[SK in CV]

Article seems a bit ill-timed. LPS reported last week that mortgage delinquencies in May were down more than 25% from a year earlier and at their lowest level in almost 5 years. The claim that “the bureaucracy risks being overwhelmed” is both accurate and horribly misleading. The “bureaucracy” is at its lowest risk since 2008.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
Cardiff: If things in Egypt continue to spiral out of control, it will turn into a full-blown civil war.

[/quote]

You very well could be right. There is little reason to think the outcome will be similar to 2 1/2 years ago. It wasn’t a particularly pretty transition from Mubarak to military control until the election. But it never came close to a full-blown civil war.

I think one of the big differences is that Mubarak just didn’t have a whole lot of popular support. The now former Islamist government probably still has more support that Mubarak did when he stepped down. But the military government may also have more support than the last time, they’ve proved pretty reliably that they’re willing to turn over (some) control to a democratically elected government. (I have no idea how much control they maintained over Morsi, possibly quite a bit more than the rest of the world thought. Maintaining treaties with Israel was unquestionably not part of Morsi’s plan, at least not his party’s plan.)

Possibly the biggest problem facing the military government is that Egypt is flat broke, with zero foreign credit, no more than a few months of fuel left, and without aid, won’t get anymore. More than 1/3 of the population gets food aid, and food prices have skyrocketed recently because of limited supply. And their water system is falling apart. Sharia law don’t mean shit when there isn’t any food on the table.

[SK in CV]

Are you looking for it purely as an investment, or is it user space you’re looking for? Any idea approx. sq foot you need?

[SK in CV]

[quote=spdrun]
Lastly, why are 16,000 gun deaths per year acceptable, and we hold the 2nd Amendment sacrosanct, yet the possibility of a few deaths from terrorism causes us to trample the 4th?[/quote]

Very nicely done.

[SK in CV]

[quote=bearishgurl]SK, this isn’t the same brother that worked “outside” as a SD cop, is it?

[/quote]

No, it’s not. The (now former) cop is my younger brother. He’s a physical mess too, but all from work related injuries. I was referring to my twin brother. He’s had plenty of injuries too, but none life threatening.

[SK in CV]

[quote=bearishgurl]I lost an immediate family member from Stage 4 melanoma. It’s a swift and sure death. I myself have had a non-malignant skin cancer removed. This is another one of those diseases that is entirely preventable by taking personal responsibility for one’s skin in the sun and paying attention to changes in one’s skin.

[/quote]

Bullshit. It is neither a swift and sure death, nor is it entirely preventable.

My brother has had it twice. First time more than 10 years ago. Second time 18 months ago. He’s still alive, with no signs of it. Neither are all melanomas preventable.

You’re lucky you’re healthy. I’m sure you like to attribute it to your healthy lifestyle. It’s still just luck. My aforementioned brother is my twin. Thirty years ago he was a professional athlete and weighs less now than he did when he played. Never been a pound overweight. Has worked out at least 3 days a week since he was in his teens. Eats a healthy diet. Barely drinks and has never smoked (even weed). Never spent the 1,000s of hours in the sun that I did. He’s probably spent 75 days in the hospital over the last 15 years. He has now, or has had at least 4 different things that could have, or could still kill him with no notice. None of them are lifestyle related. Has a defibrillator permanently installed in his chest so he doesn’t spontaneously go into v-tach. (It’s gone off at least 3 times, maybe more, since he had it installed almost 10 years ago. He doesn’t even mention it anymore.)

So be happy and count your blessings. But don’t for a minute think that your good health is just because you took care of yourself. So do a lot of other people who aren’t near as lucky as you.

[SK in CV]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Last week,
FED SUGGESTS IT’S CLOSER TO SLOWING BOND PURCHASES

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/fed-says-it-will-continue-85b-bond-purchases%5B/quote%5D

So they never actually took their foot off the gas. “Will continue 85B [per month] bond purchases”. They announced they are continuing with the same level of purchases. Not taking their foot off the gas.

[SK in CV]

TS…when did they take their foot off the gas?

[SK in CV]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Yea OK but slowing market right at the usually hottest period I think is a sign,
I guess we need to see what the effect the recent rise in rates will have and where rates go from here.
Bond market is not happy.

Would not be surprised to see the Fed hit the panic button.[/quote]

I’m not sure what you mean by the bolded part. So far anyway, there has been no indication the economy as a whole is changing significantly. Either heating up or slowing down. What we’ve seen in the RE market nationwide is a slow and steady increase in inventories since they bottomed right around the first of the year. We’ve seen the same thing in some (but not all) regions in SD. But there are still historically low levels of inventory, both in SD and nationwide.

