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sunny88
Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Now is a great time to be dollar cost averaging into the market. Many stocks are at P/E ratios not seen since Peter Lynch’s hey-day.
However, I am definitely not amping up my stock allocation or going “all in” or even in large chunks. Too many things can still go wrong to do that.
I don’t know if the stock market will pick up in 2009, 2010 or 2011, but I am betting that 10 years from now it will be largely higher than today.
[/quote]I would be extremely careful with investing in stocks right now as a lot more bad news will be coming. Once people realize that the new administration will not be able to have a solution for a quick fix the stock market will take another dive. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow goes down another 1,000 points before recovering.
Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Now is a great time to be dollar cost averaging into the market. Many stocks are at P/E ratios not seen since Peter Lynch’s hey-day.
However, I am definitely not amping up my stock allocation or going “all in” or even in large chunks. Too many things can still go wrong to do that.
I don’t know if the stock market will pick up in 2009, 2010 or 2011, but I am betting that 10 years from now it will be largely higher than today.
[/quote]I would be extremely careful with investing in stocks right now as a lot more bad news will be coming. Once people realize that the new administration will not be able to have a solution for a quick fix the stock market will take another dive. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow goes down another 1,000 points before recovering.
ParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipant[quote=SD Realtor]”I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?”
Sunny I thinkt he question is to abstract. Look, invariably every buyer I work with asks me, do I think the price they are paying for the home is “reasonable”. That is a very poor question isn’t it? It may be “reasonable” now but will more then likely be unreasonable in the future due to depreciation. Simplistic thought IMO 4S is overpriced right now.
To me, the price of a home will always be dictated by the market. If the developer has found the market price such that he can slow roll homes out to keep his costs low, yet sell phases at a pace that matches that roll out then he is good. Whether that price is “reasonable” to you or I is quote moot.
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I would like to rephrase my statement by stating that a reasonable price in my mind is a price that makes sense in the context of the duration of estimated occupancy. I.e. if you plan to stay for more than 10 years the prices are likely to recover.Participant[quote=SD Realtor]”I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?”
Sunny I thinkt he question is to abstract. Look, invariably every buyer I work with asks me, do I think the price they are paying for the home is “reasonable”. That is a very poor question isn’t it? It may be “reasonable” now but will more then likely be unreasonable in the future due to depreciation. Simplistic thought IMO 4S is overpriced right now.
To me, the price of a home will always be dictated by the market. If the developer has found the market price such that he can slow roll homes out to keep his costs low, yet sell phases at a pace that matches that roll out then he is good. Whether that price is “reasonable” to you or I is quote moot.
[/quote]
I would like to rephrase my statement by stating that a reasonable price in my mind is a price that makes sense in the context of the duration of estimated occupancy. I.e. if you plan to stay for more than 10 years the prices are likely to recover.Participant[quote=SD Realtor]”I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?”
Sunny I thinkt he question is to abstract. Look, invariably every buyer I work with asks me, do I think the price they are paying for the home is “reasonable”. That is a very poor question isn’t it? It may be “reasonable” now but will more then likely be unreasonable in the future due to depreciation. Simplistic thought IMO 4S is overpriced right now.
To me, the price of a home will always be dictated by the market. If the developer has found the market price such that he can slow roll homes out to keep his costs low, yet sell phases at a pace that matches that roll out then he is good. Whether that price is “reasonable” to you or I is quote moot.
[/quote]
I would like to rephrase my statement by stating that a reasonable price in my mind is a price that makes sense in the context of the duration of estimated occupancy. I.e. if you plan to stay for more than 10 years the prices are likely to recover.Participant[quote=SD Realtor]”I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?”
Sunny I thinkt he question is to abstract. Look, invariably every buyer I work with asks me, do I think the price they are paying for the home is “reasonable”. That is a very poor question isn’t it? It may be “reasonable” now but will more then likely be unreasonable in the future due to depreciation. Simplistic thought IMO 4S is overpriced right now.
To me, the price of a home will always be dictated by the market. If the developer has found the market price such that he can slow roll homes out to keep his costs low, yet sell phases at a pace that matches that roll out then he is good. Whether that price is “reasonable” to you or I is quote moot.
[/quote]
I would like to rephrase my statement by stating that a reasonable price in my mind is a price that makes sense in the context of the duration of estimated occupancy. I.e. if you plan to stay for more than 10 years the prices are likely to recover.Participant[quote=SD Realtor]”I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?”
Sunny I thinkt he question is to abstract. Look, invariably every buyer I work with asks me, do I think the price they are paying for the home is “reasonable”. That is a very poor question isn’t it? It may be “reasonable” now but will more then likely be unreasonable in the future due to depreciation. Simplistic thought IMO 4S is overpriced right now.
To me, the price of a home will always be dictated by the market. If the developer has found the market price such that he can slow roll homes out to keep his costs low, yet sell phases at a pace that matches that roll out then he is good. Whether that price is “reasonable” to you or I is quote moot.
[/quote]
I would like to rephrase my statement by stating that a reasonable price in my mind is a price that makes sense in the context of the duration of estimated occupancy. I.e. if you plan to stay for more than 10 years the prices are likely to recover.Participant[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]200 per sq ft which means all those homes on fieldthorn would need to dump to 300 plus, the homes selling in the low 500s now in garden gate and garden path would need to drop to the low 400s (like this one http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080075819-17055_Ralphs_Ranch_Rd_San_Diego_Ca_92127)
This one on Albert is close – http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080074848-17066_Albert_Ave_San_Diego_Ca_92127
So if you look at the builders:
Chanteclair should be 530K – 650K
Maybeck should be Mid 500s to High 600s
Maybeck has its biggest model starting at about 200 per sq ft.
I would assume there are some big incentives too (upgrades). I would ask them to pay the MR – cant hurt. [/quote]
Agreed! Given the small lots of most of these homes the fair value is around $200 per sqft. before upgrades.
Participant[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]200 per sq ft which means all those homes on fieldthorn would need to dump to 300 plus, the homes selling in the low 500s now in garden gate and garden path would need to drop to the low 400s (like this one http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080075819-17055_Ralphs_Ranch_Rd_San_Diego_Ca_92127)
This one on Albert is close – http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080074848-17066_Albert_Ave_San_Diego_Ca_92127
So if you look at the builders:
Chanteclair should be 530K – 650K
Maybeck should be Mid 500s to High 600s
Maybeck has its biggest model starting at about 200 per sq ft.
I would assume there are some big incentives too (upgrades). I would ask them to pay the MR – cant hurt. [/quote]
Agreed! Given the small lots of most of these homes the fair value is around $200 per sqft. before upgrades.
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