reply to: San Diego drastically outperforms Bay and LA on rents #823832February 2, 2022 at 9:49 AM in reply to: San Diego drastically outperforms Bay and LA on rents #823830
svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]
Pretty amazing to see what’s become of our little Navy town over the past two decades. Pretty humbling to be in the company we are in[/quote]I stumbled across this the other day. Amazing indeed.
“UC San Diego ranked sixth nationally in research spending in fiscal 2020, outperforming such better-known schools as UCLA, Harvard and Stanford, according to newly released figures from the National Science Foundation.
The La Jolla campus spent $1.4 billion on research and development, more than half of which went to the health sciences, including money devoted to helping develop and test vaccines and drugs to fight COVID-19.
Four California schools — UCSD, UCLA, UC San Francisco, and Stanford — finished in the top 10. No other state had more than one school in that elite bracket.”
svelteParticipantYou’re right! I do love it! I’m gonna steal it!!!!
And I’m very sorry to hear about your gf. Thank you for keeping her memory alive.
svelteParticipantFun day!
svelteParticipant[quote=XBoxBoy]This thread just keeps on being one of the most interesting in a long time. To see all the pessimism and the cynicism that’s put out here is fascinating. Mind you I have no idea if now is a good time to be pessimistic or optimistic. All I know is that I don’t know and neither does anyone else on this thread. It’s just raw biases on display. And to me, that’s fascinating to watch.
And oh yeah, in addition to pessimism there’s a healthy dose of suspicion of conspiracies. Human nature clearly on display here if you care to see it.[/quote]
Correct none of knows exactly what is about to happen and neither do the “experts”. And yes our opinions are based on our past experiences which in turn give us our biases.
I participate in this thread (and probably others do as well) because I have a significant portion of my wealth wrapped up in investments of all kinds. While I’m not going to make an “all in” bet as the original poster recommended, I may make slight course adjustments based on the thoughts expressed here. I haven’t yet, but I might in the future.
If you use this thread for entertainment, more power to ya!
svelteParticipantBrutal out there this morning! SP500 down 2.3% and we’re only an hour in! Could find some buyers as the day goes on, but I bet a lot of newer investors might become rattled as this will be their first time seeing days and days of declines.
svelteParticipant[quote=deadzone]
Just realized the stock market is already starting to collapse (tech stocks for sure) and the Fed hasn’t even started tapering or raised interest rates one basis point.
[/quote]This often happens – the market reacts to the news and not the actual event. By the time the event happens, the market has already adjusted.
[quote=deadzone]
I honestly think they will (and have no choice) to let the stock market crash pretty significantly. [/quote]I agree stock market will have to come down. Question is what is “significantly”? 10%? 20%? 30%?
Somewhere between 10 and 20 percent sounds about right to me, but then I’m no expert.
svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]
When this thread started the S&P was at 3000. Even with a 5% pullback the last few weeks it’s still 50% above June 2020. Another 10% drop would not even scratch the surface of getting us close to even from there let alone a major crash from that level. Now with the benefit of hindsight it was one of the worst calls ever on this site.[/quote]Yikes! This thread did start in June 2020! For some reason I thought it was June 2021. Yeah SP500 is waaay up since June 2020….it’ll take some major event to ever see 3000 again.
svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]
Stocks are responding to higher interest rates right now. Its earning season and lets see what happens. The bears have been wanting a pullback and are pushing what levers they have. not gonna say market will come storming back but I think this sell off will prove to be overdone and short lived
What Im seeing is massive pent up demand that was not satisfied last year with new demand piling on top. Buckle up![/quote]
I just can’t imagine home prices going much higher. We shall see. WSJ said that the two largest insurers of expensive homes in CA (Chubb and AIG) are scaling back and dropping customers. They said replacement policies through other entities are costing 3 to 5 times the prior year’s cost. The article said typical homes over $10M often pay $20-40K per year and homes north of $30M pay over $100K. It is not clear if those are the old annual costs or the new annual costs.