Beyond that, what the Fed announced last week is that they’re doing absolutely nothing different today than last month, and don’t anticipate doing anything different in the immediate future. The “panic button” would imply a change in policy. I don’t see that happening.

[SK in CV]

I’m not missing the point NSR, I’m making it.

First point – Pension system hasn’t been fixed because of pick-ups.

Second point – Pickups represent a very small, almost tiny percentage of CA public employees.

New point. Exceptions to the norm, that are counter to the trajectory of lower costs and benefits should be fixed. But they don’t alter the trajectory.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Leorocky]Somewhere in this thread someone suggested that pension largess issues were ‘fixed’ because the workers had their contributions raised. I guess not.

“It’s called the “pension pickup” — and like a rich uncle picking up the tab at a big family dinner, Bay Area taxpayers footed the bill for more than $221 million last year for the employee share of 63,000 public workers’ pension contributions. The practice undermines retirement rules that were designed to force employees to share the burden for their pensions.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/23/california-pension-pickup_n_3486802.html?ir=San+Francisco%5B/quote%5D

You guess wrong. The vast majority of California public employees have had their contributions increased. The 63,000 cited, who received either full or in most cases, partial payment of the employee contribution by their employers is dwarfed by the number who have had their contributions increased over the last few years. The 63,000 is less than 1/3 of the number of state employees, and around 6% of the total number of current employees covered by CalPERS. This method of funding, as bad as it is, is the small, almost tiny minority, not the norm.

[SK in CV]

[quote=SD Realtor]People that throw in all cash offers and then change the financing terms in escrow are defaulting on the contract. They usually get punted because there are higher financed offers.[/quote]

Thanks for adding this. The claims that this was regularly happening seemed dubious to me. One of the main advantages to a seller of accepting an all-cash offer is a quick closing. And as HLS has pointed out, it’s extremely difficult and unlikely to get a loan closed in less than 30 days. That this was actually happening seemed more speculation than based on reality or any first hand knowledge.

[SK in CV]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
I read somewhere dataquick reported 30% of transactions being cash. So according to SD realtor’s data, 20% all cash is low for Carmel Valley.

[/quote]

I’m not exactly sure what you mean by “20% all cash is low for Carmel Valley”. Assuming you’re not disputing SDR’s data, I think what you’re saying is that the 20% call cash in CV is lower than the all cash percentage in the rest of the region.

And that makes perfect sense. We’ve heard for quite awhile about all cash investors buying up property with the intention of holding and renting units. There will always be some all cash purchases for owner occupancy. CV is not traditionally been a good market for SFH rental property for investors. I doubt there have been a lot of all cash purchases by investors, with the intent of renting out the units. It’s been, and probably continues to be, among the worst markets for that kind of investment. They’re buying in lower priced markets where rental rates can generate decent cash flow. Can’t easily do that in the CV detached home market.

[SK in CV]

[quote=moneymaker]10 year T bills @ 3.57% today. As the 10 year goes higher, if the fed leaves rates low don’t they end up losing more money. Maybe the 2 year @ .235 is a better indicator however of how much money the government is losing. In that light it is a mere pittance I suppose. Once rates do go up nobody will hold the old T bills, they will cash them in to buy the new higher rate T bills.[/quote]

T-bills are US government obligations that pay off on a specific date at a specific amount (in denominations of $1,000), with due dates of less than 1 year. They don’t pay interest, they are issued, and bought and sold on the open market at a discount. They can’t be cashed in early.

Similarly, Treasury notes can’t be cashed in early. They’re obligations that are due between 1 and 10 years and pay interest. Once issued, they exist to maturity. Investors cannot cash them in at full value, and then buy a higher yielding note with the proceeds. They can only sell them on the open market at current rates.

[SK in CV]

Pretty nice call on the tbx. Similarly, my girlfriend got into tnx the middle of April. She’s traveling today, I suspect she’ll dump it tomorrow morning.

I like the guys at Pimco. Gross is good. But I particularly like El-Erian. He doesn’t pull any punches. He had a column about a week ago basically saying the Fed has done everything it can with monetary policy, and laid the responsibility of the potential for high unemployment becoming structural at the feet of congress and their lack of fiscal policy action. Maybe I like him because I often agree with him.

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