[spdrun]

Although it’s interesting that this started in less crowded areas of cities — the index case in NYC was actually in the suburbs, and the worst-affected areas are suburban(ish) Queens near JFK airport.

[spdrun]

My prediction – detached home prices up, condo/apartment prices down. Lower rates won’t change some people’s fear of living close to others who may have the cooties. We’ll see a wave of exurbanization like in the 1950s (was that driven in part by polio?).

[spdrun]

Where do you make the jump from “available testing on the public dime” or “fever checks via IR camera” to Draconian surveillance measures? I’m not proposing tracking everyone’s movements, just their health (as an emergency measure) when entering public facilities.

I’m also not proposing to make anyone’s name or information public. This is more like “if you can’t reach this bar, you’re too short to take the ride.”

[spdrun]

NY also ramped up testing earlier than other states … we’ve actually tested about 2250 people per million residents. We’ll be above South Korea’s testing rates in the next week.

[spdrun]

Who says a shutdown would have been needed in January? The Federal government could have…

(1) figured out how to massively ramp up production of masks and other protective measures

(2) did the same for test kits

(3) required 2 weeks quarantine for anyone coming from China with or without symptoms. break quarantine, banned for life from the airline

issued guidelines for….

(4) temperature checks at all airports via IR cameras. anyone over 25 with temp > 38C would be allowed to rebook two weeks later for free

(5) ditto for all stadiums, concert halls, meeting venues seating more than 250 people

(6) issuing everyone with masks, encouraging mask-wearing in public

(7) required employers to give anyone with a documented influenza-like illness (ILI) two weeks paid leave, no questions asked.

(8) guidelines for 30-50% capacity reduction in venues like theaters and restaurants. Encourage work-from-home.

The goal isn’t to bring r^0 to zero, merely to reduce it below 1.

[spdrun]

More good news … this thing might be as dangerous as the common cold in a year or two:

https://medium.com/@hpcngmoh/we-could-be-witnessing-the-birth-of-a-common-cold-3c9ea1982cd2

[spdrun]

The hotspots for COVID have been places like a suburban synagogue, a church, and a suburban-ish nursing home. Heavily-urbanized South Korea has done a much better job in controlling this mess than we did.

[spdrun]

Again, mistranslation wins the day … outdoor physical activity, dog walking, etc are still allowed in France, just not in groups. You just have to carry a form pinky-swearing your reason to be out or be fined the equivalent of $40.

[spdrun]

Vaccine tech is a lot better than 100 years ago where all they had was “treat infected tissue with heat or disinfectant and hope it works.”

[spdrun]

Re: Babysitting- better the kids be in groups of 5-6 than in an entire school.

[spdrun]

Do you mean an oxygen concentrator?

You should also look at getting hydroxychloroquine if you can obtain it (either online or from a 3rd country).

[spdrun]

The national emergency is for two reasons:
(1) frees up a lot of emergency funding
(2) Corps of Engineers and Public Health Service assistance in getting new hospitals running.

As far as the models, better safe than sorry. Until we have better testing up and running and know more, let’s try to reduce the spread of this thing. Remember, if it infects 3 people per week from one person on average and you can get that number down to 2, in 5 weeks, you’ll have 32 cases vs 243. If you can get the number below 1, the epidemic will burn out naturally.

[spdrun]

12. is incorrect. “Do not leave your home” shouldn’t be taken to mean don’t go for walks, don’t go to your yard, don’t go outside. This isn’t the aftermath of Chornobyl … if anything, exposure to sun and fresh air reduce stress and boost immunity. Don’t hang out in crowded rooms, but going outdoors is OK and even healthy…

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504358/#__sec4title

[spdrun]

^^^ Why would the US military want to destroy our own economy? This makes zero sense. Also, viruses can seemingly come out of nowhere. See also: 1918-20 “Spanish” flu and Polio.

[spdrun]

^^^

hope not. There’s a lot to be said for in-person classroom discussion and hands-on lab work. We’re social animals … sticking people behind a screen is a form of slow torture. Hopefully, things can go back to normal after this is over without the techbros taking over and ruining what’s enjoyable about life (social interaction).

Society survived the 1918 flu and polio pandemics … no reason why we have to be cowards and isolate ourselves permanently because of this.

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