[stockstradr]

I’m with Chris_Scoreboard that the 770% (or 570% or whatever) profit claim might more accurately describe the percentage increase in bullshit postings in this forum since Oct ’07.!

This very thread has seen a good appreciation in the level of BS postings!

And I had better acknowledge my claim of +20% was a guess, and I have to admit I didn’t pull off that 20% appreciation soley on trades that were all round-tripped within in the last three weeks.

For example, let’s look at one collection of puts against the NASDAQ, and S&P500, that I collected over the last 12 months. I just sold all those to close.

I just now put those into the spreadsheet and confirmed an aggregate net (including commission cost in/out) gain of 21% across all those closed option trades. How much was initially invested on that set of puts? Total initial cost was $24,437, which frankly is a lot of options for a light trader like me to be buying. Obviously I consider that amount to be “throw-away” money relative to my overall retirement portfolio because when you buy options you gotta be ready to lose every cent!

My biggest mistake on that collection of puts came with two of the positions purchased too early at original cost of $5000 (JAN08 QQQ strike at 42, and 44) both of which are now totally worthless, expiring in matter of few days. If I had only broke even on those two I would have made ten grand on the original twenty-five grand, a more respectible gain. The worst part is during the low lows of March ’07, those two options were UP about 25% (on paper in my account), and I didn’t sell them. (oops!)

Frankly, I’m not proud of making 20% return on that overall collection of options (held that long) because the risk was so high relative to that return.

I’m not a trader by profession. I’m just an engineer who makes trades weekly or monthly as a hobby.

[stockstradr]

I’m with Chris_Scoreboard that the 770% (or 570% or whatever) profit claim might more accurately describe the percentage increase in bullshit postings in this forum since Oct ’07.!

This very thread has seen a good appreciation in the level of BS postings!

And I had better acknowledge my claim of +20% was a guess, and I have to admit I didn’t pull off that 20% appreciation soley on trades that were all round-tripped within in the last three weeks.

For example, let’s look at one collection of puts against the NASDAQ, and S&P500, that I collected over the last 12 months. I just sold all those to close.

I just now put those into the spreadsheet and confirmed an aggregate net (including commission cost in/out) gain of 21% across all those closed option trades. How much was initially invested on that set of puts? Total initial cost was $24,437, which frankly is a lot of options for a light trader like me to be buying. Obviously I consider that amount to be “throw-away” money relative to my overall retirement portfolio because when you buy options you gotta be ready to lose every cent!

My biggest mistake on that collection of puts came with two of the positions purchased too early at original cost of $5000 (JAN08 QQQ strike at 42, and 44) both of which are now totally worthless, expiring in matter of few days. If I had only broke even on those two I would have made ten grand on the original twenty-five grand, a more respectible gain. The worst part is during the low lows of March ’07, those two options were UP about 25% (on paper in my account), and I didn’t sell them. (oops!)

Frankly, I’m not proud of making 20% return on that overall collection of options (held that long) because the risk was so high relative to that return.

I’m not a trader by profession. I’m just an engineer who makes trades weekly or monthly as a hobby.

[stockstradr]

I’m with Chris_Scoreboard that the 770% (or 570% or whatever) profit claim might more accurately describe the percentage increase in bullshit postings in this forum since Oct ’07.!

This very thread has seen a good appreciation in the level of BS postings!

And I had better acknowledge my claim of +20% was a guess, and I have to admit I didn’t pull off that 20% appreciation soley on trades that were all round-tripped within in the last three weeks.

For example, let’s look at one collection of puts against the NASDAQ, and S&P500, that I collected over the last 12 months. I just sold all those to close.

I just now put those into the spreadsheet and confirmed an aggregate net (including commission cost in/out) gain of 21% across all those closed option trades. How much was initially invested on that set of puts? Total initial cost was $24,437, which frankly is a lot of options for a light trader like me to be buying. Obviously I consider that amount to be “throw-away” money relative to my overall retirement portfolio because when you buy options you gotta be ready to lose every cent!

My biggest mistake on that collection of puts came with two of the positions purchased too early at original cost of $5000 (JAN08 QQQ strike at 42, and 44) both of which are now totally worthless, expiring in matter of few days. If I had only broke even on those two I would have made ten grand on the original twenty-five grand, a more respectible gain. The worst part is during the low lows of March ’07, those two options were UP about 25% (on paper in my account), and I didn’t sell them. (oops!)

Frankly, I’m not proud of making 20% return on that overall collection of options (held that long) because the risk was so high relative to that return.

I’m not a trader by profession. I’m just an engineer who makes trades weekly or monthly as a hobby.

[stockstradr]

LookoutBelow,

convince us you are more than hot air (“im up almost 770%”)

(Oh, yeah, ou were up 770% but now you edited your post AGAIN in the last minute lowering your still absurd claim to 570%)

Plainly state your predictions short, and long, for :
oil
indexes
currency
recession

If you’re good, you won’t be afraid to prove it on here with your advance predictions.

[stockstradr]

LookoutBelow,

convince us you are more than hot air (“im up almost 770%”)

(Oh, yeah, ou were up 770% but now you edited your post AGAIN in the last minute lowering your still absurd claim to 570%)

Plainly state your predictions short, and long, for :
oil
indexes
currency
recession

If you’re good, you won’t be afraid to prove it on here with your advance predictions.

