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sdrealtor
Participant[quote=matt]3m in LCV is certainly hard to fathom. I don’t see that happening again in at least the next 2 years.[/quote]
I wouldnt make that bet. Camino Serbal was much nicer and went a couple weeks earlier though longer escrow. It will be a bit of an upset if it doesnt go for more though someone who lost out on it may have gone all in on Morera after that defeat
FWIW generally speaking LCV has the best location, lots, amenities and friendliest community feel of the 4 Villages of La Costa neighborhoods but the oldest homes. Like for like they have always traded at a nice premium to the Oaks, Ridge and Greens
Participantx
Participant[quote=DaCounselor]https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7917-…
Also just noticed the Nueves house must have sold, wonder what he got after just paying $1.8 for it last month.
Also have seen two houses in Santa Fe Trails at around $1.6 mil for 2K sq. ft. just sitting. Not a fan of that neighborhood personally.
The big bomber on Corte Morero in LCV closed at $3.05 mil, looks pretty nice, but $3 mil in LCV, seems like yesterday i was trying to wrap my head around $2 mil there, oh well what’s an xtra mil LOL.[/quote]
Im guessing whatever they could but we’ll find out.
I think you mean SF Ridge not SF Trails. The issue with SFR is they are very 1980’s floorplans and there really isnt much flexibility to alter them. One is the 2 story 3BR which usually takes a little more time to sell. They are very much entry level homes for the size and area but pretty much are what they are. THe Ponderosa homes next door though older have more flexibility to alter the floorplans.
Participant[quote=Myriad][quote=sdrealtor]
System Access charge $39.44
SDCWA Infrastructure Access Charge $3.98
Usage (4 units at $3.39) $13.56Total bill is $56.42
[/quote]Wait, so you have no sewer charge? or you have a septic system?
My fixed charges alone are $112.[/quote]Recent bill was $58 and no sewer charge on water here. We are Leucadia Waste Water district and have a $378 annual charge on tax bill
FWIW my tax bill is about $7200. Thats $5600 based upon assessed value, $800 mello roos which should go away in several years, the roughly $400 sewer charge and another $400 or so of miscellaneous charges and bonds
ParticipantI think it’s gonna be tough to get back there but a few reasons but won’t say impossible. The ones recently sold are being converted into high end modern homes selling in the millions which sets floors. With sb9 any lot can be split and effectively any lot can be a duplex or triplex. Any dump on a big lot could become 6 units and where is that any more likely to happen than a quintessential cute beach town?
Participant[quote=ncsd760]2.57 to 3.1 in less than a year feels a little arbitrary now, doesn’t it? https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/209-Coral-Cove-Way-92024/home/22420675%5B/quote%5D
That’s about what the market had done. We’ll see if it sticks?
ParticipantWonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?
June 16, 2022 at 10:11 AM in reply to: Yes, the Fed matters a lot; nobody disagrees with that. #826155ParticipantI remember growing up and learning about mortgages and interest rates than finding out what a low rate my parents had from the purchase in the 60s. It was a game changer for them allowing them to pay for college for four kids and live in a house very inexpensively for three decades. That is the blessing so many of us have received
ParticipantI can look into it but kinda recall and some things are different now.
There is only one Summerhill and not much similar. They are also older and more prone to some long term owners. Generally speaking I think they held up better. I think the under 3K sf LCV homes did also as there arent many of those either in newer homes. Once LCV was built pretty much everything after was 3500 sf and bigger. There is a ton more of that. Those were also built at peak and likely had more upside and levered owners last time around.
This time around SH and newer homes (built in last 2 decades) of smaller sizes are still in shorter supply. But the bigger homes are now a decade or more old. Original owners have huge equity, massive potential cap gains taxes and should be in low rate loans giving them more staying power and incentive to stay this time than last. With that said in tighter times people tend to buy more what they need than what they want thus the lower end should do better
Participant[quote=ncsd760]The prices of condos/attached homes/zero lot line in the area astound me. Is it possible that the lower-end inventory — and I mean *relatively* since these units are closing in on 1mm and above in some cases — hold their ground more than the 4000sf tract homes? I can see demand for a 6 bedroom waning more than I can for a reasonable priced, low-maintenance attached home but also I’m not a realtor/broker and am just running off anecdotes.
