[stockstradr]

Holding other things constant, yes, months-of-inventory is a good sign of where real estate markets are headed.

But other things are NOT constant, so I don’t buy your implied assumption that flattening inventory means the market is bottoming.

This is why Rich looks at additional factors, and posts data, for example, on the RATIO of inventory that is must-sell, bank-owned.

while inventory may have held flat, that very important ratio has NOT held flat. When a market transitions into one dominated with bank owned MUST SELL inventory, that has a dramatic impact on pricing.

[stockstradr]

Holding other things constant, yes, months-of-inventory is a good sign of where real estate markets are headed.

But other things are NOT constant, so I don’t buy your implied assumption that flattening inventory means the market is bottoming.

This is why Rich looks at additional factors, and posts data, for example, on the RATIO of inventory that is must-sell, bank-owned.

while inventory may have held flat, that very important ratio has NOT held flat. When a market transitions into one dominated with bank owned MUST SELL inventory, that has a dramatic impact on pricing.

[stockstradr]

Holding other things constant, yes, months-of-inventory is a good sign of where real estate markets are headed.

But other things are NOT constant, so I don’t buy your implied assumption that flattening inventory means the market is bottoming.

This is why Rich looks at additional factors, and posts data, for example, on the RATIO of inventory that is must-sell, bank-owned.

while inventory may have held flat, that very important ratio has NOT held flat. When a market transitions into one dominated with bank owned MUST SELL inventory, that has a dramatic impact on pricing.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Sorry, my post was overly snooty.

My post shouldn’t have suggested those who like Olive Garden have no clue about food. i also think the garlic sticks at Olive Garden are good, particularly when paid for by a business expense account. My post was more about the people who SWEAR up and down that Olive Garden and Red Lobster have absolutely exceptional, great food. I wasn’t assuming you were of that belief.

[stockstradr]

Sorry, my post was overly snooty.

My post shouldn’t have suggested those who like Olive Garden have no clue about food. i also think the garlic sticks at Olive Garden are good, particularly when paid for by a business expense account. My post was more about the people who SWEAR up and down that Olive Garden and Red Lobster have absolutely exceptional, great food. I wasn’t assuming you were of that belief.

[stockstradr]

Sorry, my post was overly snooty.

My post shouldn’t have suggested those who like Olive Garden have no clue about food. i also think the garlic sticks at Olive Garden are good, particularly when paid for by a business expense account. My post was more about the people who SWEAR up and down that Olive Garden and Red Lobster have absolutely exceptional, great food. I wasn’t assuming you were of that belief.

[stockstradr]

Sorry, my post was overly snooty.

My post shouldn’t have suggested those who like Olive Garden have no clue about food. i also think the garlic sticks at Olive Garden are good, particularly when paid for by a business expense account. My post was more about the people who SWEAR up and down that Olive Garden and Red Lobster have absolutely exceptional, great food. I wasn’t assuming you were of that belief.

[stockstradr]

Sorry, my post was overly snooty.

My post shouldn’t have suggested those who like Olive Garden have no clue about food. i also think the garlic sticks at Olive Garden are good, particularly when paid for by a business expense account. My post was more about the people who SWEAR up and down that Olive Garden and Red Lobster have absolutely exceptional, great food. I wasn’t assuming you were of that belief.

[stockstradr]

Yes, and also my theory has an implied assumption that may not hold up: wages will keep pace with inflation.

I’m not sure that future typical raises will keep pace with inflation

[stockstradr]

Yes, and also my theory has an implied assumption that may not hold up: wages will keep pace with inflation.

I’m not sure that future typical raises will keep pace with inflation

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