[stockstradr]

LookoutBelow,

convince us you are more than hot air (“im up almost 770%”)

(Oh, yeah, ou were up 770% but now you edited your post AGAIN in the last minute lowering your still absurd claim to 570%)

Plainly state your predictions short, and long, for :
oil
indexes
currency
recession

If you’re good, you won’t be afraid to prove it on here with your advance predictions.

[stockstradr]

LookoutBelow,

convince us you are more than hot air (“im up almost 770%”)

(Oh, yeah, ou were up 770% but now you edited your post AGAIN in the last minute lowering your still absurd claim to 570%)

Plainly state your predictions short, and long, for :
oil
indexes
currency
recession

If you’re good, you won’t be afraid to prove it on here with your advance predictions.

[stockstradr]

LookoutBelow,

convince us you are more than hot air (“im up almost 770%”)

(Oh, yeah, ou were up 770% but now you edited your post AGAIN in the last minute lowering your still absurd claim to 570%)

Plainly state your predictions short, and long, for :
oil
indexes
currency
recession

If you’re good, you won’t be afraid to prove it on here with your advance predictions.

[stockstradr]

I see that gold_dredger_phd also sees what I see regards price of oil (short-term)

I completely agree with his comments, and others on here that realize oil is speculatively OVERpriced given we are headed ito a fierce recession.

When we see oil sink to $50-$60 / bbl within 24 months then that will be the time to BUY.

[stockstradr]

I see that gold_dredger_phd also sees what I see regards price of oil (short-term)

I completely agree with his comments, and others on here that realize oil is speculatively OVERpriced given we are headed ito a fierce recession.

When we see oil sink to $50-$60 / bbl within 24 months then that will be the time to BUY.

[stockstradr]

I see that gold_dredger_phd also sees what I see regards price of oil (short-term)

I completely agree with his comments, and others on here that realize oil is speculatively OVERpriced given we are headed ito a fierce recession.

When we see oil sink to $50-$60 / bbl within 24 months then that will be the time to BUY.

[stockstradr]

I see that gold_dredger_phd also sees what I see regards price of oil (short-term)

I completely agree with his comments, and others on here that realize oil is speculatively OVERpriced given we are headed ito a fierce recession.

When we see oil sink to $50-$60 / bbl within 24 months then that will be the time to BUY.

[stockstradr]

I see that gold_dredger_phd also sees what I see regards price of oil (short-term)

I completely agree with his comments, and others on here that realize oil is speculatively OVERpriced given we are headed ito a fierce recession.

When we see oil sink to $50-$60 / bbl within 24 months then that will be the time to BUY.

[stockstradr]

Well, I tossed in the towel, deciding I don’t know where markets are headed during the next few weeks ahead of the expected rate drop.

So sold the long position I picked up yesterday in the ETF “SSO”

I have dumped my gold yesterday and today, seeing this pullback continuing in gold

I’m now entirely in cash, except for that short position against the oil sector I’m holding with the ETF “DUG.” That strategy is now moving very fast in my favor with the oil price having come down off the $100 mark, and inventories are rising. Several weeks ago, I was down -16% on that bet, but that negative has now turned slightly positive.

So the only SHORT-TERM bet I’m confident on is shorting oil. Demand is already dropping as this recession rolls in like a dark cloud. Yet I emphasize that long-term I see oil headed UP.

I’m in a wait-and-see holding pattern regards the indices, because my instincts are for a short-term rise ~5% ahead of the fed funds rate cut, but I’m only guessing not willing (anymore) to bet my money on it. However, as soon as I see these indexes pop up ~5% then I’ll buy short positions again on the indexes. I’m expecting that this deep recession will take the markets down eventually this year to declines another 20% lower than present values!

Summary for 2008: I made money on gold, shorting the S&P 500, puts on the NASDAQ. I’m now flat on the bet against oil. Since late Dec 2007 to now, net I’m up 20% over my portfolio. I can’t complain about that.

[stockstradr]

Well, I tossed in the towel, deciding I don’t know where markets are headed during the next few weeks ahead of the expected rate drop.

So sold the long position I picked up yesterday in the ETF “SSO”

I have dumped my gold yesterday and today, seeing this pullback continuing in gold

I’m now entirely in cash, except for that short position against the oil sector I’m holding with the ETF “DUG.” That strategy is now moving very fast in my favor with the oil price having come down off the $100 mark, and inventories are rising. Several weeks ago, I was down -16% on that bet, but that negative has now turned slightly positive.

So the only SHORT-TERM bet I’m confident on is shorting oil. Demand is already dropping as this recession rolls in like a dark cloud. Yet I emphasize that long-term I see oil headed UP.

I’m in a wait-and-see holding pattern regards the indices, because my instincts are for a short-term rise ~5% ahead of the fed funds rate cut, but I’m only guessing not willing (anymore) to bet my money on it. However, as soon as I see these indexes pop up ~5% then I’ll buy short positions again on the indexes. I’m expecting that this deep recession will take the markets down eventually this year to declines another 20% lower than present values!

Summary for 2008: I made money on gold, shorting the S&P 500, puts on the NASDAQ. I’m now flat on the bet against oil. Since late Dec 2007 to now, net I’m up 20% over my portfolio. I can’t complain about that.

[Author]

Posts