MACRO future foreclosure concern

[HLS]

Realistic article from a month ago…
I’m not trying to make a point about ‘west of I-5’ OR Carmel Valley, but a rising tide lifts all boats.

http://www.washingtonguardian.com/another-foreclosure-crunch

[bearishgurl]

HLS, are you trying to say that “Carmel Valley” and “West of 5” residential property owners are immune from foreclosure? I’m not sure exactly what you mean, but I don’t think boats getting lifted in La Jolla helps homeowners in Lemon Grove one iota.

I saw the article and agree with it but also realize it applies to residential markets where Fannie, Freddie and FHA/VA mortgages are utilized in the majority of closings AND there are enough current (last few years) resale comps which sold under the above terms.

How much is “enough” resales in a given micro-market? I think at least 10% per year of total parcels successfully being transferred at arm’s length.

I don’t believe neighborhoods situated in CA coastal counties which have had historically very little turnover are in danger of becoming distressed and it doesn’t matter their median value. It could be $250K or $1M+.

Remember, we have Prop 13 and its progeny, Props 58 and 193 on the books of this wonderful state. Millions of people living in paid-for and nearly paid-for properties are NOT going to be selling anytime soon. Taking title to a property through an intrafamily transfer deed pursuant to Props 58 and 193 is not a “sale,” per se.

Some well-established areas within CA (and often the best micro-areas within those areas) currently have hundreds, if not thousands of properties taking advantage of Props 58 and 193.

These affected properties aren’t going anywhere, nor are their owners and/or their owners’ heirs. The vast majority of these properties will never be in foreclosure and there are millions of them in CA.

[SK in CV]

Article seems a bit ill-timed. LPS reported last week that mortgage delinquencies in May were down more than 25% from a year earlier and at their lowest level in almost 5 years. The claim that “the bureaucracy risks being overwhelmed” is both accurate and horribly misleading. The “bureaucracy” is at its lowest risk since 2008.

[HLS]

[quote=SK in CV]Article seems a bit ill-timed. LPS reported last week that mortgage delinquencies in May were down more than 25% from a year earlier and at their lowest level in almost 5 years. The claim that “the bureaucracy risks being overwhelmed” is both accurate and horribly misleading. The “bureaucracy” is at its lowest risk since 2008.[/quote]

The risk in 2008 was off the charts. Just because the patient only has 10 things seriously wrong with them rather than 30 things doesn’t mean that they are healthy or are going to survive.
‘Lowest risk since 2008’ still means on life support to me.

I’m not saying that either the article OR LPS has the ‘correct’ perspective, but just to point out that there is so much information and misinformation to feed off, one should be aware and understand and realize all the propaganda and crap being thrown around gets used to issue reports, statistics & articles.

I do like your statement of “accurate & horribly misleading”

I totally disagree that the article is “ill-timed”
Do you base your comment one the premise that LPS is 100% correct therefore the article is flawed/incorrect ?
I know for a fact that the way information is reported gets twisted and skewed to meet someone’s agenda.
a) The foreclosure numbers/filings reports are completely misleading and inaccurate.
b) Using the median home price as an important statistic is foolish.
c) Believing the govt released numbers for many things (such as unemployment & inflation) is simply idiotic; yet these last 3 things are relied upon heavily as though they are totally accurate and came from an ethical source without a hidden agenda.

Most people are ‘trading’ on the same inaccurate information. You can make a fortune by being right about how the ‘inaccurate information’ is going to be released & you can lose a fortune by being spot on with the truth/reality.
***********************
BG, you made my point for me. There are always people who want to point to Carmel Valley and west of I-5, because there are no price reductions or much inventory, blah,blah,blah.
My perspective is the overall national picture of the nonsense that is going on and the big problem that is looming, although the politicians will do almost anything to prevent what really needs to happen to fix the ‘problem’

As the article states, there are different perspectives from the internal watchdogs & the politicians.

[Coronita]

.

[SK in CV]

[quote=HLS] I totally disagree that the article is “ill-timed”
Do you base your comment one the premise that LPS is 100% correct therefore the article is flawed/incorrect ?
I know for a fact that the way information is reported gets twisted and skewed to meet someone’s agenda.
a) The foreclosure numbers/filings reports are completely misleading and inaccurate.
b) Using the median home price as an important statistic is foolish.
c) Believing the govt released numbers for many things (such as unemployment & inflation) is simply idiotic; yet these last 3 things are relied upon heavily as though they are totally accurate and came from an ethical source without a hidden agenda.

