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spdrun
Participantteaboy: sane countries and states won’t want to keep the reproductive number below 1. They’ll want to protect the old and ill while keeping the number AT 1.0. Controlled burn = herd immunity sooner.
NYC may already be close to herd immunity, and if so, thank G-d for that.
ParticipantMy point is that even if 25% of the street homeless in NYC died of it, it wouldn’t alter the numbers too much.
Participant^^^
Wouldn’t living on the streets already select for people who are good at fighting off infections? i.e. those street homeless that weren’t immunocompetent have mostly died quickly. Also, the street homeless population is a relatively small fraction of NYC’s population (maybe 4000 people so 0.05% of total).
ParticipantThis is unclear … this thing may be burning itself out in NYC naturally:
I wonder what the true exposure rate on the Diamond Princess was. About 20% of the people on board tested positive for virus, but that’s not definitive for exposure, since there’s a window in the illness for testing — outside of this window, people don’t test positive unless the swab is done exactly right. It could be nearly 100% exposure and antibodies for all we know. I would love to see a serological survey of all of the passengers on the Princess.
12 people died out of 3700, which means the infection fatality rate could be 0.3%, even with an average population age of 58. Extrapolating this to NY state’s expected 16000 deaths, and assuming a true infection/exposure fatality rate of something like 0.15% to account for a lower average age of 37-38, 10 million people may already be exposed, which means that we’re 2/3 of the way to herd immunity.
The DP incident isn’t a large enough sample to be definative, but it make me wonder if cases in NYC are now slowing because half the state (and probably more than half of the city) are dead-end hosts at this point in time.
If this thing started out with an R0 number of 3.0, 50% immunity would lower it to 1.5, making it roughly as infectious as the flu in the population and only slightly more lethal.
ParticipantIHME model implies a peak in mid-April, and those models have been pretty accurate thus far…
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california
California started mass house arrest and store closings around mid-March, and time from infection to diagnosis is 2-4 weeks at most. Social interaction has likely been decreased by 80-90%, so there’s no way that r^0 is above 1.0 at this point.
Participant^^^ if this is implemented in CA, just move to a state that doesn’t place as high of a value on life for the next three months until all restrictions are lifted. I suspect that AZ and NV will brag about starting to “open for business” next month, like it or not.
This tends to be a conservative model, but it predicts approximately zero infections in the US by late June, with NY being basically free of infections by early May (perhaps everyone who could have been infected already was)…
ParticipantWhat’s up with the Adolf/foreskin haircut on the cop at stage left? Looks like a literal dickhead.
Participantdid it spread through factories? how many of those factories had Chinese supplier reps visiting in the last few months?
ParticipantIt actually worked poorly … a lot of people left Wuhan because of rumors of impending lockdown, causing the virus to spread. If it had “worked”, France, the US, Italy, etc wouldn’t be in the shit right now.
There’s no evidence that a less-than-complete lockdown would have worked any less without the gross abuse of civil liberties. Cases in parts of the US where there’s been a less-than-complete lockdown (basically, places of public assembly closed) are flattening as I write this.
ParticipantWas China’s lockdown primarily for public health reasons or to hide how many people died? People welded into their homes can’t see troops carting off bodies and burning them.
ParticipantTrump was bad, Cuomo wasn’t much better. Moderate social distancing measures, encouraging MTA employees and riders to wear masks (rather than forbidding employees from wearing masks), and public education starting in mid-February would have likely averted the outbreak to the point that drastic measures wouldn’t have been needed. Everyone (including European governments) did too little, too late.
The only countries that were on point were South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc, and that was because they learned the hard way with SARS in 2003.
Participant“The Hammer and the Dance”. The endgame isn’t “no” new cases, just lowering the number of infections so the hospitals can handle it and so that contacts of cases can be ID’ed…
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Say r0 of this thing is 3, meaning that each “generation” of the virus multiplies cases by a factor of three. Reducing contact by a factor of 10, wearing masks, etc will likely reduce the “fertility” of the virus to about 0.3, meaning that the number of cases will shrink exponentially in a similar period that it took them to grow. Politicians ordering people around also need to remember that between incubation period, showing symptoms, and testing, there’s a lag time of several weeks. New cases and hospitalizations will take 2 weeks to a month to start showing real declines.
But decline they will, almost as quickly as they grew. New cases will be a bell-shaped curve, though TOTAL people in hospital will still go up, since many people stay in hospital for a few weeks.
ParticipantHere’s the problem with “immunity passports” — either a very small % of people have been infected and bringing them back to work would be economically insignificant, or a large % of people have been exposed (say 50%) and we’re well on our way to herd immunity.
And, of course, people will do their best to catch this if catching it and recovering means freedom.
ParticipantLet’s hope that we’ll go back to some measure of in-person education and work after this…
Social distancing is a form of mass imprisonment. The sooner this shit ends, the better. Humans are social animals.
There’s a reason why homeschooled kids tend to have social/psych issues.
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