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stockstradr
Participant“we have a deflation problem”
About a year ago (or nine months ago, whatever) we had the Inflation or Deflation debate on Piggington. We agreed a recession was coming and the credit crunch was already evident. So people were debating on this forum if we’ll see an inflationary or deflationary environment.
I was rather made fun of for predicting inflation would dramatically accelerate. At that time few who frequent this forum were expecting Inflation would take off.
I do acknowledge the arguments of the Deflation camp are very sound arguments, well-founded in economic theory. The credit crunch, for example, is obviously a very strong deflationary shock.
Given the Inflation numbers over the last year, it is clear whose prediction was correct. We have stagflation, and it will get worse.
Participant“we have a deflation problem”
About a year ago (or nine months ago, whatever) we had the Inflation or Deflation debate on Piggington. We agreed a recession was coming and the credit crunch was already evident. So people were debating on this forum if we’ll see an inflationary or deflationary environment.
I was rather made fun of for predicting inflation would dramatically accelerate. At that time few who frequent this forum were expecting Inflation would take off.
I do acknowledge the arguments of the Deflation camp are very sound arguments, well-founded in economic theory. The credit crunch, for example, is obviously a very strong deflationary shock.
Given the Inflation numbers over the last year, it is clear whose prediction was correct. We have stagflation, and it will get worse.
September 9, 2008 at 5:16 PM in reply to: U.S. Payrolls Fell 84,000; Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.1% #268309ParticipantResponding to fat_lazy_union_worker’s post.
I also know my previous employer (Nokia) is closely watching the financial performance of their 500+ employee R&D center (seen on the right on the hill, driving north on the I15 as you pass Scripps Poway Pkwy)
If those financials don’t move into the black, I hear they will basically SHUT DOWN that R&D center (which has lost hundreds of millions now for years)
Keep in mind that’s the same R&D center that has already laid off 600+ employees in the last two years.
September 9, 2008 at 5:16 PM in reply to: U.S. Payrolls Fell 84,000; Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.1% #268533ParticipantResponding to fat_lazy_union_worker’s post.
I also know my previous employer (Nokia) is closely watching the financial performance of their 500+ employee R&D center (seen on the right on the hill, driving north on the I15 as you pass Scripps Poway Pkwy)
If those financials don’t move into the black, I hear they will basically SHUT DOWN that R&D center (which has lost hundreds of millions now for years)
Keep in mind that’s the same R&D center that has already laid off 600+ employees in the last two years.
September 9, 2008 at 5:16 PM in reply to: U.S. Payrolls Fell 84,000; Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.1% #268547ParticipantResponding to fat_lazy_union_worker’s post.
I also know my previous employer (Nokia) is closely watching the financial performance of their 500+ employee R&D center (seen on the right on the hill, driving north on the I15 as you pass Scripps Poway Pkwy)
If those financials don’t move into the black, I hear they will basically SHUT DOWN that R&D center (which has lost hundreds of millions now for years)
Keep in mind that’s the same R&D center that has already laid off 600+ employees in the last two years.
September 9, 2008 at 5:16 PM in reply to: U.S. Payrolls Fell 84,000; Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.1% #268591ParticipantResponding to fat_lazy_union_worker’s post.
I also know my previous employer (Nokia) is closely watching the financial performance of their 500+ employee R&D center (seen on the right on the hill, driving north on the I15 as you pass Scripps Poway Pkwy)
If those financials don’t move into the black, I hear they will basically SHUT DOWN that R&D center (which has lost hundreds of millions now for years)
Keep in mind that’s the same R&D center that has already laid off 600+ employees in the last two years.
September 9, 2008 at 5:16 PM in reply to: U.S. Payrolls Fell 84,000; Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.1% #268621ParticipantResponding to fat_lazy_union_worker’s post.
