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sdrealtor
ParticipantI wasnt there so it is hard to say exactly what they said about the arms resetting and exotic financing. The concensus of those that I spoke with said when they were asked about the agressive lending practices, they felt that it would not be a huge problem……. Not sure I agree
ParticipantThanx and my feeling is that this is probably a little slanted version of what was said as interpreted by the RE industry. PS’s take on it was the complete opposite which pretty much is in line with what I said, which is you could interpret what you heard however you wanted to hear it based upon your preconceived notions.
As for PS, berating on the other thread I don’t beleive I attacked her. The people I spoke with said she was inappropriate in revealing too much personal information (not surprisingly) but they didn’t nor did I attack her questions or opinions. Personally, I was proud of her for making herself heard at this forum. Oh well, I guess you take away from my comments whatever you want based upon preconceived notions…hmmmm…heard that one before.
ParticipantHere’s a summary I received from my broker today…if true it does not bode all that well for are the bubble beleivers. BTW, I beleive PS was told it was unlikely she will be able to buy her house back for 30 to 40% less than she sold for. Maybe she can clarify this as I wasn’t there. Article as follows……….
San Diego’s real estate market “will continue to slow along its current trajectory,” and “significant declines in home prices are unlikely” from 2006-08, according to an Anderson Forecast report.
Home sales activity in San Diego County fell 30 percent since peaking in April 2004, while home prices hit a plateau and stayed there for most of 2005.
The forecast, a research branch of the Anderson School of Management at University of California, Los Angeles, has typically focused on economic predictions for Los Angeles County, California, and the nation, and San Diego represents a new local area for the forecast.
Ryan Ratcliff, an economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast, and Alan Gin, an associate professor of economics at the University of San Diego, wrote the report.
While several national real estate economists and analysts are projecting a soft landing for the real estate market this year, that “landing” arrived early in San Diego, and this latest report attempts to sort out whether this local real estate market will suffer a hard fall and harm the region’s economy.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast, Anderson School of Management and The Rady School of Management at University of San Diego participated in the first annual San Diego Economic Outlook Forecast Conference today at the San Diego Marriott Hotel and Marina to discuss the local forecast.
In 2005, the median price of a house was nine times higher than the median income in San Diego, and home prices have roughly doubled in the past six years when adjusted for inflation, according to the economic report.
Price appreciation, though, began to slow in November 2004 and December 2004, and median prices were flat for most of 2005, the forecast noted. The forecast refers to “that crazy B-word” – bubble – that has popped up in many real estate discussions as experts debate whether there will be a devastating burst in local or national real estate markets.
While the word “bubble” seems to suggest that it implies a “pop,” or a period of substantial home-price loss, the Anderson Forecast states that a bubble market is more a situation in which the market price of a home is out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset.
And while the report notes that the Advance Forecast “has advanced its opinion that the real estate markets in Southern California are in a bubble-like state,” it also states that this does not necessarily mean home prices will drop.
Christopher Thornberg, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Christopher Thornberg, a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, stated in a summary of the economic outlook, “Housing prices will not plummet … this is not a common characteristic of the end of a housing bubble. Rather they will remain largely stagnant for a number of years until the fundamentals manage to catch up with market prices.”
The forecast by Ratcliff and Gin states, “The central question for San Diego’s economy over the next several years is how this real estate slowdown will affect the wider economy,” noting that the future of San Diego housing markets presents “an interesting puzzle” – there is a low probability of a recession in the next two years though home prices in the area are out of line with such fundamentals as income and rent growth.
“Unfortunately, with no historical parallels to draw on for a recession-less housing slowdown, we can only make an educated guess. Arguments suggest that the answer is more slow growth: sales will continue to fall, but not by the 60 percent we saw in San Diego during the 1990-91 recession.
“Prices will stay flat, rising at or slightly below the rate of inflation – in essence, a pause of several years to let the fundamentals catch up,” the forecast states. “Residential real estate markets have a couple of tough years in store, but in the absence of a recession we do not expect to see a repeat of the mid-1990s.”
So does that mean a soft or a hard landing? The forecast calls for a mix of both: “a mostly soft landing – though harder than the first two years of this real estate slowdown.”
Construction employment is expected to drop at the end of this year, with declines of about 8 percent through the end of 2008. Taxable sales growth should also slow, though strength in tourism and professional services should boost the economy.
“This is a little bit more optimistic than the forecast for other Southern California counties, in large part because San Diego has already lived through two years of slowing real estate markets with little injury,” the forecast concludes.
The median price of existing homes in San Diego County has increased from $449,949 in first-quarter 2004 to $571,212 in first-quarter 2006, a gain of about 27 percent. Sales of existing homes have sunk about 33.8 percent from first-quarter 2004 to first-quarter 2006, and about 17.9 percent from first-quarter 2005 to first-quarter 2006.
