[smshorttimer]

[quote=Rt.66]Nothing new in this bubble collapse, except its much, much bigger and the economy is much worse.

So follow what always happens and count on it being worse this time around.

You will always have the too eager fence sitters jumping in way early and chatting about how its the bottom (although EVERY indicator says, no way!). Right now the bankers are playing these “investors” like a Stratovarius. These people will find their 2008-2009 smoking REO deal very far underwater.

These folks will likely be out of money to bid up REOs by late fall, and the “investors” amongst them will be trying to flip by January 2010 and the long termers will be thinking jingle keys in 2011.

Then reality is setting in and people realize that, just like the other times, things are gonna go down, overshoot to the downside, and then sit at the bottom until something happens to spark things up again (which may never happen again in their lifetimes).

When people stop trying to downplay the biggest foreclosure disaster in history (x50) and let it and its ramifications sink in……

When people barf a bit in their mouths when RE investing is mentioned…. then we are getting somewhere.

[/quote]

Have we not seen the ramifications of this colossal mess reflected in plenty of places already? You waiting for North County Coast and Uptown to hit ’99 prices?

[smshorttimer]

[quote=Rt.66]Nothing new in this bubble collapse, except its much, much bigger and the economy is much worse.

So follow what always happens and count on it being worse this time around.

You will always have the too eager fence sitters jumping in way early and chatting about how its the bottom (although EVERY indicator says, no way!). Right now the bankers are playing these “investors” like a Stratovarius. These people will find their 2008-2009 smoking REO deal very far underwater.

These folks will likely be out of money to bid up REOs by late fall, and the “investors” amongst them will be trying to flip by January 2010 and the long termers will be thinking jingle keys in 2011.

Then reality is setting in and people realize that, just like the other times, things are gonna go down, overshoot to the downside, and then sit at the bottom until something happens to spark things up again (which may never happen again in their lifetimes).

When people stop trying to downplay the biggest foreclosure disaster in history (x50) and let it and its ramifications sink in……

When people barf a bit in their mouths when RE investing is mentioned…. then we are getting somewhere.

[/quote]

Have we not seen the ramifications of this colossal mess reflected in plenty of places already? You waiting for North County Coast and Uptown to hit ’99 prices?

[smshorttimer]

[quote=Rt.66]Nothing new in this bubble collapse, except its much, much bigger and the economy is much worse.

So follow what always happens and count on it being worse this time around.

You will always have the too eager fence sitters jumping in way early and chatting about how its the bottom (although EVERY indicator says, no way!). Right now the bankers are playing these “investors” like a Stratovarius. These people will find their 2008-2009 smoking REO deal very far underwater.

These folks will likely be out of money to bid up REOs by late fall, and the “investors” amongst them will be trying to flip by January 2010 and the long termers will be thinking jingle keys in 2011.

Then reality is setting in and people realize that, just like the other times, things are gonna go down, overshoot to the downside, and then sit at the bottom until something happens to spark things up again (which may never happen again in their lifetimes).

When people stop trying to downplay the biggest foreclosure disaster in history (x50) and let it and its ramifications sink in……

When people barf a bit in their mouths when RE investing is mentioned…. then we are getting somewhere.

[/quote]

Have we not seen the ramifications of this colossal mess reflected in plenty of places already? You waiting for North County Coast and Uptown to hit ’99 prices?

[smshorttimer]

[quote=Rt.66]Nothing new in this bubble collapse, except its much, much bigger and the economy is much worse.

So follow what always happens and count on it being worse this time around.

You will always have the too eager fence sitters jumping in way early and chatting about how its the bottom (although EVERY indicator says, no way!). Right now the bankers are playing these “investors” like a Stratovarius. These people will find their 2008-2009 smoking REO deal very far underwater.

These folks will likely be out of money to bid up REOs by late fall, and the “investors” amongst them will be trying to flip by January 2010 and the long termers will be thinking jingle keys in 2011.

Then reality is setting in and people realize that, just like the other times, things are gonna go down, overshoot to the downside, and then sit at the bottom until something happens to spark things up again (which may never happen again in their lifetimes).

When people stop trying to downplay the biggest foreclosure disaster in history (x50) and let it and its ramifications sink in……

When people barf a bit in their mouths when RE investing is mentioned…. then we are getting somewhere.

[/quote]

Have we not seen the ramifications of this colossal mess reflected in plenty of places already? You waiting for North County Coast and Uptown to hit ’99 prices?

[smshorttimer]

[quote=Rt.66]Nothing new in this bubble collapse, except its much, much bigger and the economy is much worse.

So follow what always happens and count on it being worse this time around.

You will always have the too eager fence sitters jumping in way early and chatting about how its the bottom (although EVERY indicator says, no way!). Right now the bankers are playing these “investors” like a Stratovarius. These people will find their 2008-2009 smoking REO deal very far underwater.

These folks will likely be out of money to bid up REOs by late fall, and the “investors” amongst them will be trying to flip by January 2010 and the long termers will be thinking jingle keys in 2011.

Then reality is setting in and people realize that, just like the other times, things are gonna go down, overshoot to the downside, and then sit at the bottom until something happens to spark things up again (which may never happen again in their lifetimes).

When people stop trying to downplay the biggest foreclosure disaster in history (x50) and let it and its ramifications sink in……

When people barf a bit in their mouths when RE investing is mentioned…. then we are getting somewhere.