For example, something in Summer Hill encinitas or Sea Point Tennis seems like it will be solid longer term even if we have “peaked”, no?[/quote]
I think with housing prices as high as they are a lot of people who want to live around here capitulated and bought attached housing. The bigger nicer units approximate the low end single families around here. I kind of saw this happening and about seven years ago had a client sell his old Oceanside one story in Rancho Del Oro that he kept as a rental and exchange into a Summerhill rental. It worked out extraordinarily well for him
The Summerhill homes are actually as large or larger than most of the Surrounding SFRs. I’ve long had a soft spot for them. Wish i owned one. Seapoint is more condo like and a step down from them IMO and don’t enjoy that location which is a really nice middle level sfr neighborhood around here.
As an aside my first home around here was in Seagate Village. After two years as conservative as I am I was looking to move up to Summerhill as the Fieldstone homes felt out of reach to me. Then LCV came and i pushed all my cards on the table moving up 2 or 3 steps instead of one. That turned out extraordinarily well for me:)
Participant[quote=evolusd]sdr – you mentioned realtors leaving the game due to low volume. Seems folks in the mortgage industry are hurting bad, if not worse. Refi volume down 75%, purchase volume down 50%. Lots of folks in that industry will need to find other work.[/quote]
No question. They’ll go first and harder. Refi market which is usually about 70% of volume evaporated this year. It will take longer for realtors
Participant[quote=Pbranding]Thanks SDR,
Are you noticing price decreases? I’m seeing a lot of it in poway/4s ranch/del sur areas.[/quote]I would say yes but with a few caveats. Some of those are shooting too high. The comps were achieved starting much lower and bid up powered by extremely low inventory. It only took one person willing and able to get that price and Ive sold some where there was only one person. No one knows where the market is and there is still plenty of demand. I think you have to start below the comps and see what the market will determine is right price now.
Lastly I think this Spring was pretty much a once in lifetime confluence of events. The last spurt never felt real to me and was more hysteria feeding on low rates. I would not be surprised to see us retrace back to the levels we started this year at not so much as a downturn but as a return to sanity.
Participant[quote=matt]It’s true that anyone sitting on a 2.5% mortgage is going to very reluctantly sell, particularly in beautiful San Diego – a market that is renowned for being impossible to get back into once you leave.
Investors that have ridden the capital appreciation wave may decide to cash in at this point of the cycle. The yields will not be there for any recent buyer.
Jobs will be key as well as the stock market and crypto (huge losses). If you purchased or HELOCed anticipating major RSU income you could be in trouble. If you are in a venture capital or growth start up that isn’t making money you could be in trouble. Fiscally responsible folk with steady income and well financed homes should be just fine. Let’s see what happens with inventory as we head Into the fall.[/quote]
Agree with most of this and dont really disagree with last part I just dont think that those in the last paragraph are leveraged and plentiful enough to have a material impact on the market. And if you are holding onto the house is likely one of if not your top priorrity in the majority of cases.
Again not saying we cant/wont go down I just think its gonna have to come from something else
ParticipantJust like in MM I was away last year and dont have year over year numbers here either
New listings 20 a little lighter than expected
New Pendings of 21 demand waning
Thats -1
Closed sales at 16 –
Total houses for sale 98 with median of $2.05M
(copied from MM monitor as its the same story)
This looks like it could be the beginning of a market shifting into stagnancy. The mainstream media is starting to write about this also. Demand is falling rapidly but new supply is also. We could settle in to a narrow range where volume is very low without much movement on pricing unless supply starts spiking.
https://money.yahoo.com/housing-market-h…
One thing to look for with low demand is the departure of many of my colleagues over the next couple years. Less volume, less paychecks for agents. This could and should happen regardless of what happens with pricing.
Today we saw two of the poster child brokerages for living off of public market money (Redfin and Compass) announce significant layoffs. Pricing of homes is not particuarly relevant to them. Sales volume is relevant to them and thats falling quickly.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/real-est…
Will be interesting to watch this all and I’ll be in my front row seat throw it all. Im built for this and not going anywhere
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