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spdrun
Participant“It will take a serious economic collapse to leave you underwater on a home in 10 years from now.”
That really depends if you buy at a stupid price or a smart one. I wouldn’t give an aluminium penny for the finances of some of the people who bought during the April-June frenzy of this year.
Anyway, you should be buying something that cash flows positively AS A RENTAL in this market, and yes, it’s still possible right now.
ParticipantThis assumes a normal market. With the current market, anything bought from say 2003-2008 (or refi’d during that period) becomes a short sale if prices drop even a bit from the spring madness. Yeah, yeah, but they won’t sell … people move, loan mods typically lower payments, but you still owe the original principal upon sale, and not everyone wants to be a landlord (if the loan mod even allows non-primary use).
External force: Look at the effect that the end of the $8k housing credit in 2010 had on SD prices and consider that a rise in rates from 3.25% to 4.5+% has MORE than that effect as far as monthly nut.
I don’t think the market will tank to 2011 prices, but prices not too far off from fall/winter 2012 prices are quite plausible, followed by a gradual (though maybe spiky) rise in the future.
The past five years seem to have been marked by a few periods of frenzy and a few periods of extreme slowness. I don’t see why this whipsawing should not continue.
ParticipantIt’s amazing how the SD market can turn either way within (practically) weeks.
Participant“Had” power. Hopefully, the baboons will be fired without pension.
ParticipantSee (1)
Participant(1) Good luck getting the bickerers in DC to agree to raise min. wage
(2) If CPI is cooked (doesn’t include food, fuel, or house sale prices), how do you expect wages to rise by 7% p/a?ParticipantThis almost seems like something out of a bad spaghetti Western … perhaps they should be summarily deported to Arizona.
ParticipantSD Realtor – golden opportunities? I’ve seen a few condos in SD that would pull in 7+% return go in the last month.
Lots of ridiculous pricing, but the condos that are priced stupidly are seeing reduction after reduction, where they may have sold three months ago.
The SD market is extraordinarily sensitive to incentives. Remember the $8000 credit and the run-up it caused? Guess what: a rise from 3.5% to 4.75% or so was the equivalent of pulling this credit, if not more.
I highly doubt we’ll see 2011 pricing in the near future, but mid to early 2012 pricing is for sure possible. This run up has been too far, too fast.
Participantlivinincali – are you implying that 30-year rates aren’t actually fixed, and that the loans may be called in for rental properties? If so, the excrement is really going to hit the propeller, much worse than 2007-2009.
ParticipantPeak for this year was probably May-June. Their statistics are based on sales that were likely accepted about then if not earlier.
You’re probably doing well if you own in San Diego area, but not 4.2% from July to August well. Besides, unless you’re desperate to sell or mortgage yourself to the hilt, who cares?
ParticipantI don’t use common login — there’s generally an option to create a user name tied to an e-mail addy that’s not Scroogle, Bong, or Fecesbook.
Not only a question of privacy, but FB is sufficiently buggy as to make profiles vanish for days for “maintenance” — I don’t want to lose access to other websites due to FB’s whim or incompetence.
(And to be clear, my e-mail is also self-hosted, with an old free Google Apps account only used for failover.) Thank G-d for an ISP that still allows ports 25 and 993 incoming, no firewalls.
ParticipantPerhaps this is a back-door attempt to wind down FHA loans entirely.
ParticipantI think the flattening has already come. Here’s HOPING for another crash — should be one hell of a buying opportunity if the stupid money gets shaken out.
(This being said, you can flip even in a “slow” market — if you buy homes that need cash or are slow to close i.e. short sales and auctions, do some work, and sell them, you can always make money. A lot of people don’t want the bother of doing it themselves.)
ParticipantMy strategy is to either ask a friend, or pick three contractors that have good reviews on Yelp. First one to name a reasonably price AND who can talk intelligently about the job him/her self (i.e. I don’t get to talk to some froufrou secretary) wins a kewpie doll at the county fair.
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