[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte]This took me 5 minutes to find. Model match sales on the same street
2007 – $575K
2009 – $440K

That almost a 25% haircut and I probably didn’t find homes that sold at the absolute top and absolute bottom so the max drop 2007-2009 probably approached 30% in that neighborhood.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Im not saying prices didnt go down, we all know they did. But the stats are heavily skewed by a changing mix that make it look far more sever than what actually happened on the streets.[/quote]

Home prices did drop drastically from 2007 to 2009 no matter how realtors want to spin it! I know talking about that will lose realtors a few home sales right now since prices are again at a peak, but San Diego has seen some drastic home value declines in the not-too-distant past. And prices will drop again! It may be in 3 years, 5 years, 10 years or more, but prices will certainly drop again at some point. A 30-40% drop is probably a once-in-a-lifetime event, but there will be other significant drops.

And the op on this thread was just dead wrong. Dead wrong.

[img_assist|nid=27518|title=Model Match 2007-2009 Price Decline|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=260][/quote]

Who would you rather be?

Buyer of house two weeks before market froze in august 2007 that saw it drop 25-30% over next 4 years, recover most of that by year 6 and now worth double what they paid for house they enjoyed with their family the last 15 years. And they refinance down to 2.75% so mortgage with insurance and taxes is now under $2k

Person that laughed at them from august 07 through 2011, expected even greater losses, thought 13 was dead cat bounce so didn’t buy during down turn. Bounced from rental to rental. Still in rental now paying $4k a month for a house like that.

Of course they could’ve timed things better but in the end even the guy that bought at worst possible time but held on is now much better off than permabear that never bought

And I don’t care what people do now. I’m not advocating one or the other. Just pointing out that in the long run which is what the OP was advocating things turned out rather well even for those with the worst timing as long as they held on

And at this point nothing will stop home sales for the foreseeable future. Lines out the door everywhere. I just sold one over $2m and while we were accepting the counter there were 3 more buyers that lost out trying to raise their bids. It’s astounding

[sdrealtor]

It’s on the ground right now. I’ll bend down and take a look

[sdrealtor]

Looking at stats is dangerous if you dont understand context. Here is an example that illustrates why. Imagine 5 houses that did not change in price

Before crash sales

1,2,3,4,5

Median is 3

After crash sales

1,2,3 (4 and 5 did not go on market because owners wanted to stay)

Median is 2

You just experienced a 33% decline in the median without prices changing. Im not saying prices didnt go down, we all know they did. But the stats are heavily skewed by a changing mix that make it look far more sever than what actually happened on the streets.

I used nicer parts as an example as I know those numbers at the tip of fingers but more modest areas like MM and SM did not drop like those stats either

At the end of the day, the markets froze up in FAll 2007 with most of the decline coming in only 2 years 08/09. IN 2010/2011 the markets were mostly flat (yes there was a period in 11 where they dropped a bit but overall mostly flat those two years). I dont care what charts say as I was out there selling a couple hundred homes and understood what was happening to prices of individual homes in ways the stats just dont accurately reflect.

Even if you bought at prior peak you are far ahead now. Could you have timed things better with perfect hindsight? Of course, but if you had the worst possible timing and hung on you still did great.

A house in my hood sold for 1.15M at absolute peak. At no time during the bubble would it have been able to sell for more than it did in JUne 2004. All the realtors laughed about it for years. The owner had a great job, could easily afford it the whole time, raised his kids there, loves it and is still here. THat house would sell around $2.4M now

Back in 2010 to 2012 when market was bottoming and buyers were coming back it was not easy to find a nice home. I warned people here for years that is what wold happen and it did exactly that way. There were few on the market and competition for them. It was never a free for all for buyers walking up to great houses and buying them easily. In 2013 the markets took off leaving many bears paralyzed with fear it was a dead cat bounce that never happened.

Many buyers that kept waiting for it to go down further got shut out and never bought in. We have a few of those here

If you focus on each word of what he said, yeah you can pick it it apart. But if you look at the big picture message of the market isnt going to collapse and will come back strong so its OK to find a long term home, get on with life and you’ll be ok. Well that proved to be correct

[sdrealtor]

The markets did not collapse. Nicer parts of SD went down just over 20%. He said at peak but fine to but if you’re gonna live in it long term. 15 years later prices are double what they were in 07. The 50% decline was in low end and skewed because it was heavily weighted toward distressed sales. Non distressed sales were no where near those levels. Job market did fine. That pretty much covers it

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scruffydog]At least there are listings in MM.
In the entire community of 92124 there are now ZERO listings.
Anybody care to guess how this madness ends?[/quote]

In fairness Tierrasanta is a very small market. Last year there were 252 sales as compared with MM which had 652 sales or the NCC (92009/92011/92024) which had 1914 sales. Its most similar in size to 92107 which had about 265 sales.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (8) –

New Pendings of 9 (12) –

Closed sales at 4 –

Current inventory at 7 (10) with median of 940K (770K)

<800 sqft home in escrow. Anything on the market is on less than a week or as long as it takes to sort through offers. One to three motnh rent backs are typically post closing.

