[stockstradr]

I scan this thread, and I cannot help but laugh.

I cannot believe how many of you still desperately cling to idea that inflation is looming. How many damn economic data points all confirming deflation is it gonna take to turn you people?

Many of you are starting to look pathetic.

Give up the ghost. Deflation is here and the resulting response (to deepening deflation) of the FOMC and the financial markets is predictable.

Swallow your pride (and your obsession with inflation), and then join me in making all this money. Good grief, the yield on the 30-year T-bond has dropped nearly a hundred basis points since early April. You think that’s a sign of inflation? No, that’s a sign i’m making loads of money betting on deflation by holding long bond funds.

Here is a gem for yah:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

That is your Cliffs Notes on what happens next.

Gold is next to fall. Gold is gonna get hammered. And if it doesn’t fall by natural market forces, our government is gonna make it fall in price by unnatural forces.

Oh and stocks are falling and I’m leveraged short stocks. Oh, and Asia is crashing again and I’m leveraged short the China market.

Yes. It is like shooting fish in a barrel.

[stockstradr]

I scan this thread, and I cannot help but laugh.

I cannot believe how many of you still desperately cling to idea that inflation is looming. How many damn economic data points all confirming deflation is it gonna take to turn you people?

Many of you are starting to look pathetic.

Give up the ghost. Deflation is here and the resulting response (to deepening deflation) of the FOMC and the financial markets is predictable.

Swallow your pride (and your obsession with inflation), and then join me in making all this money. Good grief, the yield on the 30-year T-bond has dropped nearly a hundred basis points since early April. You think that’s a sign of inflation? No, that’s a sign i’m making loads of money betting on deflation by holding long bond funds.

Here is a gem for yah:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

That is your Cliffs Notes on what happens next.

Gold is next to fall. Gold is gonna get hammered. And if it doesn’t fall by natural market forces, our government is gonna make it fall in price by unnatural forces.

Oh and stocks are falling and I’m leveraged short stocks. Oh, and Asia is crashing again and I’m leveraged short the China market.

Yes. It is like shooting fish in a barrel.

[stockstradr]

I scan this thread, and I cannot help but laugh.

I cannot believe how many of you still desperately cling to idea that inflation is looming. How many damn economic data points all confirming deflation is it gonna take to turn you people?

Many of you are starting to look pathetic.

Give up the ghost. Deflation is here and the resulting response (to deepening deflation) of the FOMC and the financial markets is predictable.

Swallow your pride (and your obsession with inflation), and then join me in making all this money. Good grief, the yield on the 30-year T-bond has dropped nearly a hundred basis points since early April. You think that’s a sign of inflation? No, that’s a sign i’m making loads of money betting on deflation by holding long bond funds.

Here is a gem for yah:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

That is your Cliffs Notes on what happens next.

Gold is next to fall. Gold is gonna get hammered. And if it doesn’t fall by natural market forces, our government is gonna make it fall in price by unnatural forces.

Oh and stocks are falling and I’m leveraged short stocks. Oh, and Asia is crashing again and I’m leveraged short the China market.

Yes. It is like shooting fish in a barrel.

[stockstradr]

Isn’t that pretty much what they’re already doing?

Exactly!

I think the initial post (not the one quoted above) was a bit odd, given poster should realize this is already happening. Besides, it is nutz for the original post to suggest even MORE of what is basically Ponzi Scheme support of the housing market forced upon the US taxpayer.

US government is indirectly already promising to cover like 90% of newly issuing mortgages, because if homeowners default for whatever reason (such as a price decline) then the US government (= you and me) will have to cover the bail out of those billions of mortgages that have been insured.

Oh, and YES, it is inevitable this will all end up with the US taxpayers covering the cost, but there isn’t enough tax revenue coming in to cover the cost of default of all those US government insured mortgages – which leads us again to why the US dollar is DOOMED. They will have to print huge amounts of dollars.

[stockstradr]

Isn’t that pretty much what they’re already doing?

Exactly!

I think the initial post (not the one quoted above) was a bit odd, given poster should realize this is already happening. Besides, it is nutz for the original post to suggest even MORE of what is basically Ponzi Scheme support of the housing market forced upon the US taxpayer.

US government is indirectly already promising to cover like 90% of newly issuing mortgages, because if homeowners default for whatever reason (such as a price decline) then the US government (= you and me) will have to cover the bail out of those billions of mortgages that have been insured.

Oh, and YES, it is inevitable this will all end up with the US taxpayers covering the cost, but there isn’t enough tax revenue coming in to cover the cost of default of all those US government insured mortgages – which leads us again to why the US dollar is DOOMED. They will have to print huge amounts of dollars.

[stockstradr]

Isn’t that pretty much what they’re already doing?

Exactly!

I think the initial post (not the one quoted above) was a bit odd, given poster should realize this is already happening. Besides, it is nutz for the original post to suggest even MORE of what is basically Ponzi Scheme support of the housing market forced upon the US taxpayer.

US government is indirectly already promising to cover like 90% of newly issuing mortgages, because if homeowners default for whatever reason (such as a price decline) then the US government (= you and me) will have to cover the bail out of those billions of mortgages that have been insured.

