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[quote=The-Shoveler]
We will need to do our own dirty jobs, environmentally unfriendly mining/manufacturing instead of getting the Chinese do it for us so we can look all green and everything.[/quote]

lol. Have you read the new study that disses ethanol? They have to really stretch to consider it environmentally bad!

Yet I bet the study on EVs glosses over similar evils.

Yeah we as a people are very fond of rose-colored glasses.

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[quote=scaredyclassic]What will it take to alarm the markets? In a way, isn’t this more concerning than 9/11? [/quote]

I’ve been wondering the same thing. That this invasion has barely put a dent in the market is, to me, a sure sign of market euphoria.

This is all going to end badly, not sure how or when but I can sure feel it coming.

Buckle up!

[quote=scaredyclassic]On the bright side, if the world ends, at least I don’t have to deal with finishing this damned kitchen remodel. [/quote]

lol I hear ya! We have some horror stories from our kitchen remodel over a decade and a half ago. We’ve recently been inching towards considering another house remodel including kitch but we get about three sentences in, remember all the misery involved and decide our house is just fine as-is. We don’t say that verbally but the silence that ends the conversation is evidence enough we’re both thinking it. And think of all the time and money we’re saving!

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This may be another factor that keeps housing prices strong in cities. Rural and even some suburbs are seeing insurance companies drop polices to cut their risk. I’ve heard anecdotally a few friends with rural homes and even one suburban home having insurance problems.

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It is all going to come down to whether the worker shortage continues.

If it does, then remote work will continue to be strong. it is a no-cost perk companies can provide to entice people they interview. And companies are not going to force their employees back to the office if those employees know the next company over will allow them to work remotely.

If the economy slides so much that layoffs are needed, well remote workers are likely to be in a worse position than in-office workers and may well be among those let go.

Note: since a significant portion of workers who disappeared during the pandemic were older workers who retired, I’m betting the worker shortage continues in the near term. Long term (1 year or more out) who knows.

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[quote=scaredyclassic]

I’m about halfway in the book, and it has a lot of great insight.

But the better short read is THE DEATH OF IVAN ILYICH. 53 pages long, perfect, about a lawyer who suddenly discovers he’s dying. Just spot on. And only 53 pps. I absolutely love this little novella. I especially laugh at the opening, when his colleague buddies first learn of his death, and each one is secretly thinking how this will affect their place in a line of promotions.[/quote]

I am reading “2 Years Before The Mast” right now. About halfway done. One of the best books I’ve ever read.

It is a true story written by a college student who takes time off in 1835 to become a sailor on a merchant ship and takes a trip from Boston, around the cape to the tiny cities at the bays on the west coast of North America – including San Diego. He gives very detailed descriptions of the people, customs, and environment he finds on the west coast, as well as aboard the ship. Sailors bunk before the mast (thus the title) and it was to be a two-year round trip back to Boston. It is fascinating. Excellent read!

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This took me 5 minutes to find. Model match sales on the same street
2007 – $575K
2009 – $440K

That almost a 25% haircut and I probably didn’t find homes that sold at the absolute top and absolute bottom so the max drop 2007-2009 probably approached 30% in that neighborhood.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Im not saying prices didnt go down, we all know they did. But the stats are heavily skewed by a changing mix that make it look far more sever than what actually happened on the streets.[/quote]

Home prices did drop drastically from 2007 to 2009 no matter how realtors want to spin it! I know talking about that will lose realtors a few home sales right now since prices are again at a peak, but San Diego has seen some drastic home value declines in the not-too-distant past. And prices will drop again! It may be in 3 years, 5 years, 10 years or more, but prices will certainly drop again at some point. A 30-40% drop is probably a once-in-a-lifetime event, but there will be other significant drops.

And the op on this thread was just dead wrong. Dead wrong.

[img_assist|nid=27518|title=Model Match 2007-2009 Price Decline|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=260]

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What color is the sky in your Realtor world?