I also know my previous employer (Nokia) is closely watching the financial performance of their 500+ employee R&D center (seen on the right on the hill, driving north on the I15 as you pass Scripps Poway Pkwy)
If those financials don’t move into the black, I hear they will basically SHUT DOWN that R&D center (which has lost hundreds of millions now for years)
Keep in mind that’s the same R&D center that has already laid off 600+ employees in the last two years.
ParticipantMy thoughts on the dollar?
Some things ARE debatable by intelligent informed economic experts. Where will oil prices be next month? Who knows!
Yet, other things are so very certain; they are not really in question and not really debatable. The long-term direction of the US dollar is probably not debatable.
The US dollar’s value is doomed to fall dramatically over the long-term (10+ years). The reason is that the chips (economic conditions) are so stacked up against the dollar; it is very difficult to imagine this will reverse itself.
The US government is now facing a debt load for which there is only ONE inevitable course of action: inflating our way out of debt, meaning a long-term devaluation of the dollar.
This certain dramatic decline of the dollar (over the next ten years, and beyond) is fundamental cornerstone of my entire investment strategy. We own a home in China, but not the USA. We have our cash in Chinese banks. We own lots of gold here in the USA. We are planning a move to live and work in China (to be paid Yuan instead of dollars). We would have moved to China LAST MONTH but my wife was not ready to move back, even though I got a fantastic job offer to work in Beijing. Pissed me off to turn down that job offer. I could write ten pages on this subject of dollar decline, but don’t have the time.
I am confident that within ten years, the dollar will have declined by over 50% relative to a basket of representative currencies such as the Yuan and EURO. However, my instinct is that the actual dollar decline (within ten years) could be more on the order of 90%, particularly relative to the Yuan.
ParticipantMy thoughts on the dollar?
Some things ARE debatable by intelligent informed economic experts. Where will oil prices be next month? Who knows!
Yet, other things are so very certain; they are not really in question and not really debatable. The long-term direction of the US dollar is probably not debatable.
The US dollar’s value is doomed to fall dramatically over the long-term (10+ years). The reason is that the chips (economic conditions) are so stacked up against the dollar; it is very difficult to imagine this will reverse itself.
The US government is now facing a debt load for which there is only ONE inevitable course of action: inflating our way out of debt, meaning a long-term devaluation of the dollar.
This certain dramatic decline of the dollar (over the next ten years, and beyond) is fundamental cornerstone of my entire investment strategy. We own a home in China, but not the USA. We have our cash in Chinese banks. We own lots of gold here in the USA. We are planning a move to live and work in China (to be paid Yuan instead of dollars). We would have moved to China LAST MONTH but my wife was not ready to move back, even though I got a fantastic job offer to work in Beijing. Pissed me off to turn down that job offer. I could write ten pages on this subject of dollar decline, but don’t have the time.
I am confident that within ten years, the dollar will have declined by over 50% relative to a basket of representative currencies such as the Yuan and EURO. However, my instinct is that the actual dollar decline (within ten years) could be more on the order of 90%, particularly relative to the Yuan.
ParticipantMy thoughts on the dollar?
Some things ARE debatable by intelligent informed economic experts. Where will oil prices be next month? Who knows!
Yet, other things are so very certain; they are not really in question and not really debatable. The long-term direction of the US dollar is probably not debatable.
The US dollar’s value is doomed to fall dramatically over the long-term (10+ years). The reason is that the chips (economic conditions) are so stacked up against the dollar; it is very difficult to imagine this will reverse itself.
The US government is now facing a debt load for which there is only ONE inevitable course of action: inflating our way out of debt, meaning a long-term devaluation of the dollar.
This certain dramatic decline of the dollar (over the next ten years, and beyond) is fundamental cornerstone of my entire investment strategy. We own a home in China, but not the USA. We have our cash in Chinese banks. We own lots of gold here in the USA. We are planning a move to live and work in China (to be paid Yuan instead of dollars). We would have moved to China LAST MONTH but my wife was not ready to move back, even though I got a fantastic job offer to work in Beijing. Pissed me off to turn down that job offer. I could write ten pages on this subject of dollar decline, but don’t have the time.
