Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
spdrun
ParticipantWhat happens if everyone saves and there are no debts to invest in? That’s the not so tiny paradox of thrift.
Then G-d fucking forbid, people would need to go to work in a productive industry, invest in a small business, or provide a useful service. Most people will still exchange money for goods or services they can’t provide themselves since they’re not 1880s pioneers.
There would still be short-term debt (0% interest between providing a good or service and being paid) of course.
Housing would still be a decent investment, since not everyone would want to buy a house (especially if it would require actual savings), BTW.
ParticipantDifference being that LA prices seem to move much more with the national market rather than staying desirable. Wasn’t there a change of 40-50% peak-to-trough?
NYC and nearby boroughs (i.e. Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan) never really went down since 2008, maybe 10-15%. Same went for the non-ghetto parts of DC.
ParticipantIf your job allows you to work from home, your job allows you to work from India.
Not if the job requires you to physically interface with hardware say 20% of the time … 😀
Participantunless I got my math wrong it was closer to 6% maybe 6.5.
OK maybe closer to 7% yeaterday.Agreed: I think we both got it wrong. -7.5% from top to yesterday’s lowest number.
Peak: 16588
Yesterday: 1535615356/16588 ~= 92.5% of peak.
ParticipantDow was already down over 9% from peak yesterday, not 5-6% 🙂 Wonder what kind of retraction would be needed to start generating margin calls en masse — I’m hearing that margin debt is at historical highs.
ParticipantLarge amounts of a given ethnic group don’t necessarily make a global market. I think the key is actually a MIXTURE of ethnic groups and international name recognition. The coastal and/or expensive parts of LA County have that. But ask the average person on the street in Bangkok or Berlin about Ontario or Riverside (I know, not LA County 🙂 ) and you’ll hear “River-what” or “that’s a lake in Canada…”
ParticipantWay too volatile and tied to the fortunes of the US property market as a whole to be considered part of the global market. Unless you’re speaking of specific, very desirable parts of the LA area.
ParticipantDavis?
Merced?
Santa Barbara?You’re dreaming. They’re about as tied to the global market as Ann Arbor, Charlottesville, or New Brunswick are.
Remember that residency in California is a requirement for in-state tuition. This does NOT mean residency in the city or county where the student’s chosen UC school is located.
ParticipantIMHO, there are only about a handful of metro ateas in the US that strongly correlate to the global market. Those are NYC, SF, DC, Miami, and maybe coastal LA County. Frenzy in SD may be slowing down. I just saw something that would have fetched a price in the $170-190k range even four months ago sell in the mid $130s. Good condition 1/1, too.
Not rental material (too good condition, so not enough upside) but still a deal I haven’t seen in the last 9-10 months.
ParticipantEarnings are good. They’re not so good as to justify the kind of gains we saw over 2013. Big deal. Dow is back to levels last seen in, oh, September of last year. Breathe. Relax. Enjoy the show.
ParticipantNo: all this because the markets outpaced economic conditions. Cutting QE is just a warning shot across the bow to get the markets to be more in line with fundamentals.
ParticipantI don’t hope to see 40%. 20%-25% from peak (maybe 30% on NASDAQ) would cut the froth out of the markets without causing major economic damage.
ParticipantMinus 20-25% would be ideal — enough to erase the past 12 months of frothiness, but not necessarily enough to cause the Fed to cut back on tapering if stocks level off afterwards.
I suspect that the Fed wants a hard correction, just not a 40-50% crash at this point.
Bonus points for Piggs if:
(a) the media gets in on the game. “Stocks falling, property prices falling again, don’t buy now, panic, panic, fear.” The lemmings will follow, smart people will act to the contrary.
(b) some people considering buying property will *have* to hold off.ParticipantMargin debt… the 1000 lb gorilla in the room.
-
AuthorPosts
