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SK in CV
Participant[quote=spdrun]
Interestingly, high dollar has been exactly a harbinger of a poor economy since 2008, since it meant a rotation into cash from other assets.[/quote]
No, it hasn’t. Again, maybe wishful thinking.
Participant[quote=spdrun]New home construction/permits. (down)
Foreclosures in the Northeast. (up, actually up even in CA, though not in SD)
August jobs report. (creation way down)
Active property inventory (yes, even in SD). (up)
30-yr rate jumped 0.25% after Wednesday.
Dollar index is massively up since Fed tapering started.Once QE is done, good news will no longer be bad news and vice versa.
I’m traveling this week. I’m paying prices that are slightly less than 2011-12 for hotels and car rentals. Not indicative of good demand.[/quote]
Not really trends. Foreclosures and troubled loans at the lowest rate in more than 7 ears. Long bonds pretty much flat over the last 15 months. Dollar up is hardly a sign of a declining economy. Job creation continuing strong, headed towards more than 3 million new non-farm private employment. August was only mediocre in comparison to June. YOY increases in residential RE prices across the country. Oh, and hotel RevPAR at it’s highest level in 14 years. GDP much higher in Q2 than Q1. And projections for similar numbers for Q3. Foreclosures up in August over July, but down 33% from a year ago. The economy could tank tomorrow. It’s not booming. But the plural of anecdote is not data. There is nothing in the data to indicate the economy is slowing. Even growing slower is not the same as shrinking.
Participant[quote=spdrun]
We’re already seeing rates going up and indicators slowing down.
[/quote]
Wishful thinking. Bonds are the same place they were 15 months ago. They’re gonna go down, but nobody wants to be the first one out. And I don’t know what indicators you’re looking at, but there’s nothing that’s trending down.
September 13, 2014 at 8:57 AM in reply to: How will unfunded “pensions” affect the local economy? #777996Participant[quote=no_such_reality]The lump sum payments are stunning.
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I suspect much of these “one time payments” are their own money they’re getting back. My brother retired after 33 years with the SDPD last year, and would have been 4th on the list if the search criteria would have been different. But more than 2/3 of what he got was his money that he elected to defer. More than 90% was eligible for rollover. His ongoing pension, while healthy isn’t astronomical, and is much less than he earned while working.
Edited to add: I DID change the search criteria, and sure enough, he came up with a huge pension payout. Not quite as much as I thought, but I know to the penny what he got, and for some reason it doesn’t include everything. But it does include both his DROP payment and most but not all, of his deferred comp.
Participant[quote=all]
This could be related to the decade-old anti-spam law, or CA taxation rules.[/quote]Could be, but it’s not. He’s not a CA resident, and he’s not a spammer. I think his main business is site design, search optimization, and site visitor stalking, nothing specifically to do with email. I suspect his privacy issues have more to do with knowing exactly what kind of tracking goes on.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]If you take a C student and move them to CV it’s not going to automatically make him/her an A student.
He/she has to want it.[/quote]Probably not. But if you put that C student into the CV household with two other kids that get all A’s, those C’s will improve. School performance is partly about the kids. It’s partly about the teachers. But it’s mostly about their home environment. How crowded back-to-school night is, is a better predictor of school performance than the economic status of the community.
ParticipantInteresting topic, and I have absolutely no insight as to the value of a particular domain name. But I do have a client who owns hundreds of thousands of domain names. He buys and sells them in large bundles. Many, maybe even most, he’s registered himself. Some of them he’s had for many years. His holding costs are in the tens of thousands every year. He made a big sale last year of a big bundle of pot related domain names that he began registering over a decade ago, and had added some regularly. I don’t know how big that one sale was, but he described it as big, and his total sales were close to $200K for the year. So I’m guessing it was more than $25,000.
And it’s his side business. Main business he’s in is internet marketing. Weird thing is, he’s totally off the grid. His credit report is blank. He has no internet presence. All of his mail, personal and roughly 15 businesses go to a forwarder in North Dakota.
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]i think the plan is like bombing Dresden, you just make war so unpalatable that people give in.
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[quote=scaredyclassic]
I wonder if we killed more kids in Iraq or Israel in gaza. I bet it’s close.[/quote]I’m not sure exactly what the death toll is in Gaza from this current round, somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,200 last I heard. It’s been going on for a little over 3 weeks now. Almost 25,000 died during the firebombing of Dresden, over a 3 day period.
The number of child casualties in Iraq has been estimated as high as 50,000, out of highest estimates of a million total casualties.
The total number of direct casualties on both sides in the Israel/Palestinian conflict over the last 25 years is around 25,000. Solely for the purpose of adding some perspective, that 25,000 is dwarfed, by an order of magnitude, the more than 250,000 direct casualties in the last 3 years in the current conflict in Syria.