Meanwhile, real personal income for area households has remained fairly level during the same period, increasing from $101,823 in first-quarter 2004 to $107,809 in first-quarter 2006 – a gain of 5.9 percent. Average real annual wages in San Diego were about $38,000 in 2005, which is below the state average of about $40,000.
Since 2003, the flow of people moving to San Diego from within the United States has turned from positive to negative, and high home prices are a likely contributor to this shift in migration, the forecast report states.
ParticipantNot really, just want to let you all know that PS defintely made her presence known…that’s all.
ParticipantOnce again I am not here to be baited into identifying myself. It’s really quite simple, a pilot can get a raise by increasing in seniority or being promoted when the company is struggling. Similarly, an agent gets more seniority (previous buyer clients sell and move up or out of area) and be promoted (a past client refers a new client). There first few years in the business this doesn’t happen. After a few years in the business it is happening to me.
BTW, Ipayone is getting slaughtered. All the real estate industry people that were founders left because the business model doesnt work. They have a revolving door of agents that quickly realize the comp plan is a joke. The CEO was a charlatan of the type I used to run into in the tech industry. His one goal is to build something with enough revenune that he can find a sucker to sell it to. It’s a bait and switch system and should disappear in a year or two.
Lastly, 842 properties have gone into escrow the last 7 days and countless others are likely in the midst of negotiating. Last year the numbers were about 20% higher but we are hardly at a standstill. Plenty of homes are still selling everyday.
ParticipantSORRY….wrong guy. Those are Jim The Realtor’s sales.
ParticipantLOL
ParticipantTalk about a meanspirited post demeaning someone for their lack of a grasp of the English language. You are showing your true colors.
ParticipantWhile you are scrolling back take the time to actually read my response which explains in simple terms how that is possible using a baseball analogy. Your Delta CEO example once again shows how little you understand about the business side of real estate. The question to ask is not how Delta is having a great year but rather how one of their pilots, flight attendants or baggage loader is having their highest earning year ever.
I havent figured out your agenda but you attempt to discredit me with outright lies (i.e. I am unfamiliar with the Cedar Fire or Shadow Zips) but I do have my theories.
You have no reason to question my honesty and I surely will not be as foolish as you were to disclose personal information.
ParticipantRelax everyone! I have no intention of disclosing pS’s identity. I’m smart enough to realize that all of her efforts to anger me are attempts to get me to disclose enough personal details about myself and my business so that she may figure out who I am. Not gonna happen. If I used my name, you would all accuse me of shilling for business which was never my intent. The fact that I hold my anonymity so dear only adds to my credibility in speaking straight forward and honest. I have to laugh about the paid NAR SHill comments..I’ve got my own conspiracy theory about PS. Coming soon…..you wont want to miss it;)
ParticipantBut you didnt end up in Poway..you ended up in Lakeside! Your very nom de plume (sp?) is a lie!
ParticipantTell your husband to sleep easy. I’m no more dangerous than a lap dog. I do wonder why you are making things up? I’m unfamiliar with the Cedar Fire…where did that come from other than your imagination. I have family in RB that stayed with me during the fires and watched soot rain down on my house for days. I’m unfamiliar with Shadow ZIPS…another figment of your imagination. It was your buddy the realtor who never sold anything that was unfamiliar with how they work. I was the one who clarified them. As for a website, i dont beleive in personal websites and have never seen them benefit anyone other than the website developers. Realtor.com provides my listings all the exposure they need along with my companies website. I work from referals and past clients, I dont need to spend money on things i know dont work. As for anonymity you can call me david Lereah from hear on out if it makes you feel better. If you’d prefer I can expose your identity but I know thats not what you or your husband would want. The truth is I’m a warm likeable guy with a huge heart and a large circle of friends. Nothing I’ve heard from you indicates you are anything but a bitter loner that whittles your days away on a computer.
ParticipantPersonally I prefer South Carlsbad/Encinitas a mile or two east which has the same great sunny weather, is in the same 2ndary school district as Carmel Valley, high test scores, more diversity (which is one of the major reasons why average test scores are a bit lower than CV) a very educated population, great high tech/bio tech jobs in the Palomar Airport business park area, great beaches, people from CV routinely drive up here to go shopping because there isnt much in CV, is very safe, has higher quality home construction with a variety of builders (CV is virtually monopolized by Pardee), larger lots, mature trees and a true community feeling with a history more than 25 years old that is lacking in CV.
If you hate to drive, CV does have a much shorter commute.
ParticipantLOL…you got me
Signed
David Lereah
BTW I did answer dumbass
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