[/quote]

I don’t think LPS numbers are 100% correct, but they’re consistent with the CORE logic numbers, and I don’t think either has an agenda other than getting their numbers as accurate as possible. Neither of them is precise, but the value of their reports is in identifying trends. And the trend in the number of delinquent loans is down.

Can you explain why or how either of those reports are misleading or inaccurate? Keep in mind, I’m looking at trends, not precise numbers.

Your comment about using median home prices is a complete non-sequitur. I haven’t, and neither do either of those reports.

Neither have I used government numbers for unemployment or inflation, but similarly, their value doesn’t lay in individual numbers, but in trends. And the unemployment rate is flat to falling, and inflation outside of housing is virtually non-existent.

The article implies we are at near crisis levels. Something horrible could happen if all of a sudden all these delinquent loans hit the market as foreclosures. But the risks of that happening have clearly fallen over the last 4 years, and most all indicators of future economic conditions would lead to a conclusion of future diminishing risks. The economy is always at risk created by black swan events. But excepting events like that, what substantiation exists for calling out this particular potential crisis now? Is there an agenda in doing so?

[The-Shoveler]

Oh come on flu,
I was just going to say, that would probably not even cash flow:
235K financed at 6% (investor rate) would be about 1.4K a month add in Taxes and insurance + HOA and your getting close to 2K maybe 2.2K a month expense.

[HLS]

[/quote]
Can you explain why or how either of those reports are misleading or inaccurate? Keep in mind, I’m looking at trends, not precise numbers.

Neither have I used government numbers for unemployment or inflation, but similarly, their value doesn’t lay in individual numbers, but in trends. And the unemployment rate is flat to falling, and inflation outside of housing is virtually non-existent.

The article implies we are at near crisis levels. Something horrible could happen if all of a sudden all these delinquent loans hit the market as foreclosures. But the risks of that happening have clearly fallen over the last 4 years, and most all indicators of future economic conditions would lead to a conclusion of future diminishing risks. The economy is always at risk created by black swan events. But excepting events like that, what substantiation exists for calling out this particular potential crisis now? Is there an agenda in doing so?[/quote]

Statistics are manipulated which create the data needed to determine the ‘trends’ that you refer to.
I’m just as concerned with the precise numbers because people believe them as they are released.
I disagree that future economic risk has been diminished. I think that the risk is greater than ever.

1.The foreclosure COMPARISONS that are reported are a complete joke yet are used and analyzed by virtually everyone EXCEPT the people who really understand what is going on. It’s easy to fool everyone when fools are in charge.
The entire process of selectively manipulating the process creates completely useless comparisons.
COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS. When’experts’ repeat this blather, it becomes even clearer to me how clueless these ‘experts’ are.

2.Unemployment reports are another joke. the current U-6 is 14.3% far worse than the sub 8%
that the govt & media repeat like it was gospel.

Maybe black swan events aren’t really black swan.
The govt interference & manipulation to keep a ‘black swan’ from becoming a recurring event is VERY real.
The ‘potential crisis’ is not just being called out now, it’s been talked about for the last 8+ years by a tiny minority who just may realize the risks that 99.9% of others refuse to acknowledge, even if it is a remote risk.

For many, many people, their personal situation is far worse than it was at the end of 2008; yet according to the ‘trends’ that you are accepting one would believe that the horizon is rosy and ‘we’ have turned a corner.

I’m extremely skeptical of the reports and trends that are released when I know of many individual situations that are diametrical. I disagree that risks have clearly fallen over the last 4 years. For many people, it has never been worse, and about 10 million people have died in this period so their situations are no longer considered.

With any reports that get released using manipulated statistics, it’s garbage in and garbage out.

It’s always possible to view stats and trends with an alternate perspective if one wants to, rather than just blindly accept what ever gets released, reported and repeated without really understanding the content and how data was compiled.

[SK in CV]

[quote=HLS]
Statistics are manipulated which create the data needed to determine the ‘trends’ that you refer to.
I’m just as concerned with the precise numbers because people believe them as they are released.
I disagree that future economic risk has been diminished. I think that the risk is greater than ever.

1.The foreclosure COMPARISONS that are reported are a complete joke yet are used and analyzed by virtually everyone EXCEPT the people who really understand what is going on. It’s easy to fool everyone when fools are in charge.
The entire process of selectively manipulating the process creates completely useless comparisons.
COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS. When’experts’ repeat this blather, it becomes even clearer to me how clueless these ‘experts’ are.

