Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
sdrealtor
ParticipantIts a result of not being able to find comps to justify the price. Sometimes the house is truly better than the comps but there arent any usbale ones and sometimes the price is unjustifiable by any standard.
ParticipantHere is why that number is important. The questions that sellers used to ask is how much will my house sell for and how long will it take. I believe that I touched on this several months ago when I said sellers will soon start asking Can I sell my house at anything close to market value? The answer is increasingly, maybe not or you have a less than 50/50 chance. With such a high failure rate, people looking to move up with plenty of equity to do so will stay put. Most homes on the market will be motivated sellers which will drive down prices but inventory could moderate.
August 28, 2006 at 9:36 AM in reply to: Biggest Drops in 2007 and 2008; housing will fall 50% nominal terms #33663Participant🙂
ParticipantAppraisal issues are one thing creating problems. I have seen more and more deals fall apart because the house wont appraise at the sales price.
ParticipantPC,
Me thinks you are a bit naive! Real Estate transactions end up in mediation, arbitration and litigation every day. The dollars involved are too big for people not to seek out legal remedies.August 28, 2006 at 9:15 AM in reply to: Biggest Drops in 2007 and 2008; housing will fall 50% nominal terms #33652ParticipantPS,
All the points you make relate to the sellers distress rather than the buyer’s willingness to buy. I am looking at things from the buyer’s side which your comments ignored. The last 2 weeks I have been astounded at Open House attendance by people that are looking to buy. They are not buying but most have a price they are waiting for to be able to get the house they want and its not all that far off.The indicator I am looking at and seeing anecdotally is that this looks like it’s starting to play out exactly as it happened but in reverse. I didnt see this trend before but have seen it recently with great regularity. If you look at appreciation graphs the huge gains happened at the end of the boom and not evenly throughout. I am seeing these huge gains that occurred between Late 2003 and Early 2004 evaporate very, very quickly. Once these gains evaporate there will be alot of folks that can once again afford the homes they want. Will the buy them? I don’t know. But I suspect the declines will be slower after a big initial drop. I think the median could easily be down 10% or more by late 2006/Early 2007 and down 15 to 20% by this time next year.
I could very easily be wrong but this is my instinct. I am not attached to being right. I could pay my mortgage working as a Wal Mart Greeter. I have learned how to create wealth in my career many ways. Real estate is but one of them. I currently have business opportunities in development that may lead me away from RE. I work in RE mostly because I enjoy it, I am able to help people by providing them better representation than I have see most of them recieve elsewhere and I can spend lots of time with my kids. If I stop enjoying it, I can and will do something else that would be far more lucrative. My life will go on without fear either way with adjustments to whatever comes down the pike.
ParticipantI get disgusted when I see it and feel bad for the buyers. There really is no system in place to check this except the buyer sueing their agent. More often than not it is due to incompetence or even worse – dual agency (Listing agent represents buyers). As for saying something to the buyer, that is defintely out of bounds for an agent and not necessary. The neighbors always seem to let them know shortly after they move in.
ParticipantPrime minus 1% with no annual fee.
ParticipantI got pictures but the best photos are indelibly etched in mind!
August 27, 2006 at 11:58 AM in reply to: Biggest Drops in 2007 and 2008; housing will fall 50% nominal terms #33521ParticipantBTW, I dont think we are close to done either. I just belive the declines will be more front loaded this time around. I could be wrong but that is my sense of things right now from what I see on the streets.
ParticipantJES
Unfortunately that is impossible to determine. Many of the home equity loans are HELOCS and there is no way of knowing what has been drawn on them. While some have drawn on them, some havent. For example, I and many friends/clients(on my recommendation) opened the biggest HELOCS we could get on our homes about 18 months ago w/o any need or plans to draw on them but simply as a free safety net for the future. If you check the tax records on my house there is a HELOC of about $400,000. What you dont see is my monthly statement with no balance.August 27, 2006 at 11:39 AM in reply to: Biggest Drops in 2007 and 2008; housing will fall 50% nominal terms #33514Participant“If anybody thinks the worst drops are here, and it will level off, you are way wrong!In the last downturn in California, per Calculated Risk, prices dropped the most in years 3-5. I wish I could find the link. This thing is just getting started.”
But it’s different this time;)
ParticipantIt’s amazing because I never really thought about it until we took off the training wheels, went outside and got started. There are moments in life that transcend all else and I look forward to stumbling upon a few more.
Anyone else out there remember learning to ride a bike the first time or anything else as momumental as this in your childhood?
ParticipantDitto.
BTW, you are right on in assessing what could be down close to 30%. The least desirable condo properties have fallen first and fastest. Others are falling rapidly also. The pace is much faster than what I would have guessed leading me to believe the biggest drops will occur sooner than later. There was a tremendous amount of froth in the market that built up from the start of 2004 with no fundamentals whatsoever. That froth is being blown off the top like the foam off a frosty mug of beer!
For example, i just saw a house close in South Carlsbad for $1.16M which sold in the frenzy of the Spring 2004 market for $1.35M. Thats a price decline of close to $200,000 on a very desireable home in a very desireable community. Its happening very very fast. The question is what will happen after the silly gains realized since late 2003 disappear. My current feeling is that the pace of declines will slow to crawl. It could change but that is what I see right now.
BTW, I spoke with a bunch of oldtimers about the coast and will have what I found out as soon as I can get to it.
-
AuthorPosts
