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sdrealtor
ParticipantUnfortunately the MLS data only goes back to around 1996. I wouldnt know where to begin to find this data if it was even available.
ParticipantWhere in Tennesse? Sounds like an investment opportunity with all those former CA Homeowners taking their equity to the cheaper pastures in TN;)
ParticipantBugs,
I appreciate your experience in the last 2 RE recessions but respectfully disagree with your examples which seem to come out of thin air and use the logic which I pointed out was flawed based upon the recent history. If you find a flaw with my numbers please point it out. If you have an explanation as to why prices will fall differently than they have increased, I’d like to hear that also. But to change the direction of a well thought out and researched point that I was trying to make with arbitrary numbers does a disservice to us all.ParticipantI vote for SD Realtor because sdrealtor isnt here for votes or to make friends or find clients for that matter!
ParticipantSorry for the absence but it’s been a great Sunner on all accounts and my mind has been occupied with lots of other things than this board. When I get the time, I try to provide unique information and interpretations that come from my observations of what is happening on the streets not what is happening in the Ivory Towers.
ParticipantGreat question Bugs and the answer shocked me. In both 1998 and 1999 the search for homes listed as occupant=vacant was approximately 24%.
Thus, the truth is that we are pretty much running at close to the historical average of recent note.
ParticipantI think there is one part of this blanket statement which greatly influences how many fall in the last 2 categories. All ARM’s are not Suicide loans or Exotic loans. There are many ARM’s that are relatively safe. For example a 10/1 ARM that converts to a 30 year fixed at the same rate is not very risky. The real culprit is the Pay Option ARM’s that result in HUGE COMMISSIONS to Mortgage Brokers (I believe as high 3 points) that have 2 year prepayment penalties and buyers qualifying on low initial start rates. Someone taking out a 5/1 ARM in the last year is getting a rate within 1% of the 30 year fixed rate and will have a good chance of be able to deal with a reset in 3 to 5 years.
The answer to all of this is that we just dont know how many of the ARM’s fall into each category and how many of the TRUE Exotic/Suicide loans are in the hands of the most vulnerable.
BTW Lookoutbelow, Realtors to my knowledge dont push specific loan products (at least the ones I know). It is the lender who helps the buyer select a loan product. That is why as a buyer, you should NEVER do business with a combination Loan Broker/Realtor as the conflict of interest is HUGE! I also do not drive a leased expensive foreign car, a good old American Vehicle fully paid off is my ride of choice!
Participant10 to 20% in incentive ssounds about right from what I’ve seen. 10% incentives should be easy while 20% would be a big one to get.
ParticipantCorerction for my poor typo skills if you’re gonna quote me.
“I’d even say telling everyone that a 50% crash is in the bag is just as irresponsible as saying RE always goes up.”
ParticipantI take it you saw his w-2 and know what he makes and what his loan balance is? Also the loan I mentioned is not a Neg Am loan it is an I/O that converts into a fully amortized loan in 10 years at a guaranteed 6% rate. Perhaps his wife works and makes more than he does or he’s going to school for a better job or he comes into an inheritance or a thousand other scenarios. I just think its a bit irresponisble trying to spread the fear of God into people that could be fine without knowing the full details of their lives. I’d even say telling everyone that a 50% crash is just as irresponsible as saying RE always goes up.
ParticipantThe house was listed 1 year ago at $920K and has been steadily reduced. It was last listed at $800K and didnt sell in 180 days. They are on their 3rd realtor and the home is now vacant. There are 7 homes on the market, 4 expired listings and 3 cancelled listings. Only 1 house has ever successfuly sold on this street. It sold at $1.1M and one sale does not a market make. Lots of unrealistic pricing out there.
ParticipantJust another temptress trying to appeal to the new breed of buyer. Her statements are meaningless. How much you can negotiate is determined by how well the home is priced by the realtor. if its agressively priced it might sell at asking price. If its way overpriced $100K may be overpaying.
Participant“People who pay their own health insurance do so out of their after-tax pay, so $100K/year is about $75K after FICA and taxes, and $7200/year for health insurance is 10%.”
WRONG, Health insurance is tax deductible for self employed individuals whom are mostly likely to pay their own health insurance.
ParticipantGood common sense article. What I find interesting is that he’s in Temecula which is one of the outlying areas that will likely get hit hardest. My impression is that many working class folks who should be renters in SD went to Temecula and bought McMansions with 2% tax rates. iiiii Thats an area set for a real bust as many of the homeowners there probably should never have been homeowners to begin with.
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