Oh, and YES, it is inevitable this will all end up with the US taxpayers covering the cost, but there isn’t enough tax revenue coming in to cover the cost of default of all those US government insured mortgages – which leads us again to why the US dollar is DOOMED. They will have to print huge amounts of dollars.

[stockstradr]

Isn’t that pretty much what they’re already doing?

Exactly!

I think the initial post (not the one quoted above) was a bit odd, given poster should realize this is already happening. Besides, it is nutz for the original post to suggest even MORE of what is basically Ponzi Scheme support of the housing market forced upon the US taxpayer.

US government is indirectly already promising to cover like 90% of newly issuing mortgages, because if homeowners default for whatever reason (such as a price decline) then the US government (= you and me) will have to cover the bail out of those billions of mortgages that have been insured.

Oh, and YES, it is inevitable this will all end up with the US taxpayers covering the cost, but there isn’t enough tax revenue coming in to cover the cost of default of all those US government insured mortgages – which leads us again to why the US dollar is DOOMED. They will have to print huge amounts of dollars.

[stockstradr]

Isn’t that pretty much what they’re already doing?

Exactly!

I think the initial post (not the one quoted above) was a bit odd, given poster should realize this is already happening. Besides, it is nutz for the original post to suggest even MORE of what is basically Ponzi Scheme support of the housing market forced upon the US taxpayer.

US government is indirectly already promising to cover like 90% of newly issuing mortgages, because if homeowners default for whatever reason (such as a price decline) then the US government (= you and me) will have to cover the bail out of those billions of mortgages that have been insured.

Oh, and YES, it is inevitable this will all end up with the US taxpayers covering the cost, but there isn’t enough tax revenue coming in to cover the cost of default of all those US government insured mortgages – which leads us again to why the US dollar is DOOMED. They will have to print huge amounts of dollars.

[stockstradr]

I find it interesting how so many people think we have more of a deflation problem than an inflation problem.

There is an ever-larger circle of smart money and financial/economic analysts (albeit typically not mainstream) who consider eventual dollar collapse so certain, so inevitable that it doesn’t warrant debate regarding IF it will happen.

I’m in that camp. The long-game (to deal with eventual massive inflation) is so thoroughly discussed and planned out by most, that I don’t even mention it in posts any more.

Now, as for what will happen in the short to mid-term (next several years), that is very much open to debate.

Further, it is LAUGHABLE that anyone would think the last few YEARS have been inflationary for most items that Americans consume.

Not just for months, but for several years now we have seen price deflation, NOT inflation.

Almost every single item my family consumes, from cars to food to clothes to rent to satellite TV to electronic toys, has declined in price say 10% to 20% even 30% since late 2007.

One more important point, looking back we acknowledge that with the onset of this ugly recession in 2007,and the massive government stimulus that followed, we saw many inflation pundits jump up and exclaim that high inflation will follow immediately or within a year or two.

I bet my retirement portfolio (in the market, in commodities) that they were WRONG. I made lots of money.

The markets have PROVEN THEM WRONG about inflation in the near-term, and they have been forced to give up their position that inflation is imminent. What a joke!

Huge amounts of money have been lost by many since 2007 by their betting that inflation is about to hit (with the exception of those who bought and held gold)

[stockstradr]

I find it interesting how so many people think we have more of a deflation problem than an inflation problem.

There is an ever-larger circle of smart money and financial/economic analysts (albeit typically not mainstream) who consider eventual dollar collapse so certain, so inevitable that it doesn’t warrant debate regarding IF it will happen.

I’m in that camp. The long-game (to deal with eventual massive inflation) is so thoroughly discussed and planned out by most, that I don’t even mention it in posts any more.

Now, as for what will happen in the short to mid-term (next several years), that is very much open to debate.

Further, it is LAUGHABLE that anyone would think the last few YEARS have been inflationary for most items that Americans consume.

Not just for months, but for several years now we have seen price deflation, NOT inflation.

Almost every single item my family consumes, from cars to food to clothes to rent to satellite TV to electronic toys, has declined in price say 10% to 20% even 30% since late 2007.

One more important point, looking back we acknowledge that with the onset of this ugly recession in 2007,and the massive government stimulus that followed, we saw many inflation pundits jump up and exclaim that high inflation will follow immediately or within a year or two.

I bet my retirement portfolio (in the market, in commodities) that they were WRONG. I made lots of money.

The markets have PROVEN THEM WRONG about inflation in the near-term, and they have been forced to give up their position that inflation is imminent. What a joke!

Huge amounts of money have been lost by many since 2007 by their betting that inflation is about to hit (with the exception of those who bought and held gold)

[stockstradr]

I find it interesting how so many people think we have more of a deflation problem than an inflation problem.

There is an ever-larger circle of smart money and financial/economic analysts (albeit typically not mainstream) who consider eventual dollar collapse so certain, so inevitable that it doesn’t warrant debate regarding IF it will happen.

I’m in that camp. The long-game (to deal with eventual massive inflation) is so thoroughly discussed and planned out by most, that I don’t even mention it in posts any more.