With such low inventory the median asking jumps around a lot but just the same is about 20% higher than last year

One thing Ive noticed is the quality is improving. In the past most of the listings seemed to be old homes in drastic need of a remodel but thats shifting. Now its more flips, long time owners that upgraded but are relocating/downsizing or buyers in the 3 to 10 years who are moving up. I havent seen much of a move up seller/buyer market here in the past but that seems to be changing as lots can sell and walk away with 300-500K or more. Perhaps some are going to3 Roots

[sdrealtor]

About the same

New listings 12 (20) – running about half of last year

New Pendings of 18 (16) – multiple over asking buyers

Thats -6

Closed sales at 8 –

Total houses for sale 24 (52) with median of $2.4M ($1.8M)

So much demand with such limited inventory. Pretty much every sfr goes 10%+ above asking.

A few anecdotes from the streets. Finally got one. House listed at 1.9 was in escrow at 2.1 and fell out. I knew where some other recent comps were gonna be which supported much higher. My client got it for 2.2 and while we were signing there were other buyers trying to jump even higher. IN amonth or two this should like a deal.

A guy I know listed his house for 2.5M. I thought it was a low and would go quite a bit a higher. Friend of friend asked me about it. I told my friend to tell his friend it will go for $3M easy. It went for $3.5M. NO matter how mispriced it was someone paid $1M over asking. Never would have happened before

The median listing price was 1.8 last year and is 2.4 now. Thats the market.

Here’s one prediction. With the market as tough as it is lots of agents arent gonna make it. Younger agents will find other work and with soaring rents willmove in with friends. Old time agents will look at their homes worth $1 to $3M cash out and call it day retiring to the desert, AZ, TX, FLA etc with the proceeds. I think the thinning of the ranks will happen over the next two years. But yours truly is prepared for whatever comes and aint going anywhere:)

[sdrealtor]

Its absoultely bonkers here and no one saw what is happening coming when it did. I always expected a steady climb up for decades but the last couple years have been nuts.

I just got back from Southeast Florida and its nuts there also though not as crazy as here. The entire country seems to have shifted its mindset towards real estate

[sdrealtor]

Welcome back Dawg! Time has been oh so kind to you

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scruffydog]I did not state that everyone should run out and buy real estate today – unless you love the property and are going to live in it awhile. I’m guessing we are at a cycle peak – prices will be flat for awhile. What I am trying to convey is that the market will NOT collapse as many of you want. The economy and most importantly the job market remain very healthy and wishing it were not so will not change reality.[/quote]

Welcome back Old Dog! Im gonna have to go back and read through the whole thing when time permits. Time only gets kinder to the old dog! Within 2 years of his post the market had pretty much bottomed and turned in 4. Now 15 years later it is about double what it was 15 years ago. What do the say about that guy who laughed last?

[sdrealtor]

This is not fantastic

[sdrealtor]

I signed up a while ago as its recommended to once you hit 50 to check out earnings record. There was a nice bump this year. My current plan is to wait until 70 assuming I make it. Its a surprisingly nice projected benefit. With everything paid off I could actually pretty much live on it if I had to as all will need to pay for is food and medicare supplements. Fortunately that is nowhere near the case

[sdrealtor]

Getting worse

New listings 7 (17) – just keeps getting tighter

New Pendings of 12 (34) – could sell 5X easily if we had it

Thats -5

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 26 (42) with median of $2.585M.

Single family under $1M firmly in rear view mirror. Everything under $2M currently on the market is less than one week and will sell as soon as they can sort through offers. Maybe next week

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (6) – back to last year

New Pendings of 5 (4) – still nothing to buy

Closed sales at 5 –

Current inventory at 7 (13) with median of 900K

With the exception of the <800sf 2/1 everything is on the market less than a week and will sell quickly

Market seems to be appreciating steadily but not in huge jumps

[sdrealtor]

I see that everyday. You’ve been grounded

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