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sdrealtor
Participant[quote=deadzone]And talk about axe to grind, here you go attacking me again just for reporting the reality of the situation. Just like SDR. Just because you own a bunch of real estate it turned you into a dick. Hey stop shooting the messenger. At least with tech stocks tanking, there is no reason you can’t sell whenever you want.
When did I ever say I wished financial pain on you? To the contrary, I am trying to help you guys by alerting you to get out of tech and real estate stocks. Just because you don’t like the message you attack me, stop being a dick![/quote]
Call us what you want but you are a coward. You had one job and you failed. I’m at the point where the base of my financial pyramid is set. I can play with some fun money and invest in risky things but I’m mostly conservative. I took the chances when I was in my 30s and 40s and could comeback from mistakes. I’m well past my peak earning years and just enjoying the fruits of my labor. You were too scared to take any risks. You believed you could out think the market rather than making moves that made financial sense a decade ago.
Tell me I’m wrong? Tell me you wouldn’t buy a house 10 years ago if you could go back in time. You failed and stop blaming us. You thought you were smarter and you were too scared
Ok your turn to go on the attack for me reporting the reality of the situation
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]Who said I’m looking to buy a house?
I just want to see asset prices return to their organic, free market, not Fed induced bubble prices. That will be better for society in general. Perhaps there will be some pain along the way but so be it.[/quote]
I’m confused, if you are not looking to buy, then why do you wish pain on people? That’s pretty evil. I thought at least the evilness stems from personal gain (ability and opportunity to finally buy a house). However, if it’s not for personal gain, then it’s just pure evil to enjoying seeing pain and cheerleading for the pain.[/quote]Why do you believe rooting for lower housing prices is wishing pain on others? Do you not believe lower, more affordable housing is a good thing for society? I only wish pain on greedy investors and others who engaged in risky, leveraged behavior, the ones responsible for this current asset bubble. Clearly you are one of those investors so your definition of “pain on others” is quite biased.[/quote]
Yet another pathetic lie! I am neither a greedy investor nor engaged in risky behavior and I actively discoiuraged risky behavior but you wished pain on me. Where is the love?[/quote]
I know you are not one of the greedy investors nor responsible for this mess. I just wish pain on you because you are a douche (just kidding I don’t wish pain and suffering for you or anyone on piggington, but you are a douche!).
And I never once claimed you were one of these greedy investors. But you sure like to defend them and you sure get butt hurt when I talk about market crashes. If you are sitting in such a great position, why does that bother you? What do you care if home prices go down 40%?
If you were really a RE agent, you should want more inventory and more selling, at any price. The current mess of a situation is bad for the vast majority of the people and certainly horrible for the RE agents business.[/quote]
I don’t control the market nor do I want to change the market. It is what it is and I just do my best to guide myself and clients through it
You keep saying it’s bad for the vast majority but ignore when I say nearly 70% of the country are homeowners. That’s the vast majority. Math is math
ParticipantIt looks like the tech wreck will continue. Robinhood has disappointing earnings
Participant[quote=JPJones][quote=sdrealtor]Didn’t someone predict this here two months ago? I wonder who?
Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-doubles-as-interest-rates-hit-the-highest-since-2009.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.MessageIt’s only just the beginning! Bring on the adjustables![/quote]
Damn…I didn’t think you’d be wrong, but I didn’t want you to be right.“Oh no, not again.”[/quote]
lol and only just the beginning
Participant[quote=ncsd760]Honestly if the higher-end Starboard/Colrich/Centex in LCO are fetching low 3s I don’t see why a dolled up Shelbourne/Davidson on Camino Serbal wouldn’t be able to reach the same. LCO is really only 2-3 years newer than LCV (unless we’re talking about Oaks North).
However, I have a personal vendetta against the bigger KHov houses in LCV but I doubt any of the newbies moving in even care about builders. Does that stuff even matter these days? I feel old.[/quote]
And I think LCV is a superior location, with generally better lots and an overall nicer community feel than LCO. When I bought mine I knew it was a crappy build but at the same time beleived that over time no one would care about the builders anymore which they dont. I thought it would come down to BR/BA count and sq footage plus lot so I grabbed a 5 BR on a big lot. When we bought our homes they were probably 50% land value and now its gotta be 70% so that was a good call.
I also knew that they stopped building around here for the most part in the late 80’s when homes were rarely much more than 2200 to 2400 sq ft until they started bulding again in the late 90’s. I thought move up sized homes between 2500 and 3000 sq ft would fare very well. That is the perfect size to get everything you need into a 4 BR without being squeezed. Anything larger and you are just making rooms bigger and adding more hallway/non-usable space.
Then we had the bubble and everything being built was 3500 to 5000 sq ft. If you look around the area there are very few homes between 2500 and 3000. Most are smaller/older or bigger/newer. LCV is full of the perfect mid market sized home for the area in a great location so it wil always have a relative premium
Sorry for the sidetrack but to answer your question, no one except us original folks care aout the builders anymore. And Im from Jersey so I know KHOV is basically KB on the east coast. They acquired a higher end builder out here and created a new identity for themselves here but I suspect its the same old KHOV
Participant[quote=profhoff]Another eye-popper. Here’s a flip on Eolus in Leucadia listing at nearly $2000/sq ft. $4m for a small, tight house basically on the freeway. But hey, nice outdoor space…
I think Eolus is fine, its Orpheus thats the problem child. Over the years Ive seen homes and lots sit and struggle on Orpheus. This one should be fine and sell relatively quickly
ParticipantSo where are you looking? Just curious even though I kind a know where you’ll probably end up
Participant[quote=DaCounselor]A few months ago we talked about maybe seeing a spring close around $2.5 mil on a big boy 3500 sq. ft on Camino Serbal, and we end up getting one on sub 2800 sq. ft. at $2.44 mil. Who built that, Centex? All cash. Why the quick turnaround from last year’s sale?