2.Unemployment reports are another joke. the current U-6 is 14.3% far worse than the sub 8%
that the govt & media repeat like it was gospel.

Maybe black swan events aren’t really black swan.
The govt interference & manipulation to keep a ‘black swan’ from becoming a recurring event is VERY real.
The ‘potential crisis’ is not just being called out now, it’s been talked about for the last 8+ years by a tiny minority who just may realize the risks that 99.9% of others refuse to acknowledge, even if it is a remote risk.

For many, many people, their personal situation is far worse than it was at the end of 2008; yet according to the ‘trends’ that you are accepting one would believe that the horizon is rosy and ‘we’ have turned a corner.

I’m extremely skeptical of the reports and trends that are released when I know of many individual situations that are diametrical. I disagree that risks have clearly fallen over the last 4 years. For many people, it has never been worse, and about 10 million people have died in this period so their situations are no longer considered.

With any reports that get released using manipulated statistics, it’s garbage in and garbage out.

It’s always possible to view stats and trends with an alternate perspective if one wants to, rather than just blindly accept what ever gets released, reported and repeated without really understanding the content and how data was compiled.[/quote]

Precisely how and why are the statistics selectively manipulated?

Why is the risk today greater than it was 5 years ago?

Why are the unemployment trends, whether the base number or the U-6 a joke? Both are on a downward trend (June U-6 being an exception).

It seems your whole premise is that you don’t believe the data because you have nothing more than anecdotal evidence that is contrary to the data. I strongly suspect that the data sample used as the basis of these monthly numbers is substantially larger than your anecdotes. Larger the data sample, the more accurate the results. Do you think that is not true?

(And I do understand how to read data.)

[CA renter]

Jumping in here…

The statistics on foreclosures are manipulated because many lenders have simply stopped foreclosing on many people who would have been foreclosed on in times past. Additionally, asset prices are artificially high because interest rates are artificially low, pushing more and more people further out on the risk curve than they would have been without all of the manipulations (repeating the same mistakes that caused the “financial crisis” in the first place). This has been keeping foreclosures off the market, too, either by enabling people to sell instead of being foreclosed on, or by enabling them to refinance to lower and lower rates (which I don’t think is a bad thing, it’s just not the norm, historically-speaking).

As for employment trends, most people I know are making less than they were in 2008, and many of their jobs are also less stable than they once were. More people who want to be employed full-time are being employed part time, and they are often under-employed, as well.

People have been watching their incomes go down or stagnate while the costs of basic goods and services have skyrocketed — so many have lost a lot of purchasing power since 2008.

The unemployment numbers are skewed because the participation rate has declined rather dramatically…and these numbers still don’t include those who are under-employed or who are employed part time, but want to work full time.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/

————

Once upon a time, people believed that “inflation” would make their earnings go up, but that lie has been largely put to rest. Instead, it will make the cost of living/asset prices go up while wages stagnate or decline, especially if we don’t do anything to stop the race to the bottom in the “globalized” economy.

Just my 2 cents, but I have to agree with what HLS has been saying. I think that there are much larger risks out there than most people are willing to acknowledge.

[SK in CV]

[quote=CA renter]Jumping in here…

The statistics on foreclosures are manipulated because many lenders have simply stopped foreclosing on many people who would have been foreclosed on in times past. Additionally, asset prices are artificially high because interest rates are artificially low, pushing more and more people further out on the risk curve than they would have been without all of the manipulations (repeating the same mistakes that caused the “financial crisis” in the first place). This has been keeping foreclosures off the market, too, either by enabling people to sell instead of being foreclosed on, or by enabling them to refinance to lower and lower rates (which I don’t think is a bad thing, it’s just not the norm, historically-speaking).

As for employment trends, most people I know are making less than they were in 2008, and many of their jobs are also less stable than they once were. More people who want to be employed full-time are being employed part time, and they are often under-employed, as well.

People have been watching their incomes go down or stagnate while the costs of basic goods and services have skyrocketed — so many have lost a lot of purchasing power since 2008.

The unemployment numbers are skewed because the participation rate has declined rather dramatically…and these numbers still don’t include those who are under-employed or who are employed part time, but want to work full time.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/

————

Once upon a time, people believed that “inflation” would make their earnings go up, but that lie has been largely put to rest. Instead, it will make the cost of living/asset prices go up while wages stagnate or decline, especially if we don’t do anything to stop the race to the bottom in the “globalized” economy.