July 18, 2014 at 10:15 AM in reply to: OT: Battle Ground Zero: Murrieta: Invasion of America #776841Participant[quote=paramount]
Your problem is you bought into the propaganda hook line and sinker. If you look at my original post I am fully aware of this unconstitutional law.Are these supposed children/’dreamers’/refugees the only ones at the border? Mixed in with these ‘children’ are drug cartel members, coyotes, ms-13, etc…
Build the fence NOW![/quote]
Uh….there is a fence.
Do you have any evidence at all that there are more people sneaking across the border now than at any time in the last 3 or 4 years?
ParticipantI vaguely know the mother of this kid and first heard about it from her a couple days after he was busted. The saddest, and most ridiculous part of this operation, is that it targeted a kid that was never part of the drug culture in the school. He wasn’t one of the kids that was getting high every day, or partying every weekend. He wasn’t even friends with anyone that was part of that scene. In fact, he wasn’t friends with anyone. At least until the undercover cop arrived on the scene.
If I remember correctly, as it stands now, all charges have been dropped, and the parents still have a lawsuit pending against law enforcement and the school district.
Participant[quote=paramount][quote=SK in CV][quote=paramount]Bottomline IMO: This immigration invasion has all the hallmarks of an instigated and engineered crisis.
Texas and Arizona should call out the national guard to protect the border along their states.[/quote]
What exactly would you suggest that the national guard do? Escort these minors to Murrieta? You know they’re not sneaking across the border, right?[/quote]
1st of all, it is the federal govt’s constitutional obligation to protect/seal the border.
They’re doing ‘everything’ except the one thing they are supposed to do.
The guard will function as a deterrent, more eyes and ears while the fence is being built.
A fence along the entire southern border.[/quote]
Pay attention here. The thousands of minors that are crossing the border are not sneaking across. They have not been caught after entering the country. They have come to the border and presented themselves. Under a six year old law (that’s right, 6 years, under the previous administration, not a new policy), minor refugees from other countries are allowed into the country, and their status is determined after they’re already here. The border patrol is doing their job as proscribed by law. So again, I ask, what additional help could the national guard provide?
Participant[quote=paramount]Bottomline IMO: This immigration invasion has all the hallmarks of an instigated and engineered crisis.
Texas and Arizona should call out the national guard to protect the border along their states.[/quote]
What exactly would you suggest that the national guard do? Escort these minors to Murrieta? You know they’re not sneaking across the border, right?
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]I understand all the reasons why Poway is cheaper, SK. Do the Valle Verde and Green Valley area have “lush greenery with lots of trees?”
The reason I mentioned the Big Toys is because the OP posted this earlier in the thread:
[quote=NYMom]We’ve actually stayed in Carlsbad for a week at a rental house and I wasn’t thrilled with the area. It seemed very barren to me in the housing developments. I like lush, greenery and lots of trees and there were LOTS of mobile homes parked in driveways! LOL. The owner of the house said they moved because they’re kids were getting older and the schools there aren’t good. Now they live in RSF, but keep that house as a vacation rental.[/quote]
I haven’t been to the areas of Poway you describe SK, but you have to be honest here, many buyers like the bigger lots precisely because they CAN park all their toys on it and can’t leave them on the street due to the 72-hour limit ordinance for street parking for RV’s and trailered vehicles. Areas with big lots are a draw to this subset of buyers because commercial off-site storage by the month can be expensive. The residential areas I HAVE been to in Poway had a lot of RVs and boats, etc, both parked and stored.
If NYMom ends up putting Poway on her short list, that’s perfectly fine by me … but you must admit that it is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING like the place she described here that she wanted to live in. All it can offer her is her house and lot size (likely along with lengthy Mello Roos payments if the areas she is shopping in online and those recommended to her here are on the outskirts and “newer” construction). Oh yes . . . and it can offer her an exorbitant utility bill almost half the year and a school district that may very likely be forced into bankruptcy in the coming months/years.
Why did your kids have such a horrible experience in the Poway schools, SK? And were they in Elem, Middle or HS at the time?[/quote]
Yes, lots of greenery. In the area that I’m talking about, the homes are over 40, some more than 50 years old. Almost every one of them has been remodeled in the last 20. No MR. Where I lived in Green Valley, the HOA attempted to collect $50 a year. 80% of it was used for a neighborhood block party once a year. I never paid it. Utility bills were high during the summer, but at $300K to $600K below her target price, there will still be a pretty good trade-off.
Other than the village like feel, it has everything on her list.
My kids were there elementary through my son’s freshman year in HS. They didn’t fit in. CV was much more accepting of kids that were a little bit different.
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]
And Poway attracts the Boys with the Big Toys. They’re parked all over the place out there, albeit behind a 6′ high gate if the subdivision has an HOA.
[/quote]Stuff like this is why you get accused of describing communities that you know nothing about. There are some parts of Poway where there is a truck in every driveway. And parts where there are a lot more BMW’s and Mercedes than trucks, in communities that have no functional HOAs.
She can get everything she’s looking for in a house, for a lot less than her upper limit price wise in north Poway, in the Valle Verde and Green Valley area. My kids had a horrible experience in the schools, but they tend to produce very good results and most parents are pretty happy with the schools.
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