Now it feels like $2.75-$3 mil for a big one on Serbal is in the cards before the end of the summer.[/quote]
That’s Centex Plan 4. No idea why they left but they walked with bank
Speaking to some other agent friends they felt for some of the best homes in LCV Mid 3’s were possible. I was flabbergasted but they do as much here as anyone. They shake their heads as much as we do
ParticipantDay of golf but ran the numbers and even in the face of what feels like slowing demand the market here tightened.
New listings 20 (23) – back up as we get past tax season and head to May
New Pendings of 21 (35) – pretty much in line with most of this year but well below last year with limited choices. If we dont get more inventory its gonna be tough to hit 30+ a week
Thats -1
Closed sales at 25 –
Total houses for sale 42 (48) with median of $2.53M ($1.997M)
Looks like atypo last week as my spreadheet shows 44 last week and inventory down by 2 week over week. I know its rising in places like Oceanside, Vista and Escondido but not here. That could change but it hasnt yet.
I just did a quick check of what I consider the bread and butter house around here which is a relatively affordable 4BR over 2000 sq ft. I chuckled when I realized I set the limit at $2M. At the moment there are 5 of them with the lowest at 1.6M and 2 at 1.99M (at least one of which will sell over $2M). There are 5 in coming soon status which is about normal.
Next week is when we typically see the beginning of the influx of relo buyers and the shelves are pretty bare. Hoping there’s a bunch of inventory coming later this week and next.
There is no question demand has slowed but there is no question that it still far outweighs supply here. Here’s hoping we start seeing 30-40 a week soon
A few notable closed sales
Listed at $6.995M this closed for $7.65M. A bidding war for a $7M house? Really?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1540-Gascony-Rd-92024/unit-1/home/4062911
New record for the hood. This is a nicely remodeled home but at most slightly above average for the actual lot/location and model as compared to the hood. Wonder how much higher one of the cherries could go?
Update: this home sold for $600K more than it sold 10 months ago. The remodel was done by prior owners not these sellers.
Update 2; It was ALL CASH
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7902-Vista-Palma-92009/home/6389654
An expanded and remodelled twinhome (now 3/2 1,177 sq ft originally 2/1 827 sq ft) in what was once a 55+ community known locally as Geritol Hill. Its a beauty for what it is but $1.5M?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/220-Coneflower-St-92024/home/4097725
Participant[quote=DataAgent]We bought out current home in 2007. Interest rates were high for the time so we went with a 3/1 ARM. 3 years after we bought, interest rates were much lower. A few years later, we locked into a much lower rate. Although we are not gamblers, sometime it pays to take a little risk.
A few months ago (same house), we re-fi’d into a 10 year IO loan with cash out @ 2.6% rate. It’s hard to qualify for low-rate IO loans but we met all the requirements. We now have 9.5 years with a decent rate and a very low mortgage payment. A lot can happen in 9.5 years so we have lots of options.[/quote]
I bought mine in 99 with a 5/1 ARM at 7.125%. Over the years as rates went down I got into 30 year loans at ever lower rates until grabbing one near the bottom in December 2020.
I have a friend that bought around the same time and got a straight adjustable he never refinanced. He always had the lowest rate until he sold it about 5 years ago.
My best friend for years did I/O 5/1 arms until I convinced to lock into a 30 yr fixed.
This is all well and nice with rates going down all that time but it works in other cases also. Rates have risen quickly but in the next 5 to 10 years there should be opportunities to refi around the same or lower either in fixed or in another adjustable. Combine that with a lower loan balance then and higher income and there is a good case to be made for adjustable hybrid fixed loans like 5, 7 and 10/1 arms.
Participant[quote=limkotir][quote=sdrealtor]Didn’t someone predict this here two months ago? I wonder who?
Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-doubles-as-interest-rates-hit-the-highest-since-2009.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.MessageIt’s only just the beginning! Bring on the adjustables![/quote]
For those starter SFH (or likely condos / townhouses) buyers expect to grow their earnings in the coming years, ARM might not be a bad way to go to get into the SD market, then sell the property 5/7/10 years down the road via 1031 exchange into a destination house / zip area.[/quote]
Yes for a variety of reasons people rarely hold onto mortgages longer than 5 to 10 years. Now the low rates of the last few years may make that less common but most people sell or refi within 5 to 10 years at least once.
ParticipantDidn’t someone predict this here two months ago? I wonder who?
Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-doubles-as-interest-rates-hit-the-highest-since-2009.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.MessageIt’s only just the beginning! Bring on the adjustables!
ParticipantThe funniest part is DZ was the greediest one here! When home prices crashed he was elated at the pain others were feeling. But it wasnt enough and he wanted them to experience more. He wasnt content to buy his family a nice safe, secure place to live in at 30 to 50% off the peak. No! He wanted more pain for those irresponsible overleveraged homebuyers and investors. The homeownership rate in this country is nearly 70%! That is the vast majority of people.
Does this sound like a thoughtful person concerned about the great good for society to you? NO! It sounds like a bitter, jealous, selfish fool who missed out on the opportunity of lifetime!
Participant[quote=deadzone]Lower prices in general (housing, etc) will benefit the vast majority of people. The few remaining folks on piggington are all real estate investors of some degree so of course you are going to argue against the societal benefits of lower home prices. It is pointless to debate this with you people.[/quote]
What is pointless is to debate with an idiot who doesnt understand basic satistics. The homeownership rate varies from mid 50 to mid 70 percent across the country. This is the vast majority by definition and you fall in the minority in this country and the overwhelming minority here as in the only one
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