As for the stock market, it probably won’t crash but we will probably see a correction (drop of at least 10%), not only due to rising interest rates but also due to massive valuations on companies that have never made a profit. Even the WSJ says that investors are getting real and pulling out of unproven companies. That is overdue.
That being said, if we just see a correction of 10%, that would only put the market back where it was when this “Sell” thread started which would make the prediction basically meaningless. To make it an accurate prediction, a much bigger drop would be needed.
svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over[/quote]
That’s real estate. The original post was about the stock market.
What you could be seeing right now is either people moving $$ out of stock and into hard assets like homes, or perhaps people rushing to beat the rate hikes. Also, home prices are usually sticky on the way down so they’ll be a trailing indicator.
But the stock market could be in a momentary blip. It could return skyward tomorrow. Who knows.
svelteParticipant[quote=davelj][quote=svelte]
To really be making an insightful prediction, one would need to add a time frame “in the next 6 months…”[/quote]
I agree. Although this is not the time frame anyone would like from a prediction, I’ll say before the end of 2021 or it’s unlikely to pass. My crystal ball is generally a bit hazy.[/quote]
You may have hit the demarcation point on the nose.
Time will tell.
svelteParticipant[quote=plm][quote=Coronita][quote=plm]By cashing out my trading account, I meant doing it slowly not all at once, first 80K in long term capital gains is tax free each year. And even if I need more each year, its only taxed at 15 percent. Now if only the plan for CA free health care passes, my expenses will drop considerably.[/quote]
“I retired at 50, went back to work at 53, then had a major medical issue that left me unemployed – ‘There’s no such thing as a safe amount of money’ for retirement”[/quote]
Not much you can do to prevent major medical issues. But not going back to the office and getting exposed to Covid and retiring so you have time to exercise again actually makes more sense to avoid medical issues.[/quote]
Find a job where you work from home. Still getting paid and building up retirement account, not exposed to COVID, and you should still have time to exercise given that you’re not commuting.
“Not much you can do to prevent major medical issues.”
Which goes back to our point: make as much money as you can before a major medical issue hits because after that your earning potential is probably severely impacted.If the person in the article above retired at 50 and went back to work at 53, then it sounds like they needed the money and severely miscalculated how long their money would last when retiring at 50. Severely.
Which goes back to my other point – it is folly to think anyone can project out 40 years with any degree of accuracy. Perhaps if you have millions in stocks or rental property you should be OK, but most people don’t have that.
svelteParticipant[quote=Escoguy]On balance, I’d sell one 2.3M home and buy two for 1.2M.
Then you can have a place to live or two rentals.I highly doubt you will get twice the rent for one.
Then you have more options: i.e. you can live one again or sell it.
Not all choices are black and white.[/quote]
I like it!
svelteParticipant[quote=Coronita]
I’ve been running my F.I.R.E. calculators as of the late….Just in case.[/quote]lol, yeah I wonder how many FIRE folks are getting a little frightened right now with inflation taking off. Some of them may have used questionable assumptions.
I still think it is folly for a 30- or 40- something to think they can project out 40 to 50 years. The world changes fast!
svelteParticipantGreat advice on here from sdr, scaredy, coronita and others.
Some other thoughts that should be factored in:
1. My father always said that retirees are in consensus that one should not jump into something with both feet. Instead, they recommend renting your house out and trying the new area first. You might just find you miss San Diego more than you thought you would.
2. You can pass the house through to your daughter once you die with a much higher limit than 500K…that might be a thought to avoid taxes…and in the meantime you can rent than thing out for several thousand a month and basically not have to worry about a job ever again if you don’t want to.
3. I would think long and hard about jumping out of engineering. You’ll work just as hard, worry just as much, and have just as little free time in basically any other career you choose…and do it for much less money. (scaredy said this much better than I did!) My best friend in college did that, he quit his Silly Valley sw job to become an artist. I reminded him they are actually called “starving artists”. He has learned that lesson the hard way and now his software skills are dated.
4. Flu and I have talked about this before – one really has only so many years until they really can’t work any more…health issues, etc. While you can still earn great income, do you really want to call it quits? I get maybe scaling back so you have more free time, but I would be cautious about changing too much all at once.Just my two cents.
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