I am confident that within ten years, the dollar will have declined by over 50% relative to a basket of representative currencies such as the Yuan and EURO. However, my instinct is that the actual dollar decline (within ten years) could be more on the order of 90%, particularly relative to the Yuan.
ParticipantMy thoughts on the dollar?
Some things ARE debatable by intelligent informed economic experts. Where will oil prices be next month? Who knows!
Yet, other things are so very certain; they are not really in question and not really debatable. The long-term direction of the US dollar is probably not debatable.
The US dollar’s value is doomed to fall dramatically over the long-term (10+ years). The reason is that the chips (economic conditions) are so stacked up against the dollar; it is very difficult to imagine this will reverse itself.
The US government is now facing a debt load for which there is only ONE inevitable course of action: inflating our way out of debt, meaning a long-term devaluation of the dollar.
This certain dramatic decline of the dollar (over the next ten years, and beyond) is fundamental cornerstone of my entire investment strategy. We own a home in China, but not the USA. We have our cash in Chinese banks. We own lots of gold here in the USA. We are planning a move to live and work in China (to be paid Yuan instead of dollars). We would have moved to China LAST MONTH but my wife was not ready to move back, even though I got a fantastic job offer to work in Beijing. Pissed me off to turn down that job offer. I could write ten pages on this subject of dollar decline, but don’t have the time.
I am confident that within ten years, the dollar will have declined by over 50% relative to a basket of representative currencies such as the Yuan and EURO. However, my instinct is that the actual dollar decline (within ten years) could be more on the order of 90%, particularly relative to the Yuan.
ParticipantMy thoughts on the dollar?
Some things ARE debatable by intelligent informed economic experts. Where will oil prices be next month? Who knows!
Yet, other things are so very certain; they are not really in question and not really debatable. The long-term direction of the US dollar is probably not debatable.
The US dollar’s value is doomed to fall dramatically over the long-term (10+ years). The reason is that the chips (economic conditions) are so stacked up against the dollar; it is very difficult to imagine this will reverse itself.
The US government is now facing a debt load for which there is only ONE inevitable course of action: inflating our way out of debt, meaning a long-term devaluation of the dollar.
This certain dramatic decline of the dollar (over the next ten years, and beyond) is fundamental cornerstone of my entire investment strategy. We own a home in China, but not the USA. We have our cash in Chinese banks. We own lots of gold here in the USA. We are planning a move to live and work in China (to be paid Yuan instead of dollars). We would have moved to China LAST MONTH but my wife was not ready to move back, even though I got a fantastic job offer to work in Beijing. Pissed me off to turn down that job offer. I could write ten pages on this subject of dollar decline, but don’t have the time.
I am confident that within ten years, the dollar will have declined by over 50% relative to a basket of representative currencies such as the Yuan and EURO. However, my instinct is that the actual dollar decline (within ten years) could be more on the order of 90%, particularly relative to the Yuan.
ParticipantI smell the dollar getting a little smack outta this. Ouch. Thanks uncle sam. We’re saved.
I guess we can count on the printing machine to get us back into inflation. But I think it’s going to just buy us stagflation. Devaluing the US$, while the economy just sits there. Like a deer in the headlights.I say the above post is brilliant. I’ve been anticipating this bailout now for a year, and the impact I anticipate is described by above post.
ParticipantI smell the dollar getting a little smack outta this. Ouch. Thanks uncle sam. We’re saved.
I guess we can count on the printing machine to get us back into inflation. But I think it’s going to just buy us stagflation. Devaluing the US$, while the economy just sits there. Like a deer in the headlights.I say the above post is brilliant. I’ve been anticipating this bailout now for a year, and the impact I anticipate is described by above post.
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