Just my 2 cents, but I have to agree with what HLS has been saying. I think that there are much larger risks out there than most people are willing to acknowledge.[/quote]

CAR, as I said before, I haven’t cited any foreclosure statistics, only delinquency statistics. Have they been manipulated?

I’ve also cited trends, not hard numbers. Is there any evidence that the number of houses that could be in foreclosure is higher now than it has been in the recent past? Beyond that, I would argue against the assertion that the numbers of foreclosures are being “manipulated”. Lenders are horrible at dealing with distressed assets. That’s not a new phenomena, it’s been that way for decades.

As I also said before, the employment trends are also improving. There are not more unemployed people now than a few years ago, there are fewer. It still sucks, but that doesn’t make it worse now than 4 years ago.

In agreeing with HLS, you’re arguing that the housing market is at a higher risk of imploding today than 5 years ago. The fact is, the housing market DID implode 5 years ago. I’m not arguing that there is no risk of it happening again. Only that the statistics cited aren’t evidence that we’re at higher risk today than 5 years ago. They all point to lower risk.

[HLS]

SK,
I’m sure that you know how to read data.
I’m not sure that you understand the meaning of the information gathered to provide you with this meaningful data and thus your contention that the trends are improving.

Lie 10 times, then 9, then 8, it certainly indicates that the trend is improving.

There is no point in discussing this with you, you are the final word.

You know how to read data. You stated that an article written about an official report issued in May 2013 from the highest level possible is ill-timed and you have drawn your own conclusions, therefore any other view is incorrect.

If I said that CAR was 1 in a million, it would mean that there are about 314 other people in this country that get what I am talking about. That might just be accurate.

Enjoy your govt manipulated, misleading statistics and charts. Continue on with the trends that you believe are accurate and I hope that this serves you well and continue on with your agenda of support to the propaganda.

[HLS]

Here are some statistics that are about as useful to me as the foreclosure comparisons, draw your own conclusions.
I’m sorry that I don’t have time to provide additional data for you to determine trends.

99.999% of people who died in the last 12 months were breathing before they died.

100% of people who turned 21 in the last year, were 20 on their previous birthday.

98% of people who died in the last 6 months either ate carrots, bananas or watched TV in the 30 days preceding their death.
********
The complacency about the economy and faith in ‘the recovery’ is a severe case of hypostatization.
It was only a mild case around 2006 when virtually everybody though that their house was really worth what it was selling for.

I will give the govt credit for creating the illusion that the economy has improved, we have turned a corner, and are well on the road to ‘recovery’ (WTH that means)

Most people are either brainwashed or delusional, complete ignorant and unaware of the risks ahead that someday cannot be avoided.

The current administration is doing an outstanding job of kicking the can down the road.
This has nothing to with the party, the previous administration was just as inept.

Commitments and unfunded liabilities have possibly never been greater. The cost to perpetuate this illusion has been many trillions of dollars, and is far from over.

There are far greater problems ahead for many than they faced in the past, regardless of the ‘trends’ being reported today.

Eventually the problems will cease to exist, however, eventually we will all be dead.

[SK in CV]

[quote=HLS]SK,
I’m sure that you know how to read data.
I’m not sure that you understand the meaning of the information gathered to provide you with this meaningful data and thus your contention that the trends are improving.

Lie 10 times, then 9, then 8, it certainly indicates that the trend is improving.

There is no point in discussing this with you, you are the final word.

You know how to read data. You stated that an article written about an official report issued in May 2013 from the highest level possible is ill-timed and you have drawn your own conclusions, therefore any other view is incorrect.

If I said that CAR was 1 in a million, it would mean that there are about 314 other people in this country that get what I am talking about. That might just be accurate.

Enjoy your govt manipulated, misleading statistics and charts. Continue on with the trends that you believe are accurate and I hope that this serves you well and continue on with your agenda of support to the propaganda.[/quote]

You realize the silliness of your argument? You call the numbers manipulated and then cite them as evidence of a crisis. The very “manipulated” numbers “from the highest level possible” come from the very same source that shows the improving trend. This feels much like those adorable AT&T commercials, asking the children which is better, more or less? There are “less” delinquent loans today than 4 years ago. Do you dispute this? If so, cite your evidence.

[SD Realtor]

Some of those ATT commercials are pretty funny.

[Author]

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