Now, as for what will happen in the short to mid-term (next several years), that is very much open to debate.

Further, it is LAUGHABLE that anyone would think the last few YEARS have been inflationary for most items that Americans consume.

Not just for months, but for several years now we have seen price deflation, NOT inflation.

Almost every single item my family consumes, from cars to food to clothes to rent to satellite TV to electronic toys, has declined in price say 10% to 20% even 30% since late 2007.

One more important point, looking back we acknowledge that with the onset of this ugly recession in 2007,and the massive government stimulus that followed, we saw many inflation pundits jump up and exclaim that high inflation will follow immediately or within a year or two.

I bet my retirement portfolio (in the market, in commodities) that they were WRONG. I made lots of money.

The markets have PROVEN THEM WRONG about inflation in the near-term, and they have been forced to give up their position that inflation is imminent. What a joke!

Huge amounts of money have been lost by many since 2007 by their betting that inflation is about to hit (with the exception of those who bought and held gold)

[stockstradr]

I find it interesting how so many people think we have more of a deflation problem than an inflation problem.

There is an ever-larger circle of smart money and financial/economic analysts (albeit typically not mainstream) who consider eventual dollar collapse so certain, so inevitable that it doesn’t warrant debate regarding IF it will happen.

I’m in that camp. The long-game (to deal with eventual massive inflation) is so thoroughly discussed and planned out by most, that I don’t even mention it in posts any more.

Now, as for what will happen in the short to mid-term (next several years), that is very much open to debate.

Further, it is LAUGHABLE that anyone would think the last few YEARS have been inflationary for most items that Americans consume.

Not just for months, but for several years now we have seen price deflation, NOT inflation.

Almost every single item my family consumes, from cars to food to clothes to rent to satellite TV to electronic toys, has declined in price say 10% to 20% even 30% since late 2007.

One more important point, looking back we acknowledge that with the onset of this ugly recession in 2007,and the massive government stimulus that followed, we saw many inflation pundits jump up and exclaim that high inflation will follow immediately or within a year or two.

I bet my retirement portfolio (in the market, in commodities) that they were WRONG. I made lots of money.

The markets have PROVEN THEM WRONG about inflation in the near-term, and they have been forced to give up their position that inflation is imminent. What a joke!

Huge amounts of money have been lost by many since 2007 by their betting that inflation is about to hit (with the exception of those who bought and held gold)

[stockstradr]

I find it interesting how so many people think we have more of a deflation problem than an inflation problem.

There is an ever-larger circle of smart money and financial/economic analysts (albeit typically not mainstream) who consider eventual dollar collapse so certain, so inevitable that it doesn’t warrant debate regarding IF it will happen.

I’m in that camp. The long-game (to deal with eventual massive inflation) is so thoroughly discussed and planned out by most, that I don’t even mention it in posts any more.

Now, as for what will happen in the short to mid-term (next several years), that is very much open to debate.

Further, it is LAUGHABLE that anyone would think the last few YEARS have been inflationary for most items that Americans consume.

Not just for months, but for several years now we have seen price deflation, NOT inflation.

Almost every single item my family consumes, from cars to food to clothes to rent to satellite TV to electronic toys, has declined in price say 10% to 20% even 30% since late 2007.

One more important point, looking back we acknowledge that with the onset of this ugly recession in 2007,and the massive government stimulus that followed, we saw many inflation pundits jump up and exclaim that high inflation will follow immediately or within a year or two.

I bet my retirement portfolio (in the market, in commodities) that they were WRONG. I made lots of money.

The markets have PROVEN THEM WRONG about inflation in the near-term, and they have been forced to give up their position that inflation is imminent. What a joke!

Huge amounts of money have been lost by many since 2007 by their betting that inflation is about to hit (with the exception of those who bought and held gold)

[stockstradr]

Have you noticed that Shanghai index is creeping up recently?

You are right about that, and I admit it isn’t a small move, apparently up 11% since only July 5th

I guess my answer is that economic fundamentals will drive China’s stock markets, not the reverse.

Here is a good example of the kind of analysis of the economic fundamentals I find compelling regards imminent economic crash in China:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99HNFCn5RP8

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704229004575370591476816352.html

If that analysis is accurate, and those predictions come to pass, then China’s stock market must fall. Keep in mind the 2005 low was 1,000. The 2008 low was 1750. Taking a guess, I figure this economic crash in China will take the SSE Composite Index well below the 2008 low.

[stockstradr]

Have you noticed that Shanghai index is creeping up recently?

You are right about that, and I admit it isn’t a small move, apparently up 11% since only July 5th

I guess my answer is that economic fundamentals will drive China’s stock markets, not the reverse.

Here is a good example of the kind of analysis of the economic fundamentals I find compelling regards imminent economic crash in China:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99HNFCn5RP8

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704229004575370591476816352.html

If that analysis is accurate, and those predictions come to pass, then China’s stock market must fall. Keep in mind the 2005 low was 1,000. The 2008 low was 1750. Taking a guess, I figure this economic crash in China will take the SSE Composite Index well below the 2008 low.

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