[sdrealtor]

PerryChase,
Building is not as simple as you make it out to be in CA. All you are considering is building materials and labor. There is ALOT MORE THAN THAT! How about the roads and utility infrastructure that have to be built? How about all permits, governmental fees, affordable housing fees and environmental mitigation fees to name a few? A good rule of thumb I have heard is that land costs around here are typically at 1/3rd of the price of a home. I believe a buildable lot for a tract home in SD runs between 250K and 400K whereas land in TX is almost worthless in comparison. I’m sure someone on this forum has the expertise to step up with insight regarding this. Hopefully they will.

[sdrealtor]

Here are all the numbers and yes they are for SFH.

1998 24%
1999 24%
2000 22%
2001 21%
2002 18%
2003 19%
2004 21%
2005 24%
2006 23%

I ran the numbers for both and the numbers were 1 or 2% higher each year through 2003. In 2004, the numbers jumped to 24%, then to 29% in 2005 and 28% in 2006 so far.

I would hypothesize this is due to 2 factors. The first is the addition of developers new construction into the MLS which didnt really start until 2005 (i.e. they didnt need us before then to sell their product). The second and likely much more significant factor is investors/flippers. With appreciation gone, recent investors are getting out as they are not covering costs in contrast to long time investors that have positive cash flow. Also, the flippers hit the condo market much harder than SFH because it was cheaper to buy and easier to care for. I guess this is yet another reason that Condos will get hit harder.

[sdrealtor]

Radiology is an exception as films can be read anywhere with technology. Last time I checked a computer couldnt reach out and say cough!

[sdrealtor]

DZ,
I’ll check and will let you know. I suspect you might be looking at percentage increase and not dollars. A $100K condo going to $230K is a 130% increase. A $230K condo going to $460K is only a 100% increase. Personally I rather make 230K with a 100% increase than $130K with a 130% increase.

As for the prime LJ real estate that is an animal unto itself and along with RSF certainly not a playground for us lowly pawns. The ultra high end market is driven by the economy and stock market gains. When the stock market soared there was lots of funny money floating around so it wouldnt surprise me to see those markets soaring then. Thats more the exception than the rule and certainly not the domain of those of us around here.

I’ll check and will let you know.

[sdrealtor]

unfortuantely they live 3000 miles apart

[sdrealtor]

PS,
Lots of them are on the market as they have always been. SD is unique from many places in that you could always find a nice Single Family home for rent on just about any street. Where I grew up, single family homes for rent were virtually non existent.

How many rental houses are there where you grew up?

[sdrealtor]

PS,
When i get some time I’ll look back at 1998 to satisfy the masses here. It may take a day or two but I suspect I’ll find the same thing.

[sdrealtor]

Deadzone,
I live on the coast and it went up slowly between 1997 and 2001. The real appreciation started in 2001 contrary to what you said.

As for the base year, it doesnt really matter and I dont understand why everyone is so hung up on that. if there were good comparables starting then I would use them, unfortunately most of the nice homes around here were built starting in 1998 and didnt begin hitting the resale market in earnest until 2001.

[sdrealtor]

AN,
Besides the fact that Zillow data is extremely poor, the case you bring up is for differences in the impact of various areas. My point was that there are also substantial differences in the way home prices will be impacted WITHIN a specific area/city on a percentage basis. The $300 to $400K differences come from looking at historical sales in Encinitas/South Carlsbad which i know very well and can easily estimate what a house would sell for today. There is some wiggle room in the numbers (i.e. some in each price range do a little better/worse than average) but these are numbers I am pretty confident in as being representative. The big difference is that while Zillow is looking at averages, I am essentially looking at Same House Sales. I dont disagree with any of your comments about returns being great even at lower prices. I just wanted to point out that there are plenty of flaws in looking at averages when you cant buy an average house, you buy a specific house in a specific neighborhood at a specific price. Furthermore RSF, DM and SB are different than typical neighborhoods and dont behave the same. If you look at the others you see increases of $300 to 400 maybe a little less in a cheaper area like Santee.

[sdrealtor]

PS,

I chose 2001 for a reason which has nothing to do with when prices stopped making sense. it has to do with the availability of data. In most of SD there was very little new construction between 1990 and 1997. However, that changed dramatically in 1998. The higher priced asset classes which most of you would be interested in at some point in the future (i.e. homes currently selling for $800K and up) that I wanted to look at were mostly built starting around 1998. I chose 2001 to allow for these homes to start hitting the market after 2 years. If I start earlier, the homes currently over $1M are typically custom homes or beach properties for which it is much more subjective to say what a house sold then would currently sell for. For tract homes, it’s easy to look in an area you know well at a historical price and come up with a pretty accurate current value

[sdrealtor]

bob007,
Salary of dentists is not high considering they have one of the suicide rates. they also have much higher risk than you think because most dr’s are paid by insurance while most dentists relie on people to pay their own way.

[sdrealtor]

novice,
talking bout coincidence. 7/22 is my Father-in-laws b’day also.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

lindismith,
98 and 99 were about 24%. I’ll run the rest but it might take a few days. Mom’s not feeling good and I had to bring her to my house for a few days of TLC.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks Rich!

PerryChase,
I dont believe the base year really matters and if I went back a few years more I know the results would be the same. I chose 2001 for a reason as there’s always a method to my madness though I dont always explain it upfront.

In most of SD there was very little new construction between 1990 and 1997. However, that changed dramatically in 1998. The higher priced asset classes (homes currently selling for $800K and up) I wanted to look at were mostly built starting around 1998. I chose 2001 to allow for these homes to start hitting the market after 2 years. If I start earlier, the homes currently over $1M are typically custom homes or beach properties for which it is much more subjective to say what a house sold then would currently sell for. For tract homes, it’s easy!

I dont necessarily disagree with Bugs as I don’t have the historical perspective he does. I just asked for some kind of data/supporting analysis arguing this point not the numbers that he used which appear to arbitrary.

I also dont know of any areas down close to 20% yet from the peak. As a note, I dont consider 1 home selling for $100K higher than anything else the peak. To me the peak is a price level where multiple homes were selling at a given price level not 1 lucky sale (or unlucky in the case of the buyer!).

[sdrealtor]

The bit about an open house was just my sense of humor.

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