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[quote=sdrealtor]The markets did not collapse. Nicer parts of SD went down just over 20%. He said at peak but fine to but if you’re gonna live in it long term. 15 years later prices are double what they were in 07. The 50% decline was in low end and skewed because it was heavily weighted toward distressed sales. [/quote]

So you’ve just:
a) chosen a submarket (“nicer parts”) to bolster your position instead of the overall market, and
b) given a reason why what I said is correct (“distressed sales”)

His original post:
[quote=scruffydog]
Real Estate

Minimal RE downturn in CA is limited to areas where there was land to build new houses: ie San Diego, Sacramento, and Riverside county areas.
[/quote]

He said there would be minimal RE downturn in San Diego. Clearly without stuttering.

(sorry I posted the condo chart in last post, meant to show detached houses)

The median house price dropped from $517K in Nov 2005 to $280K in Jan 2009!!

And the price per SF dropped well over 40%!!

Neither of those numbers are a “minimal RE downturn”, sorry. Not buying it.

[img_assist|nid=27515|title=2007 Housing Crash Data|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=695]

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[quote=sdrealtor][quote=scruffydog]I did not state that everyone should run out and buy real estate today – unless you love the property and are going to live in it awhile. I’m guessing we are at a cycle peak – prices will be flat for awhile. What I am trying to convey is that the market will NOT collapse as many of you want. The economy and most importantly the job market remain very healthy and wishing it were not so will not change reality.[/quote]

Welcome back Old Dog! Im gonna have to go back and read through the whole thing when time permits. Time only gets kinder to the old dog! Within 2 years of his post the market had pretty much bottomed and turned in 4. [/quote]

Totally flabbergasted by this statement. Even in the passage you quote scruffy said that the market will NOT collapse – yet it did! When he made the statement (July 2007) we were at a market peak and within two years (Mar 2009) it went down almost 50%! He said prices would remain flat! How can you say his prediction was right?

[img_assist|nid=27514|title=San Diego Home Prices By Year|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=304]

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Well you learn something even from bad decisions…if you take the time to analyze why it was bad.

The trick is to learn to avoid the bad decisions as much as possible, but there are going to be some. just no way around it.

In the rear-view mirror, most of my bad decision were worth the pain. Though if I could start my life over again with the knowledge I have now, I certainly would side-step each of them!

There are two decisions that really need to be right in life: who you marry and what you do for a living. I think I got both of those right.

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[quote=Coronita]Work. Because I’m PTO interviewing for another company today. Of I get it I’ll give current employer the option to match and a few other things I want them to change. And if the don’t, oh well… :)[/quote]

I hear ya. So tired of watching companies make the same stupid mistakes. It doesn’t affect me so bad when I watch other companies do it, but when it is a company I work for it kinda gets under my skin.

When/if I decide I’ve had enough, not sure if I’ll find another job or just pack it in. I could do either at this point. Would definitely be better off financially if I waited a bit, but I’d be just fine either way.

Just signed up for a US Social Security login today. That tells you I’m starting to run the numbers! SS will be a pretty minor part of the puzzle and is a bit in the future anyway, but it is still nice to have the complete picture.

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Truth.

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[quote=scaredyclassic]I’ve had colds and such but I haven’t been out sick for one day in the last 25 years to miss work, till this week. Covid week. Knocked me out.
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Welcome back among the living! I’m glad you’re back, at least to the keyboard.

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[quote=scaredyclassic]I’m on day 4 of my covid adventure. Vaxxed and boosted, didn’t get too sick, but then again, I wouldn’t want to be much sicker than this.
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Yikes. We haven’t caught it yet (that we know of) but it sure feels like it is circling closer.

We know several ppl fully vaxed/boosted who got sick enough recently to know they had it.

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OK. I no longer understand this world.

Maybe its time for me to retire and spend all of my remaining days stoned and drunk in the forest or beach of my choice.

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