[/quote]

Have we not seen the ramifications of this colossal mess reflected in plenty of places already? You waiting for North County Coast and Uptown to hit ’99 prices?

[smshorttimer]

This North County bear must concede that there is very little of quality on the low end, my particular “low end” being up to $350,000. We’ve found exactly one house we were excited enough about to write an offer on, and it was a short sale that we were beaten to by a day. There is one, maybe two other active listings that I could see pursuing.

[smshorttimer]

This North County bear must concede that there is very little of quality on the low end, my particular “low end” being up to $350,000. We’ve found exactly one house we were excited enough about to write an offer on, and it was a short sale that we were beaten to by a day. There is one, maybe two other active listings that I could see pursuing.

[smshorttimer]

This North County bear must concede that there is very little of quality on the low end, my particular “low end” being up to $350,000. We’ve found exactly one house we were excited enough about to write an offer on, and it was a short sale that we were beaten to by a day. There is one, maybe two other active listings that I could see pursuing.

[smshorttimer]

This North County bear must concede that there is very little of quality on the low end, my particular “low end” being up to $350,000. We’ve found exactly one house we were excited enough about to write an offer on, and it was a short sale that we were beaten to by a day. There is one, maybe two other active listings that I could see pursuing.

[smshorttimer]

This North County bear must concede that there is very little of quality on the low end, my particular “low end” being up to $350,000. We’ve found exactly one house we were excited enough about to write an offer on, and it was a short sale that we were beaten to by a day. There is one, maybe two other active listings that I could see pursuing.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=esmith]Ok, there was a small error in my calculations (I was computing federal tax based on 130K AGI), and I did not include child tax credit because it’s the same in both cases. I also used 2008 tax tables. Using 120K AGI and taking child tax credit into account, I get $15,037 federal tax when renting and $5,217 federal tax when owning. The difference is lower by $80/month.

I do not doubt that you will be able to spend all money that’s left after paying your mortgage. My point is that owning a 650k house does not put you under more financial stress than renting for $2700/month. [/quote]

I might have missed it, but did you account for all that unused cash in the renter scenario? You can argue monthly principal pay-down versus short-term interest earnings, but in a market like this one I feel perfectly comfortable remaining liquid. My household income is no doubt in the lower tier among Piggington users, so that $300 a month is real $ to me.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=esmith]Ok, there was a small error in my calculations (I was computing federal tax based on 130K AGI), and I did not include child tax credit because it’s the same in both cases. I also used 2008 tax tables. Using 120K AGI and taking child tax credit into account, I get $15,037 federal tax when renting and $5,217 federal tax when owning. The difference is lower by $80/month.

I do not doubt that you will be able to spend all money that’s left after paying your mortgage. My point is that owning a 650k house does not put you under more financial stress than renting for $2700/month. [/quote]

I might have missed it, but did you account for all that unused cash in the renter scenario? You can argue monthly principal pay-down versus short-term interest earnings, but in a market like this one I feel perfectly comfortable remaining liquid. My household income is no doubt in the lower tier among Piggington users, so that $300 a month is real $ to me.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=esmith]Ok, there was a small error in my calculations (I was computing federal tax based on 130K AGI), and I did not include child tax credit because it’s the same in both cases. I also used 2008 tax tables. Using 120K AGI and taking child tax credit into account, I get $15,037 federal tax when renting and $5,217 federal tax when owning. The difference is lower by $80/month.

I do not doubt that you will be able to spend all money that’s left after paying your mortgage. My point is that owning a 650k house does not put you under more financial stress than renting for $2700/month. [/quote]

I might have missed it, but did you account for all that unused cash in the renter scenario? You can argue monthly principal pay-down versus short-term interest earnings, but in a market like this one I feel perfectly comfortable remaining liquid. My household income is no doubt in the lower tier among Piggington users, so that $300 a month is real $ to me.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=esmith]Ok, there was a small error in my calculations (I was computing federal tax based on 130K AGI), and I did not include child tax credit because it’s the same in both cases. I also used 2008 tax tables. Using 120K AGI and taking child tax credit into account, I get $15,037 federal tax when renting and $5,217 federal tax when owning. The difference is lower by $80/month.

I do not doubt that you will be able to spend all money that’s left after paying your mortgage. My point is that owning a 650k house does not put you under more financial stress than renting for $2700/month. [/quote]

I might have missed it, but did you account for all that unused cash in the renter scenario? You can argue monthly principal pay-down versus short-term interest earnings, but in a market like this one I feel perfectly comfortable remaining liquid. My household income is no doubt in the lower tier among Piggington users, so that $300 a month is real $ to me.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=esmith]Ok, there was a small error in my calculations (I was computing federal tax based on 130K AGI), and I did not include child tax credit because it’s the same in both cases. I also used 2008 tax tables. Using 120K AGI and taking child tax credit into account, I get $15,037 federal tax when renting and $5,217 federal tax when owning. The difference is lower by $80/month.

I do not doubt that you will be able to spend all money that’s left after paying your mortgage. My point is that owning a 650k house does not put you under more financial stress than renting for $2700/month. [/quote]

I might have missed it, but did you account for all that unused cash in the renter scenario? You can argue monthly principal pay-down versus short-term interest earnings, but in a market like this one I feel perfectly comfortable remaining liquid. My household income is no doubt in the lower tier among Piggington users, so that $300 a month is real $ to me.

[Author]

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