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last summer…that was before the credit meltdown. Are lenders still doing no down 100% financing. I wonder how many buyers have a down and can get into the discount prices.

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Can banks originate 1% loans –aren’t they borrowing at over 5%?

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Must ARMs reset? I know investments would suffer if they don’t make their money on these packaged loans…but would there ever be a scenario which the gov. could prevent a widespread resetting –since so much havoc has occured?

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There have been other posts that claimed there was months and months of inventory….plus, a continuation of building and no buying going on. How could inventory have stabilized?

Friday, August 31, 2007
San Diego County Inventory (Sales)
Tracking San Diego County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/01/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:220
7/31/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:131

01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)___01/2005: (3,324)
02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)___02/2005: (3,442)
03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)___03/2005: (5,018)
04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)___04/2005: (5,345)
05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)___05/2005: (5,141)
06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)___06/2005: (5,663)
07/2006: 23,385 (3,584)___07/2005: 14,176 (4,765)
08/2006: 23,381 (3,666)___08/2005: 15,240 (5,379)
09/2006: 22,710 (3,207)___09/2005: 16,081 (4,935)
10/2006: 21,692 (3,282)___10/2005: 16,490 (4,155)
11/2006: 19,831 (2,987)___11/2005: 16,072 (3,937)
12/2006: 17,223 (3,613)___12/2005: 14,591 (4,262)

Population 2007: 3.10 million
1/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:191
6/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:144

01/01: 16,260
01/31: 17,109 (2,772)___01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)
02/28: 17,544 (2,863)___02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)
03/31: 18,638 (3,218)___03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)
04/30: 20,122 (3,436)___04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)
05/31: 21,169 (3,385)___05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)
06/30: 22,268 (3,510)___06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)
07/31: 22,551 (3,106)___07/2006: 23,385 (3,584)
08/10: 22,636
08/20: 23,006
08/31: 23,518

All-time Record high inventory: 23,385 homes, July 2006.
All-time low inventory: 2,301 homes, March 2004.
Previous Record high inventory: 19,250 homes, July 1995.
North County Times 4/12/06

Population 1995: 2.66 million
Listing per population ratio 7/1995: 1:138
Population adjusted record high inventory: 22,174 homes.

[img_assist|nid=4665|title=SD Inventory|desc=|link=node|align=center|width=466|height=350] taken from:
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/08/san-diego-inventory-back-to-record-high.html

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Comparing China, which has gigantic underdeveloped rural areas and massive development/infrastructure needs, cannot be compared economically to the US, even though China’s rising economically, it’s not the same market.

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[img_assist|nid=4655|title=Japan Graph -Housing|desc=Here is a Japan house price graph. Taken from this: http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/Why_Bush%27s_Mortgage_Bailout_Plan_is_a_Bad_Idea.html|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=302]

try it here:
http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/Why_Bush%27s_Mortgage_Bailout_Plan_is_a_Bad_Idea.html

Excerpt:
“In the 1990s, Japan experienced a similar housing boom/price bubble. Home prices doubled, and in the largest cities, they tripled. And then everything began to unravel. The market began to crash. That’s when the Japan government made the terrible decision to intervene.

The result?

The market correction in Japan is still dragging on to this day. Because Japan’s Ministry of Finance was so eager to keep the banks that made bad loans from going bankrupt, they virtually assured that the country would be languished in a multi-decade recession.

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There are places in Europe where you pay 75% income tax. There are places in Europe where the “people” support an archaic monarchy.
Please….I hope we are not going in the direction of Europe, I don’t hold Europe up as a standard to aspire to.

100 year mortgages…that is indentured servitude. You are renting – plus you “own” pay property tax and upkeep on a crappy 100 year old outdated home?
What created this bubble market is hysteria and ridiculous financing, wasting investors money, a lot of it foreign.
I don’t picture foreign gov’ts trusting the US with their hard earned money for investment in sham mortgages in the future.

If Americans are stupid enough to buy into the 100 year mortgage – then we are truly finished. I think at that point we would be ready for revolution.

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Wages remain flat and for the median wage are not keeping pace with the “median” bubble price. So– it doesn’t really matter how high the price goes – if there are no buyers who can repay the loans. There is no more free-money financing. The government cannot infuse trillions of dollars into this or handout $200K to everyone for a home. It is a VERY different world than 30 years ago.

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You might be able to tell some people, ‘it’s a stupid time to buy or get a loan,’ but many people would still not listen. They would just get caught up in the hysteria of home buying and not understand the affordability issues, fearful that they would ‘miss their chance’ to own.

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The consensus seems to be that too much drinking caused the brawl and that re-evaluating alcohol on the beach policy (at least at that beach) might be a remedy.

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he said they will NOT rescue investors on Wall Street:
However, in a clear caution that policy-makers will not rescue Wall Street, Bernanke said the central bank should not shield investors from self-inflicted loss.

“It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve — nor would it be appropriate — to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions,” he said.

This was an important reference to the moral hazard policy-makers run if they insulate financial markets from errors, hence encouraging more risk-taking. However, he acknowledged the Fed had wider obligations.

“Developments in financial markets can have broad economic effects felt by many outside the markets, and the Federal Reserve must take those effects into account when determining policy,” he said.
(By Mark Felsenthal)
(Reuters) –

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When you say there could be a 60-70% correction…you are talking about a bottom, when do you think that would be?
What kind of prices do you mean…with or w/o inflation.

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Send an email to Bush:
http://www.congress.org/congressorg/mailapp/

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Same story –NYT:

How will this change anything in the long run? Even if they guarantee new/revised loans to delinquent borrowers…the interest rate would have to be so low, or term so long —how would the mortgage be profitable for the lender? (Oh I get it, it’s not the lender…it’s the taxpayer) Can the government or lenders really provide enough relief for the coming resets of the next several years? Are those who get into fixed 30 years w/ nothing down able to afford their $450K mortgage on a $60K income?

I think the tax relief necessary, if not completely fair. It’s seems reasonable. Only because of the current sham market values. But that’s probably inequitable for other homeowners, since everyone is not going to get the tax relief….hummmm….

I feel like this puts the thumb on those who have worked hard, saved for a down, etc… It’s pretty much like we have to coddle and baby sit these idiot borrowers.

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In light of your explanation….it appears that subprime has been re-defined in this current market. People think of it as a loan available only to those who could not qualify for a prime loan.

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